Week 6 Fantasy Hoops planner
Lance Stephenson was supposed to make the Hornets and Kemba Walker better. Chris Towers says it has been much the opposite in his Week 6 planner.
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Last season, the Hornets rode a top-flight defense and top-heavy offense to a surprise playoff berth, and appeared ready to take the next step after another solid offseason. The addition of Lance Stephenson was supposed to boost the offense, and it was expected to change the team's Fantasy outlook as well.
However, with 18 games under their belts, it is pretty clear everything that went right for the Hornets has disappeared. Jefferson is still a load in the post, but the backcourt combination of Stephenson and Kemba Walker is an outright disaster. With the team playing just twice this week, it is best to sit everyone except Jefferson in Week 6 (Dec. 1-7); however, will Fantasy owners even want to go back to this well beyond that?
Walker shot just 39.3 percent from the field a year ago, but managed to remain Fantasy relevant thanks to his high usage rate. With just Jefferson around to split touches, Walker posted a 25.8 usage rate a year ago, which led to 17.7 points and 6.1 assists per game, the best marks of his three-year career.
This season, his usage is down to 22.8 percent of the team's possessions, which was to be expected while playing alongside Stephenson. However, he is still averaging 7.6 minutes of possession per game, according to NBA.com's SportsVU tracking data, compared to 7.7 a year ago. He is still getting plenty of opportunities with the ball in his hands. The biggest problem is, more of his passes have gone to Stephenson than any other player, and Stephenson is shooting just 30.4 percent on assist opportunities created by Walker.
And Walker has returned the favor to Stephenson, shooting just 35.8 percent on his assist opportunities. This was always going to be an awkward fit, since neither player is much of a 3-point shooter, and both need the ball in their hands to thrive. You can get away with one non-shooter in the backcourt, but the floor gets awfully tight if neither of your primary ball-handlers can shoot, and that is what the Hornets are dealing with right now.
Jefferson's post-up game carries with it a ton of gravity, which forces defenses to crash inside, something they can do with relative impunity when Walker and Stephenson are shooting a combined 24.3 percent from 3-point range. Walker and Stephenson both need room to get to the basket, and that room simply isn't there when teams know they can help off the perimeter.
You almost have to assume both players will improve down the road, because they've been so disastrously bad so far. However, nearly one-quarter of the season is in the books, and the duo has already played 390 minutes together, so it's not like we're dealing with a terribly small sample size here.
If you own either Stephenson or Walker, you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Neither player has much trade value at all, but both have played so poorly that it's hard to justify sticking them in your starting lineup every week. Bench them both in Week 6, and start fielding offers for trades, because it is hard to see things getting much better.
Start 'Em
Arron Afflalo, Nuggets (49 percent started)
The Nuggets
have been a tough team to pin down this season, especially from a
Fantasy perspective. They have depth at every position, which makes it
easy for coach Brian Shaw to ride the hot hand if he wants to. Of
course, early in the season, there were no hot hands on the roster;
Afflalo shot just 37.9 percent through the first seven games, and he
wasn't the exception. He has found himself in nine games since, scoring
more than 15 points in eight of those games, while averaging 18.2 points
per game on 49.6 percent from the field. The Nuggets have a solid
four-game slate coming up in Week 6, and Afflalo should be viewed as a
solid option at this point.I would start Afflalo over ... Lance Stephenson, Avery Bradley, Jeremy Lin
Greivis Vasquez, Raptors (9 percent started)
The loss of DeMar DeRozan is going to drastically alter the Raptors' plans for
the next month or so, and it's tough to say exactly how they will move
forward without him. Vasquez is a pass-first point guard who needs the
ball in his hands, which can make him a somewhat awkward fit next to Kyle Lowry, however the duo has worked well together in the past.
Vasquez scored 35 points with nine assist over the last two games, and
could be in line for 25-plus minutes per game moving forward, as the
team runs through more two-point-guard lineups in DeRozan's absence. The
Raptors have a decent slate of matchups on the way, so Vasquez could be
a solid option. I would start Vasquez over ... Isaiah Thomas, Ben McLemore, Gary Neal
Mo Williams, Timberwolves (48 percent started)
Williams
is hardly the guy you think of when thinking about point guards who
distribute the ball around, but that's exactly who he has been for the
Timberwolves. He has three double-digit assist games in his last four
and is averaging 7.8 overall over the last nine. His scoring hasn't been
particularly impressive, but assists are always going to be one of the
rarest commodities in Fantasy, making Williams a solid option at this
point, even with a subpar schedule on the way. I would start Williams
over ... Kemba Walker, Isaiah Thomas, Reggie Jackson
Bust Alert
Evan Fournier, Magic (49 percent started)
I am far away
from giving up on Fournier, who is still seeing 30-plus minutes and
10-plus shots per game consistently. However, Fournier is always going
to be a marginal Fantasy option given how little he does when he isn't
scoring. When his shot is falling, he makes for a solid source of
shooting and scoring. However, he is shooting just 36.4 percent from the
field and 25.0 percent on 3-pointers over the last five games, and can
be sat for safer options this week.
