With just one week to go, the list of possible College Football Playoff teams is pretty well pared down. Here is a ranking of the remaining contenders based on how likely they are to earn a spot in the playoff -- along with what they need to do to get in.

1. Clemson (12-1, ACC):  A win over Miami in the ACC title game should make the defending champions the top seed in their quest to repeat.

2. Oklahoma (12-1, Big 12): The Sooners have put together a great season and need just one more win over TCU to seal a spot in the CFP.

T3. Auburn (11-2, SEC), Georgia (12-1, SEC): The SEC champion -- whichever team wins -- has had a strong season and belongs in the playoff.  Auburn would be the first two-loss CFP participant.

5. Wisconsin (13-0, Big Ten): The Badgers did not play the greatest of schedules. If they beat Ohio State for the Big Ten title, that would be just their second win over a team in the rankings.

6. Miami (12-1, ACC): The Hurricanes hope to bounce back from a tough loss at Pitt.  They can find themselves in the playoff if they can beat Clemson for their first ACC championship.

7. Alabama (11-1, SEC): The Crimson Tide lost the wrong game, denying themselves a chance to win the SEC.  As last year taught us, though, this is not a tournament of conference champions.  Alabama's resume is not as strong as Ohio State's was last year, but neither is the competition.

8. TCU (11-2, Big 12): The Horned Frogs are looking for revenge against Oklahoma in the second inaugural Big 12 title game.  In this case, the teams would have the same record and split two games, neither of which was at TCU.  OU would have the win at Ohio State, but I think the tie would go to the league champion.

9. Ohio State (10-2, Big Ten): Ohio State's biggest problem is a loss at home to Oklahoma, which means the Sooners are the ceiling in the playoff for the Buckeyes. The committee has been borderline-religious about head-to-head this season, especially at the top of the rankings. Ohio State's second-biggest problem is a 31-point loss at unranked Iowa, which is the ugliest loss any of these teams have to date. The teams that lost to worse opponents at least put up a fight in their defeats.  Beyond that, the Buckeyes just don't have the kind of wins or schedule that separates themselves from other good teams, especially if they need to jump a team with a better record.

Now let's take a look at the scenarios that could put Alabama, TCU or Ohio State in the playoff. There are only a few teams that can potentially benefit from losses by either the Sooners or Badgers, so let's see what can happen in those scenarios.

TCU beats Oklahoma, Wisconsin beats Ohio State

The Horned Frogs move up past Oklahoma in the rankings but would still be in a battle with Alabama for the fourth playoff spot. The Frogs would have a win at Oklahoma State and a split of two games with the Sooners, neither of which was at TCU.  Alabama would have played a similar schedule with a better record and without a loss to a 7-5 team, but it would not be a conference champion. This is not a tournament of conference champions, though. I think the committee sides with Alabama.

Oklahoma beats TCU, Ohio State beats Wisconsin

This is essentially the same scenario as above, but the teams are different. This time, it is Ohio State battling with Alabama. This is probably a tougher call for the committee. OSU has better wins that TCU but worse losses. The Buckeyes would have beaten Wisconsin and Penn State, but lost to Oklahoma at home (unlike TCU) by 16 and at Iowa by 31.  That is one ugly loss -- the worst of any playoff contender. I think the committee still sides with Alabama.

TCU beats Oklahoma, Ohio State beats Wisconsin

This is the worst-case scenario for Ohio State. Not only does Oklahoma remain ahead of the Buckeyes, but TCU jumps both.  Alabama is a playoff team and so is TCU.

What about a potential two-loss Clemson?

This could cause trouble for Alabama. The Tigers would have played a better schedule than Alabama and would have a win over Auburn, the team that beat the Crimson Tide.  Still, that loss to Syracuse exists. And unlike Ohio State and TCU, Clemson would not be a conference champion. So I still think Alabama finishes ahead of the Tigers.

All of the potential playoff teams are flawed. Many of them either have a loss to an average-to-worse team, or they got annihilated in a game -- or in Ohio State's case, both. Wisconsin's flaw is its strength of schedule. Alabama's flaw is not winning the division. Auburn's flaw is having two losses.

This is the first season where there isn't a dominant team that you can count on to win this week and earn a playoff spot.  Even in 2014, which is very similar to this year in that there was only one undefeated major conference team with a questionable schedule, three of the top four teams were huge favorites in their conference title games.  There are no double-digit favorites this year.  If we get some chaos, the committee could find itself in uncharted territory.