2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 20-team dynasty draft results, featuring prospects

By James Anderson, Rotowire

More Dynasty Content: 12-team Dynasty Startup Draft | 12-team Prospects-only Draft | Scott White's Top-100 Dynasty Rankings | Scott White's Top-100 Prospects | Top Prospects by Position

I started the RotoWire Dynasty Invitational this winter. It is a 20-team dynasty league hosted by CBS Sports Commissioner and featuring a variety of owners with varying backgrounds. The 40-round slow draft is complete and you can reference the results here:

Here are the players and their affiliations:

Eddy Almaguer, Fake Teams
James Anderson, RotoWire and Ian Kahn, TURN: Washington's Spies
George Bissell, Baseball Prospectus
Chris Blessing, Baseball HQ
Ryan Bloomfield, Baseball HQ
J.P. Breen, Milwaukee's Tailgate
Craig Goldstein and Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus
Josh Katzenstein, The Times-Picayune and Nick Shlain, 2017 SKL2 Champion
Ralph Lifshitz, Razzball
Clay Link, RotoWire
Melissa Lockard, Oakland Clubhouse/The Athletic SF
Justin Mason, Friends With Fantasy Benefits
Matt Modica, CTM Baseball
Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus/The Dynasty Guru
Rob Silver, 2016 NFBC Main Event Champion
Matt Thompson and Mike Werner, Friends With Fantasy Benefits
Tom Trudeau, The Dynasty Guru and Greg Wellemeyer, Baseball Prospectus
Derek VanRiper, RotoWire
Chris Welsh, In This League
Matt Winkelman, Phillies Minor Thoughts

LEAGUE SPECIFICS

Rosters will be filled via a 40-round slow draft this season.
Scoring is standard 5x5 rotisserie with weekly lineup periods.
23-man active rosters (1 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 MI, 1 CI, 5 OF, 2 UTIL, 9 P), 7-man bench and three injured reserve spots.
At least 10 players on each roster must be designated minor leaguers. To be eligible for a minors slot, a player must either still have their rookie eligibility* or they must be in the minors. Owners are expected to move unqualified players out of their minors positions by the beginning of the next transaction period.
In each ensuing season, owners will be required to keep 35 players from their roster, with the remaining five roster spots being filled via a five-round non-snaking offseason draft.
The order for the offseason draft will be determined by the reverse order of the previous season's standings. The only exception to this is that the top-three picks will be determined by lottery and all teams in the bottom half of the previous year's standings will be eligible. The 20th place team will get 10 chances, 19th team will get 9 and so on until the 11th place team, which will get one chance.
Any player who signed a contract with an MLB organization after the start of that current season's draft is not eligible to be picked up off waivers. The only way a new player enters the player pool is through the offseason draft.
There is no limit to the number of minor leaguers you may hold on your roster. However, every owner is expected to field the best lineup they can. For example, if a team has a minor leaguer or injured player in their starting lineup, there should not be a healthy big-league option on their bench. There may be legitimate exceptions to this, but the commissioner will hand out strikes if it is obvious that an owner is simply trying to tank for better draft odds. There will be a three-strike policy on this front, and after the third strike you will be booted from the league.
Draft pick trading is allowed after the initial draft.
Only players who have signed an MLB contract are eligible to be owned in this league.

* To qualify for rookie status, a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues, or accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the 25-player limit period, excluding time on the disabled list or in military service.

DETERMINING DRAFT ORDER - THE INVISIBLE HAND

For a league like this, with a snake draft and no limitations on how long an owner can keep a player, it would be unfair to just randomly determine draft order for the initial draft. To determine draft order, we will be using the Invisible Hand system, pioneered by Bret Sayre in his TDGX league.

Here is how it works:

Each team is allowed to bid 2018 keeper slots to acquire a draft slot of their choosing for the entire snake draft. For example, a team may bid eight keeper slots on the #1 draft slot. This means that the team will only be able to keep 27 players, instead of 35 at season's end.
A team can bid on as many slots as they want, and will be awarded their highest winning bid.
Any price in keepers paid for a draft slot only applies to the first season of the league.
Bidding for draft slots is entirely optional.
All draft slots not won by bid will be determined by random draft order, and all tiebreakers in keeper bids will also be broken by the random draft order.
Teams who lose keepers at the end of 2018 will need to fill their remaining roster spots via waivers after the 2019 offseason draft is complete. (This is different from TDGX).
Keepers spots are only lost for winning bids. If you bid and you lose, you stay at 35 keepers.
There is no Vickrey system here. If you bid 10 spots and the next bit is four, you lose 10 keeper spots.

