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First, you should know I'm writing this from a position of empathy, not ridicule.
Elvis Andrus was my most drafted shortstop in March – the perfect blend of ceiling, safety and scarcity in the Round 6 range of a 12-team draft – so while there's a point-and-laugh aspect to the headline here, I can assure you that the suffering is mutual.
This isn't like the bumps and bruises suffered by Anthony Rizzo, Nelson Cruz and Wil Myers – ones that may not have even resulted in a DL stint if the minimum stay was still 15 days rather than 10. Even Xander Bogaerts, who recently fractured his ankle, was looking at only a two-week absence at last check.
Their owners are suffering now, but only in the short-term – not enough to change the complexion of their season. The recovery from a fractured elbow, though, figures to measure in weeks, possibly six or more, which is long enough, if things go bad enough, to put you in an insurmountable hole.
And while a sixth-round pick shouldn't be a make-or-break player, chances are most Andrus owners don't already have a replacement shortstop on their rosters. That position isn't abounding in DH-caliber bats, like first base and the outfield are. And if forced to turn to the waiver wire, that's when you're reminded just how thin shortstop is.
Sticking to those owned in less than 80 percent of CBS Sports leagues...
| Player | Ownership percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Yangervis Solarte
TOR 2B
| | | | 79 |
Asdrubal Cabrera
NYM 2B
| | | | 58 |
Marcus Semien
OAK SS
| | | | 70 |
Dansby Swanson
ATL SS
| | | | 59 |
Addison Russell
CHC SS
| | | | 62 |
Amed Rosario
NYM SS
| | | | 50 |
Ketel Marte
ARI SS
| | | | 43 |
Orlando Arcia
MIL SS
| | | | 52 |
Chris Owings
ARI RF
| | | | 60 |
Jose Peraza
CIN 2B
| | | | 30 |
Brandon Crawford
SF SS
| | | | 25 |
Freddy Galvis
SD SS
| | | | 22 |
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That's how I'd rank them.
I excluded a few – notably, Tim Beckham, Eduardo Escobar and and J.P. Crawford – who I don't have much hope of making a worthwhile contribution, but even without them, it's an uninspiring group. In fact, I'd say you'd need one of the top four or five to feel like you can weather the storm, and that's only if Dansby Swanson's refined approach continues to produce a high BABIP and Addison Russell remains a fixture up the middle for the Cubs.
And specifically for those Andrus owners who play in categories leagues as opposed to points, there aren't many from this group who can match Andrus' contributions in stolen bases, which is essential in an environment where so few exist. Jose Peraza has the aptitude for it, but only if he gets on base, and he may not be worth the trouble given his inability to do so. Amed Rosario, Ketel Marte and Orlando Arcia probably could be worthwhile base stealers if they were so inclined, but they have just one attempt between them this year.
Bottom line is most Andrus owners should probably look into making a trade – and I say "look into" because trading is hard. Particularly in your current predicament, you can be sure some of your more dastardly competitors will go for the gouge, and you don't want to be helping them more than you help yourself. If someone really does have a shortstop to spare, you can wait him out, trusting he'll look to shed the excess eventually (even if just to free up a roster spot) and rely on the rest of your roster to pick up the slack in the meantime. Who knows? Maybe you'll make all the way to Andrus' return no worse for wear.
But just to be sure, I see two players in particular who I'd like to acquire – one in a points league and one in a categories league. I like them not because they're the best but because they were passed over on Draft Day, which means even though they've started the year hot enough to be owned in more than 80 percent of CBS Sports leagues, their owners don't have great stakes in them and most likely have someone else they drafted to start at shortstop.
If they're reasonable and rational, they'll hear you out.
The first is for points leagues, and it's a player sustained so far by a hollow batting average. But Andrelton Simmons has continued to elevate the ball like he did a year ago, when he surprised with 14 home runs, and is also a reasonable bet for 15-plus steals with Mike Scioscia as his manager. That batting average is made possible in part by one of the lowest strikeout rates among hitters. He has just three in 58 plate appearances so far, which of course is a huge plus in standard-scoring points leagues. And while I don't think his batting average or strikeout rate will remain quite this good for long, I do think the sum of Simmons' contributions will come close to last year's, which made him, in a way no one cared to acknowledge, the No. 4 shortstop in standard points leagues.
Granted, that's probably as good as it gets for him, but you'll take a chance on that best-case scenario if the price is right. Maybe a closer downgrade or your fifth or sixth starting pitcher will get it done.
My target for categories leagues may be a fair bit costlier because, by now, the Tim Anderson owner is probably reveling in his unexpected steals source, as scarce as stolen bases were on Draft Day. And to be fair, that's why you're targeting Anderson yourself. But there's a chance the Anderson owner drafted one of the stud shortstops and is struggling to fit his new prize in his lineup, allowing you to swoop in and generously offer a better fit (be it an outfielder, a third baseman or whatever).
But why this particular hot hand and not someone like Swanson? It's not just that steals are scarce. They're also slump-proof, and by that I mean one of the few stats that are as much a matter of intent as ability. To steal a base, a player must actively decide to steal a base, and that's a decision Anderson has been making more and more since last September, when he stole nine of his 15 bases for all of 2017.
"It's just confidence. It's way up," he told reporters Saturday. "I don't feel like nobody can throw me out. I'm going to keep running and see what happens."
So far this season, he's 6 for 6, so we shouldn't be doubting the intent or the ability.
