Third-seeded Michigan takes on 9-seed Florida State in the 2018 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET. Michigan is favored by 4.5 points, the same as where the line opened. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 143.

Before picking a side in this huge March Madness game, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying. The advanced computer model enters Friday on an astonishing 21-9 run on NCAA Tournament picks.

It was also all over Michigan's strong performance against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 -- telling readers to take the Wolverines (-2.5) against the spread and on the money line (-150). And it backed Florida State (+210) on the money line against Gonzaga. Anybody following those picks cashed in huge.

Now the computer has simulated Michigan vs. Florida State 10,000 times and come up with some surprising results.

We can tell you it's calling for 141 points to be scored, clearing the under with two to spare. And it also has a strong pick for one side of the spread, saying it hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick only over at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account Florida State's stunning run through the NCAA Tournament that has the Seminoles in the Elite 8 for the first time since 1993.

FSU, a team few thought of as a serious contender, ran through 8-seed Missouri, upset top-seed Xavier, and then dominated 4-seed Gonzaga 75-60 in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.

The Seminoles (23-11) excelled offensively during the regular season, averaging 80.9 points, but their defense has shined thus far in the tournament. No team has scored more than 70 points against them and their three opponents have averaged just 61.3.

But Florida State faces a huge challenge on Saturday against a Michigan (31-7) squad that has now won 12 straight games.

It took a dramatic buzzer-beater to slip past 6-seed Houston, but the Wolverines completely dominated 7-seed Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 by 27 points, a team that blew out North Carolina in the prior round.

The Wolverines have their own brand of dominant defense, giving up an average of just 60.7 points in the NCAA Tournament. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman is the player to watch on offense. He scored 24 points and dished out seven assists in Michigan's demolition of A&M.

Although Michigan is laying 4.5 points on Saturday, the Wolverines have been strong against the spread all season. They come into the Elite 8 at 22-12 ATS overall and 13-7 when playing away from home.

So what side should you take? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan-Florida State spread hits over half the time, all from the computer model on a blistering 21-9 run on its NCAA Tournament picks.