usatsi-23779724-1-1.jpg
Imagn Images

There are two games on the Friday WNBA slate, with the first one between the Atlanta Dream and Connecticut Sun at 9:30 p.m. ET. The second game has major injury uncertainty, as it's unclear whether No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers will clear concussion protocol ahead of the 9:30 p.m. ET matchup between the Los Angeles Sparks and Dallas Wings. Bueckers has missed the past two games, with the Wings losing both of them. 

Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? Want to play WNBA player props? Let's check out the top plays for Friday, including a futures bet, with odds from FanDuel.

Dream -10 -110 (1 unit, FD)

A lot of the talk around the WNBA has been about the two undefeated teams, the 8-0 Minnesota Lynx and 7-0 New York Liberty. But I don't think the 5-2 Dream are getting enough love, as I've been incredibly impressed with what first-year head coach Karl Smesko is accomplishing early on.

Smesko is an extremely analytics-based coach, and the Dream are shooting the third-most 3-pointers per game (30.7) and are allowing the fewest 3-point attempts (18.0) per game. That is a huge math advantage, and there could be some positive regression in store since the Dream are eighth in 3-point percentage and ninth in 3-point percentage allowed. 

The Dream also have a very balanced roster, with star guards (Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard), star bigs (Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones) and a very strong bench. The one weakness is that they've been playing without a true point guard, but that problem should disappear as Jordin Canada is reportedly targeting Friday for her season debut. Canada averaged 10.6 points and 5.8 assists over 20 games in her first season with the Dream last year. She'll add another dimension with her passing, giving the Dream's other offensive weapons even better looks. 

The Sun are clearly the worst team in the WNBA, and they have two players opponents need to focus in on: Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey. If you can slow them down, the Sun really don't have much else. The problem for Connecticut is that the Dream can throw two elite perimeter defenders in Gray and Howard on Mabrey. They did just that in their earlier matchup, limiting Mabrey to 12 points and 4-of-14 shooting. It was an even tougher showing for Charles down low against the Dream's size (Griner and Jones), making just four of 20 shots from the field. 

In Commissioner's Cup competition, there are tiebreakers that involve point differential, so it behooves big favorites to crush outmatched opponents even more. I just don't see how the Sun slow down the Dream. 

Dream to win Commissioner's Cup +1600 (O.25 units, FD)

For the Commissioner's Cup, the Dream may catch a break by playing the Indiana Fever next Tuesday. This will be the second straight road game for the Fever after taking on the Chicago Sky this Saturday, and then they will host the New York Liberty the following Saturday. The Fever obviously don't want to rush Caitlin Clark back from her injured quad, and resting her an additional week for a home game against the undefeated Liberty would be my guess for how they want to play it.  

If the Dream play the Clark-less Fever, they will be sizable favorites in their first four Commissioner's Cup games. The fifth is a road game at the Liberty, and the Dream will obviously be bigger underdogs there—the big reason behind the +1600 price to win the event since whoever finishes with the best record in the Eastern Conference makes it to the championship game. As good as the Liberty have looked, they've played true contenders just twice (Aces and Fever) among their first seven games. 

The Dream have the size to match up with Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, along with the perimeter defense to slow down Sabrina Ionescu. I absolutely think they can make that Liberty game a real battle, and I think this longshot futures play is a worthy dice roll because of it.