If you would like to see a breakdown of how The Invisible Hand played out, Eddy has a good writeup here.

I welcome anyone looking to start a dynasty league to use this blueprint on CBS Sports, as I believe the 20-team/keep forever format is the best game out there, and CBS Sports Commissioner has the best tools for this kind of league.

Here is a positional breakdown of how the draft shook out. The top players are listed in the order they were selected with their overall pick in parenthesis.

First Base

Total players selected: 56

I think a pretty good case could be made that Goldschmidt should have been the second or third first baseman selected, as I think Freeman has a chance to outearn him in 2018 and beyond. People seem to be split on Bellinger. Some folks adore him, and some think that Bellinger vs. Hoskins is a legitimate debate. I think he was a fine pick at No. 12. Even though Bellinger qualifies in the outfield, I actually think he makes more sense at first base for roster construction purposes. High-quality options at this position really fall off after the top 10, whereas outfield is awfully deep. This is most apparent when we get to first base prospects, a crop headlined by the likes of Ryan McMahon, Yordan Alvarez and Jake Bauers.

Second Base

Total players selected: 50

I prefer Carlos Correa and Bryce Harper to Altuve in dynasty leagues, and was honestly pretty shocked when Altuve came off the board at No. 2 overall. The fifth and sixth second basemen on this list rank third and fourth, respectively, on my personal rankings, with Moncada specifically standing out as an absurd value. After Happ, there is a big cluster of guys who should be valued similarly, but I think Rougned Odor and Scott Kingery make for better bets in dynasty leagues than Taylor or Merrifield.

Third Base

Total players selected: 56

Nolan Arenado (7)
Kris Bryant (8)
Manny Machado (14)
Anthony Rendon (25)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (28)
Rafael Devers (31)
Josh Donaldson (36)
Miguel Sano (42)
Justin Turner (77)
Nick Castellanos (81)

That top eight is absolutely loaded, and anyone who has to choose between Rendon, Guerrero and Devers is in a tough spot, as they all have a valid case to be ranked fourth at this position. I personally rank the top three: Bryant, Machado, Arenado, as I think Arenado's value would take a significant hit if he signs elsewhere as a free agent after the 2019 season. I thought Castellanos was a reach, as I'd prefer Nick Senzel, Joey Gallo, Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw.

Shortstop

Total players selected: 86

Trea Turner (5)
Carlos Correa (6)
Francisco Lindor (10)
Corey Seager (11)
Alex Bregman (24)
Xander Bogaerts (60)
Jean Segura (62)
Gleyber Torres (65)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (68)
Javier Baez (83)

The reason there were so many more shortstops taken than other infield positions is because so many of these guys are prospects who technically still play shortstop but will likely have to move off the position in the coming years. There are also players who qualify at multiple positions but were marked as shortstop because that is where they are likely to be utilized in fantasy.

I would rank the top four: Correa, Turner, Lindor, Seager, but reasonable minds could differ on that order. Those four plus Bregman are elite dynasty-league assets, especially considering how big the drop off is from Bregman to the next best option. My personal top 10 would include Orlando Arcia and Bo Bichette, and would have Segura and Torres on the outside looking in.

Catcher

Total players selected: 36

Gary Sanchez (19)
Willson Contreras (32)
Buster Posey (111)
Francisco Mejia (124)
J.T. Realmuto (150)
Salvador Perez (172)
Austin Barnes (176)
Evan Gattis (273)
Wilson Ramos (337)
Jorge Alfaro (340)

While I'm fine taking Sanchez at the back of the first round, I don't love the value on any of the rest of these picks to be completely honest. In a one-catcher dynasty like RDI, give me Mike Zunino in the 20th round, or even a Yasmani Grandal, Yadier Molina, Brian McCann type a few rounds later than that. The bust rate on top catching prospects is sky high, and given the contact issues with Alfaro or the defensive issues with Mejia, I'd rather wait at this position.

