The Cardinals will try to put an exclamation point on a turnaround season when Louisville faces the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2019 Music City Bowl in Nashville. Louisville went 2-10 last season, but comes into Monday's game at 7-5, with losses to ranked Notre Dame and Clemson teams as well as one-time ACC heavyweights Florida State and Miami. Both teams have similar point differentials, with Louisville at minus-5.1 and Mississippi State at minus-four. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium.

The Bulldogs are 4.5-point favorites in the latest Mississippi State vs. Louisville odds, up one from the opener, while the over-under is 63.5, also up one from where the total opened. Before making your Louisville vs. Mississippi State picks, be sure to check out the 2019 Music City Bowl predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $4,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 8-2 on all picks against the spread during Championship Week. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Mississippi State vs. Louisville. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it's also generated a strong against-the-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can go to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the college football lines and trends for Mississippi State vs. Louisville:

  • Mississippi State vs. Louisville spread: Bulldogs -4.5
  • Mississippi State vs. Louisville over-under: 63.5
  • Mississippi State vs. Louisville money line: Bulldogs -189 , Cardinals +162
  • MSST: RB Kylin Hill has at least 150 rushing yards in four of the last five games.
  • LOU: RB Javian Hawkins has topped 90 rushing yards in nine of 12 games.

The model knows the Bulldogs are 6-3 against the spread in non-conference games over the past two seasons and their defense is third in the nation with 13 fumble recoveries. Safeties Jaquarius Landrews and Brian Cole make an impact, with Landrews breaking up six passes and intercepting one and Cole recovering two fumbles. Linebacker Erroll Thompson is the leader of the unit, posting 84 tackles, with Landrews second with 72 and Cole third at 67. 

Mississippi State is 13-6 against the spread over the past two seasons as a favorite and Hill has scored 10 touchdowns and has seven runs of at least 20 yards. He now faces a Louisville defense that was gutted for 517 rushing yards against Kentucky in its last game. The Bulldogs will start Tommy Stevens at quarterback after Garrett Shrader was allegedly injured in an altercation with a teammate.

The Bulldogs might look better on paper, but that doesn't mean they will cover the Louisville vs. Mississippi State spread in the Music City Bowl 2019.

The Cardinals rank 23rd in the nation in rushing, averaging 214.1 yards per game behind running back Javian Hawkins. The redshirt freshman is ninth in the nation with 1,420 yards, while sophomore Hassan Hall has added 497, and they have combined for 13 touchdowns. Quarterback Micale Cunningham has passed for 1,786 yards and 20 TDs, with receiver Tutu Atwell hauling in 12 of those and ranking 16th in the nation with 1,129 receiving yards. 

Louisville is 3-1 against the spread this season in non-conference games, and Hall also makes a splash on special teams. The running back is third in the nation in kickoff returns, averaging 31.7 yards per attempt, and returned one for a 99-yard touchdown in a win against Wake Forest.

So who wins Louisville vs. Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl 2019? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mississippi State vs. Louisville spread to back on Monday, all from the advanced model that has returned almost $4,000 on its top-rated college football picks.