College football recruiting: The race for the No. 1 class in the country is on

We break down the candidates for the No. 1 recruiting class in 2018

The No. 1 recruiting class in college football recruiting doesn't mean a whole lot tangibly, but don't tell that to the coaches. Urban Meyer has flat out admitted that he's driven by rankings and wants to land the No. 1 class every year. Nick Saban won't go so far as to say it publicly, but seven straight No. 1 classes points to some level of competitive energy that's going into this on his end, too.

As the Feb. 7 National Signing Day approaches, there are really only three teams that have a realistic path to landing at No. 1 for the class of 2018, according to 247Sports. Using the 247Sports Class Calculator, I took a look at what scenarios would allow each of the contenders to finish on top. Warning: it gets complicated.

Disclaimer: Because the 247Sports team rankings are formulated using the 247Sports Composite player rankings, these projections can change slightly with rankings adjustments around the recruiting industry, so consider these projections unofficial.

The Favorite: Georgia

Current rank: No. 2
Key target: Five-star cornerback Tyson Campbell
Perfect close: Campbell, four-star linebacker Quay Walker, four-star linebacker Otis Reese, four-star defensive tackle Rick Sandidge

The scenario: If Georgia lands Campbell, any other school hoping to take the top spot would need a near perfect close. Currently, Georgia is the Crystal Ball favorite for the five-star cornerback, but Miami is a strong contender as well as Alabama. If Georgia were to lose Campbell to the Tide, suddenly it's not just No. 1 in the country, but No. 1 in the SEC at stake.

Beyond Campbell, Alabama commit Quay Walker and Michigan commit Otis Reese are hardly locks, but if Kirby Smart were able to flip those two in-state prospects and secure Campbell, Georgia would be impossible to catch based on all reasonable projections. Add Sandidge to that threesome and Georgia could post a score (323.39) that only one class has topped since 2010 and that was Alabama's loaded 2017 class (323.87).

If you take Campbell out of the equation altogether, the Bulldogs can still finish with something like Sandidge, four-star athlete Mario Goodrich out of Missouri and perhaps three-star defensive end Caleb Tannor. That type of finish would still give Georgia a lofty score and a strong case for No. 1. But without Campbell, or perhaps another five-star like California CB Isaac Taylor-Stuart, the door is wide open for one of the other candidates to swoop in and capitalize.

The top contender: Ohio State

Current rank: No. 1
Key target: 5-star offensive tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere
Perfect close: Petit-Frere, four-star OT Rasheed Walker, four-star OLB Javontae Jean-Baptiste

The scenario: Even though Ohio State sits at No. 1 in the 247Sports team rankings, it has less upward mobility than Georgia and less margin for error in pulling off the No. 1 class. But the balance of power shifts if Petit-Frere comes through with a commitment. He's the No. 1 offensive tackle in the country, he's already visited Alabama this month and he has official visits set up at Ohio State and Florida in the coming weeks. No one really knows what the Tampa native is thinking, but Ohio State is in as strong of a position as anyone, particularly with the last official visit in its corner.

With Petit-Frere in the fold, Ohio State tops 315 points in the team rankings and the additions of guys like Walker and Jean-Baptiste just add some nice window dressing to walk the class towards the 320-point mark. Without Petit-Frere though, even if Ohio State sweeps on the other realistic targets left on the board, there's not a viable path to top 315 points and that is looking like the magic number to contend for a top class in this cycle.

The darkhorse: Alabama

Current rank: No. 6
Key targets: Five-star CBs Patrick Surtain Jr., Tyson Campbell, Isaac Taylor-Stuart and Nicholas Petit-Frere
Perfect close: Campbell, Taylor-Stuart, Petit-Frere, four-star Tennessee LB commit J.J. Peterson, Four-star WR Jaylen Waddle, four-star WR Justyn Ross, four-star QB James Foster (plus a decommitment out of four-star ATH Vernon Jackson)

The scenario: Among the teams currently inside the top 10, Alabama has the most upward mobility, the most vacancy in its class to add star power and the most proven track record to be able to do it. For Saban, landing an eighth straight No. 1 recruiting class wouldn't take a miracle, but it would take a late comeback that would top even what we saw against Georgia in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

The comeback starts with cornerbacks. Alabama wants guys that can compete to start immediately and while a lot of offers have gone out to cornerbacks of late, there are only a couple that would help the Tide land at No. 1. It would likely take two of the three of five-stars Patrick Surtain Jr., Tyson Campbell and Isaac Taylor-Stuart. Campbell and Surtain are high school teammates and there have been indications that the two won't play at the same college, but for the sake of this hypothetical, we'll give Alabama Taylor-Stuart (considered a lean to USC) and Campbell (which would cut the legs out from under Georgia).

Next up for Alabama would be Petit-Frere. The No. 1 offensive tackle had a great visit to Tuscaloosa last weekend and if Saban can hold off Meyer and the others, he gets the No. 1 offensive tackle in the country and knocks Ohio State's hopes at a No. 1 class down a peg.

After that, there's still work to do. Alabama would need to flip Peterson from Tennessee, beat Texas A&M on an in-state prospect in Jaylen Waddle and outlast Clemson and Auburn for Ross, capping things off with a quarterback that Texas A&M, LSU and Florida State are all chasing.

In order to make room for all those additions, the Tide would actually benefit from losing a lower ranked commit like Vernon Jackson, to one of the Texas programs chasing him.

If Alabama were to only get one five-star cornerback and miss on Petit-Frere, it's unlikely that any remaining scenario would push the Tide above the 309 mark needed to catch Ohio State or Georgia.

So what big-time recruits are headed to your favorite school? Visit 247Sports.com to see how your team's future will be changed forever. Their recruiting analysts are on the ground right now for National Signing Day. Plus, use the code SIGN2018 to get 30 days completely free on any plan they offer!