Outfield

Total players selected: 203

Mike Trout (1)
Bryce Harper (3)
Mookie Betts (4)
Ronald Acuna (13)
Giancarlo Stanton (16)
Aaron Judge (17)
Byron Buxton (21)
Charlie Blackmon (23)
Andrew Benintendi (29)
J.D. Martinez (34)
George Springer (35)
Victor Robles (37)
Justin Upton (44)
Christian Yelich (47)
Marcell Ozuna (51)
Eloy Jimenez (53)
Domingo Santana (54)
Starling Marte (57)
Nomar Mazara (61)
Yasiel Puig (69)

While I don't advocate Betts going ahead of Carlos Correa, I agree with the exact order of the top five outfielders. I prefer Buxton to Judge, as Buxton is younger and the risk seems similar while Buxton has a higher ceiling, but that's a minor quibble. This is an incredibly deep position, which is why I personally err on the side of taking infielders early on if everything is relatively equal. Everything played out as it should have in the top 20, except for the fact that I don't see the argument for Upton going in the top 20 at this position, given his age and projected batting average going forward.

Starting Pitcher

Total players selected: 242

In a vacuum, I think Kershaw was a slight reach given his age and recent durability issues, but the team in question had a clear win-now strategy, so given that context I think it was a fine pick. Scherzer came off the board too early for my liking, but again, team context is important. If you're trying to win a dynasty league in 2018 and 2019, Scherzer should help more than Syndergaard, even though I think Thor has the clear edge over the next five years. DeGrom and Nola seem like better values than the eight pitchers who went after Syndergaard, but it obviously comes down to personal preference, as these guys are all so close in terms of likely outcomes over the next five years.

Relief Pitcher

Total players selected: 67

Kenley Jansen (66)
Craig Kimbrel (88)
Aroldis Chapman (122)
Roberto Osuna (129)
Felipe Rivero (163)
Corey Knebel (168)
Edwin Diaz (198)
Raisel Iglesias (201)
Ken Giles (211)
Cody Allen (222)

Ian and I have taken some heat for selecting Jansen where we did. Our reasoning was pretty straightforward: we think he is easily the top closer to own over the next five years, as he will never be supplanted as closer as long as he's healthy and we think there is a decent chance that he ages in a comparable manner to the other top cutter closer of all time, Mariano Rivera, who was dominant into his early 40s. I loved the value on Iglesias, whose team is awful now, but whose skills are elite. His value should only increase in the coming years. I think there is a pretty clear drop off the top eight, so once Iglesias was gone, I think people should have stopped thinking about closers for a couple rounds.

UTIL Only

Total players selected: 4

These were the four UTIL-only players to get selected. This unfolded as expected. While Pujols' contract should guarantee him steady at-bats for the foreseeable future, it's a testament to how far his skills have fallen off that he did not go in the first 500 picks.

Prospects

Total players selected: 299

Ronald Acuna (13)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (28)
Victor Robles (37)
Shohei Ohtani (43)
Eloy Jimenez (53)
Gleyber Torres (65)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (68)
Nick Senzel (93)
Alex Reyes (94)
Brendan Rodgers (99)
Bo Bichette (106)
Kyle Tucker (108)
Scott Kingery (118)
Francisco Mejia (124)
Willie Calhoun (133)
Lewis Brinson (135)
Forrest Whitley (144)
Royce Lewis (146)
Michael Kopech (147)
Keston Hiura (148)

In my estimation, Bo Bichette and Forrest Whitley should have been among the top 10 prospects off the board, while Alex Reyes and Brendan Rodgers were reaches. The Acuna, Guerrero, Robles, Jimenez picks were all at value in my opinion. We got to a point in the sixth and seventh rounds where prospects were undervalued, thanks to the fact that only one team had been steadily targeting prospects in the first five rounds. Had multiple teams been going prospect-heavy early on, the point in the draft where prospects would have been good value would have been pushed back.

In general, it seemed that teams were reaching on pitching prospects, while hitting prospects were generally going for good value in the early and middle rounds. For instance, Reyes went a round ahead of Gerrit Cole, two rounds ahead of Luis Castillo and three rounds ahead of Whitley (who is the best pitching prospect in the game). I didn't love that value.