Oregon vs. James Madison prediction, pick, spread, odds: Ducks host Dukes in CFP first round
The winner of Saturday's first-round matchup faces No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl
By
Carter Bahns
•
4 min read
The first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff concludes Saturday night when No. 5 Oregon hosts No. 12 James Madison at Autzen Stadium. With one of college football's most prominent home-field advantages and a loaded roster on their side, the Ducks are commanding favorites to advance to the Orange Bowl, where No. 4 Texas Tech awaits the winner. But the Sun Belt champion Dukes will head to the Pacific Northwest with their sights set on what would be a legendary upset.
They come from different backgrounds, but the Ducks and Dukes stand side by side in the FBS rankings for scoring offense and scoring defense. Both rank inside the top 10.
These sides also have something in common in that they will say goodbye to coaches at the end of their postseason runs. James Madison coach Bob Chesney will depart to take the UCLA job at the end of the CFP, and both of Oregon's coordinators -- Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (California) -- are set to begin their duties as Power Four head coaches once the campaign closes.
A win for Oregon would be its first in the playoff since its expansion to 12 teams. It would also help remove the bitter taste left over from last postseason when the Ducks squandered their No. 1 seed and dropped out of the CFP in the quarterfinals.
Oregon vs. James Madison: Need to know
Healthy Ducks are dangerous Ducks: If Oregon gets closer to full strength ahead of its playoff run, it could be in for a long stay in the bracket. A host of Ducks participated in practice this week after missing extended time with injuries. That includes the wide receiver trio of Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Evan Stewart. Moore missed the final four games of the regular season after hurting his knee in practice, Bryant sat the final three games and Stewart has not played due to an injury he suffered in the offseason. Running back Jayden Limar and cornerback Sione Laulea could also return to the lineup.
FCS to CFP in four years: James Madison debuted at the FBS level just four years ago when former Dukes coach Curt Cignetti oversaw a successful transition from the FCS ranks. Between Cignetti and Bob Chesney, this program benefitted from two outstanding coaches in an unfathomable rise to the top of the Sun Belt and, ultimately, to the CFP. The Dukes have won no fewer than eight games in a season since making the jump to Division I's highest subdivision, and they made their first appearance in the CFP Top 25 rankings ahead of conference championship week.
Survived the gauntlet: Oregon played three of its toughest games in the final month of the season and won each of them, and suddenly the Oct. 11 loss to Indiana is far in the rearview mirror. The wins over Iowa, USC and Washington helped the Ducks re-establish themselves as national championship contenders and launched them into the No. 5 seed, which sets them up for arguably the most favorable path to the title game of any team outside the top four seeds.
Soft schedule, decidedly dominant: According to ESPN FPI, James Madison played the 121st-toughest schedule in the country thus far. Only 15 teams faced a lighter load of opponents. Does that mean the Dukes' dominance has to be taken with a grain of salt? Saturday will put that idea to the test. Running back Wayne Knight torched defenses for a Sun Belt-best 1,263 rushing yards, defensive lineman Sahir West racked up 14 tackles for loss and dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III passed for 21 touchdowns and ran for 14 more. In all, the Dukes boasted the nation's No. 10 scoring offense and No. 10 scoring defense. But now they have to prove they can do it against a national championship contender.
Where to watch Oregon vs. James Madison live
Date: Saturday, Dec. 20 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Autzen Stadium -- Eugene, Oregon
TV: TNT | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Oregon vs. James Madison prediction, picks
A staple of the Dan Lanning era at Oregon is that when the Ducks are decidedly more talented than their opponent, they leave no doubt of it on the scoreboard. James Madison is far better than the trio of non-conference foes that Oregon pounded into the dirt by a combined score of 169-23, but is it really much stronger than the Big Ten bottom-dwellers that stood no chance against this powerhouse, either? The Dukes fell by two touchdowns in their lone regular-season matchup against a Power Four team, and this one should be even more lopsided than the 28-14 loss to Louisville. Pick: Oregon -21.5
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