2016 Fantasy Basketball Draft Prep: Breakouts 2.0

Are Hassan Whiteside and Giannis Antetokounmpo ready to make the jump to superstardom? Chris Towers highlights four tiers of breakouts.

Towers 2.0: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts

A breakout in Fantasy can be something different to everyone.

It can be a player who makes the leap to superstardom or one who goes from a solid starter to a star. It can also be someone who joins the ranks of the must-start after being matchup dependent. There just isn't one answer, because every player starts from a different place, and will cost something different on Draft Day.

With that in mind, I thought it made sense to break my breakouts down in tiers for the last batch. It allows me to cover a wider swath of players, while giving Fantasy players different targets throughout their draft. If I can land one or two players from each tier here, I'll feel very good about my chances this season.

Superstar-level breakouts

Last year's examples: Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard

Look, I'm not going to overreact to preseason numbers, especially not after only three games. So, I'm just going to present Hassan Whiteside's per-36 numbers without comment:

29 points, 19 rebounds, 5 blocks

You could argue Whiteside made the jump to superstar level last season, especially in the second half of the season after he moved to the bench. In 28 games after the All-Star break, Whiteside averaged 17.5 points, 13.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per game. And he did that on a team that still needed to find shots for Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Luol Deng.

With the mass exodus of talent away from Miami this offseason, Whiteside is pretty clearly the No. 1 option. What can he do in a bigger role? Is 20-15-4 unrealistic? That might be on the higher end of expectations, but it doesn't seem wholly unrealistic to me.

Look at it this way: If all Whiteside does is replicate his second-half numbers of last season (17-13 with 3.4 blocks), he will reach a level only three players have ever done for a full season: Kareem, Hakeem, and Shaq. You would call them "superstars," right?

Another players who just has to sustain his second-half numbers to hit this level is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He took a big step forward overall, but really vaulted into the next level after taking the reins as the Bucks' point guard in the second half of the season. Antetokounmpo put up 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 3.3 combined blocks and steals per game in 28 post-All-Star Break games.

The trick will be doing so when other teams are ready for it, and with even less shooting on the floor with the injury to Khris Middleton. Antetokounmpo is still developing at age 21, but we've already seen flashes of his superstar potential, and it wouldn't be a total surprise if he ended up challenging for the No. 1 overall spot by next year.

Star-level breakouts

Last year's examples: Antetokounmpo, Kemba Walker

Victor Oladipo might actually be a cautionary tale for expecting players to carry post-ASB success over to the next season. He took a big step forward in the second half of 2014-15, averaging 20.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, but couldn't carry that over in 2015-16. An inconsistent role early last season may have contributed to that, however, because he once again took a big step forward in the second half last season, and is looking to carry that over into a big Year 4.

The good news is that he gets to do so on a Thunder team that has quite a bit more help for him than his old Magic squads did. Oladipo is the unquestioned No. 2 option on this team after Russell Westbrook, and should find open looks a bit easier to come by as result. An up-and-down career may be finally trending up for good this season.

Running an offense full time demands a lot more from a player than the occasional fill-in opportunity, but we can still get a sense of what Dennis Schroder is capable of by looking at what he has done when he has had the opportunity. Schroder has started 16 games in his NBA career, and has averaged 13.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 6.9 assists per-game.

The Hawks saw enough from Schroder last season to move on from long-time starting point guard Jeff Teague, a guarantee that Schroder would get his first chance at the full-time job this season. Schroder is still a bit raw, capable of brilliant drives to the rim as well as maddening decisions in the pick-and-roll, but this is a perfect breakout opportunity.

Entering Year 4, Schroder has a big role waiting for him, and could jump into the first two rounds on Draft Day by next season.

Because he's been in the spotlight for so long, and expectations have been so high for him since high school, it sometimes feels like we don't properly appreciate how good Andrew Wiggins has been so far.

At just 20, he took on a huge role for the Timberwolves last season, averaging 20.7 points in 35.1 minutes per game, often while guarding the opposing team's best perimeter player and playing in an offensive system out of the mid-90's. That he wasn't hugely efficient, or didn't rebound well, or is still developing as a playmaker, almost feels beside the point. Wiggins is still developing, and it can be a bit too easy to focus on the present when it comes to a player who won't even be 22 until after this year's All-Star break.

Wiggins does have things he needs to improve. He isn't a strong shooter and gets tunnel vision when he puts the ball on the floor, but the floor is already high enough that it doesn't take much progression for him to get to the star level.

Starter-level breakouts

Last year's examples: Evan Fournier, Zach LaVine

Goran Dragic has played at a star level before, when he averaged 20.3 points and 5.9 assists per game in 2013-14. Things have been downhill since, though you can make a pretty compelling argument that it hasn't been Dragic's fault. He has been stuck in less-than-ideal situations, both in Phoenix and Miami, playing next to ball-dominant guards in Eric Bledsoe and Dwyane Wade. That won't be a problem this season, as we covered in Whiteside's section.

The Heat are pretty barren when it comes to ballhandlers, so Dragic has little competition for touches this season. This should be a bounce-back season for Dragic, even if he never returns to the All-NBA heights he hit at his peak.

Jeremy Lin has established himself as a solid NBA contributor over the past few years. He's good enough to start on some teams at point guard, but probably isn't one of the 20 or so best in the league. That's why he came off the bench behind Kemba Walker in Charlotte, and was in and out of the starting five with Patrick Beverley in Houston.

Lin won't have anything close to competition in Brooklyn this season, however, as the Nets might just be the least talented team in the NBA. Lin is probably their second-best player, and he should get all of the minutes and shots he can handle this season.

Efficiency could be an issue for him, but Lin's ability to get to the free-throw line -- along with a roughly league-average 3-point shot -- should help him remain a solid scorer, and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw him average something like 15 points and 7 assists per game for the Nets.

The Jazz have built a deep, well-rounded roster, which should allow them to survive if they run into a rash of injuries like last season. They would certainly hope to avoid that, but they've already been struck by a bit of bad luck, with Gordon Hayward likely out for the first few weeks of the season with a broken finger. Rodney Hood was already a favorite breakout candidate around these parts, and Hayward's early-season absence only makes him an even more attractive option.

Hood is an emerging playmaker with a sweet stroke, and he should have even more opportunities to show those assets off in the first month or so of the season. Coming off a season where he averaged 14.5 points and 2.7 assists per game, he has even more room to grow.

The 2015-16 rookie class ushered in the next era of big men in the NBA, and they were mostly the kind of skilled, rim-protecting, floor-stretching bigs NBA teams are desperately searching for. Myles Turner wasn't quite Karl-Anthony Towns or Kristaps Porzingis good, but he showed some really impressive flashes.

As a raw 19-year-old, Turner averaged 10.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 22.8 minutes per game, despite missing time with injuries. He showed range out to the 3-point line and, in the playoffs, showed his real potential as a rim-protector, swatting 3.3 shots in just 28.1 minutes per game.

The addition of Al Jefferson could cut into Turner's playing time if Jefferson shows a spark, but the better bet is Turner keeping his starting job all season and adding even more to his game.

Clint Capela is going to have a pretty simple role on offense this season -- set screens, roll to the rim and dunk everything. Given his skill set, this should work out very well for him. Capela is going to be surrounded by shooters and running tons of pick and rolls with James Harden, a willing and gifted passer who should get even more assists this season in Mike D'Antoni's offense.

Many of them will go to Capela, who shot 68.4 percent as the roll man in pick and rolls last season. Capela's poor free-throw shooting -- 35.9 percent for his career -- is a real problem. But he should hit a high percentage of his shots, while adding good numbers in points, rebounds and both defensive categories, making him a solid target as a No. 2 center.