Forward
Start 'Em
K.J. McDaniels, 76ers (20 percent started)
On a 76ers
team bereft of hope, McDaniels stands out as a rare exception. He has
been about as inconsistent as a second-round pick can be expected, but
the flashes of brilliance have been blinding, relative to the rest of
the team's failures. He is coming off the best two-game stretch of his
career, as he combined for 39 points, 19 rebounds and three blocks in
those two games. McDaniels is hard to rely on, but he has also made it
impossible for the Sixers to ignore him, and Fantasy owners should
follow suit. The Sixers face a tough schedule, but they also play four
times, which could give him plenty of opportunities to fill up the box
score, something he does expertly when he's on. I would start Morris
over ... Luol Deng, Jeff Green, Jordan Hill
DeMarre Carroll, Hawks (36 percent started)
Carroll is
something of a forgotten man, but he has been a solid, dependable
Fantasy option over the last two seasons, especially for category-based
formats. Over the last five games, he is averaging 12.8 points, 4.2
rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 3-pointers per game, while
turning the ball over just two times total. He is a supremely useful
Fantasy option, and the Hawks have a great set of matchups on the way
for Week 6, with the third-best schedule lined up. I would start
Carroll over ... Shawne Williams, Solomon Hill, Corey Brewer
Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks (18 percent started)
With how
inconsistent Ilyasova has been in recent weeks, this is definitely one
that could come back to haunt you. However, he has emerged as a
fire-starter off the bench for the Bucks, averaging 15.6 points per game
over the last five in just 21.8 minutes. He is shooting over 50 percent
from the field for the season and appears to be fitting in well in Jason
Kidd's offense, and could be a decent contributor of shooting and
scoring if you need to fill a lineup spot in Week 6. I would start
Ilyasova over ... Michael Kidd-Gilchrist,
Marcus Morris, Harrison Barnes
Bust Alert:
Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers (22 percent started)
Thompson
recorded a solid double-double in place of Anderson Varejao as a starter Saturday, dropping 13 points and 11
rebounds in the win. With Varejao dealing with a rib injury, Thompson
may be in line for a larger workload this week, however this isn't the
best week for him to take advantage of that. The Cavaliers have a tough
slate of games coming up, with the Bucks and Raptors ranking among the
stingiest defenses in the league. The Cavaliers' lack of depth in the
frontcourt can make Thompson a useful option, but a three-game schedule
makes him a tough play.
Center
Start:
Boris Diaw, Spurs (21 percent started)
It's easy to
overlook Diaw, who rarely puts up big numbers and is an unconventional
choice at the center position. He has blocked just six shots all season,
and can leave a lot to be desired as a rebounder. However, his specific
skill set is so tough to find at the center position, given his 3-point
shooting and high assist rate, and he could be in for a big week coming
up, with matchups against three bottom-12 defenses. If you've got a big
rebounder at another position, Diaw makes plenty of sense. I would
start Diaw over... Brook Lopez, Miles Plumlee, Anderson Varejao
Timofey Mozgov, Nuggets (34 percent started)
Like many
Nuggets players, Mozgov is enjoying a solid stretch of play, averaging
12.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game over the last five.
That now brings his season averages to 10.0 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.4
blocks, solid numbers all around, especially once you take into account
his strong percentages across the board. The Nuggets have a decent
schedule on the way in Week 6, but Mozgov has probably reached the point
where you can feel OK about starting him even if the matchup isn't
great. I would start Lopez over... Nikola Pekovic, Andrew Bogut, Anderson Varejao
Bust Alert:
Kelly Olynyk, Celtics (30 percent started)
Olynyk has
been a useful Fantasy option at times this season, averaging 11.2 points
and 5.8 rebounds per game so far. However, his defensive contributions
have left much to be desired, and the team recently moved him to a bench
role as a result. Olynyk is skilled enough to still be productive off
the bench, but he is stuck in a bad slump right now, which makes it hard
to trust him. The Celtics have a solid week of games on the way, but
Olynyk is shooting just 32.4 percent from the field over the last five,
and is best left on your bench.
Schedule preview
(A higher strength-of-schedule ranking is a good thing, based on points allowed)
Hawks: Four games, 3rd in strength of schedule
Celtics: Four games,
5th in strength of schedule
Nets: Three games, 25th in strength of
schedule
Hornets: Two games, 28th in strength of schedule
Bulls:
Three games, 19th in strength of schedule
Cavaliers: Three games,
26th in strength of schedule
Mavericks: Four games, 7th in strength
of schedule
Nuggets: Four games, 11th in strength of schedule
Pistons:
Four games, 2nd in strength of schedule
Warriors: Three games, 20th
in strength of schedule
Rockets: Three games, 14th in strength of
schedule
Pacers: Three games, 17th in strength of schedule
Clippers:
Three games, 9th in strength of schedule
Lakers: Four games, 13th in
strength of schedule
Grizzlies: Three games, 30th in strength of
schedule
Heat: Four games, 22nd in strength of schedule
Bucks:
Four games, 10th in strength of schedule
Timberwolves: Four games,
24th in strength of schedule
Pelicans: Four games, 15th in strength
of schedule
Knicks: Four games, 8th in strength of schedule
Thunder:
Three games, 18th in strength of schedule
Magic: Four games, 6th in
strength of schedule
76ers: Four games, 23rd in strength of schedule
Suns:
Three games, 29th in strength of schedule
Trail Blazers: Three games,
21st in strength of schedule
Kings: Three games, 27th in strength of
schedule
Spurs: Four games, 4th in strength of schedule
Raptors:
Three games, 12th in strength of schedule
Jazz: Three games, 16th in
strength of schedule
Wizards: Four games, 1st in strength of schedule
Waiver-wire
Add these players
Rodney Stuckey, G, Pacers (64 percent owned), worth $5 FAAB bid
Like
pretty much everyone on the Pacers, Stuckey has been sidelined by
nagging injury issues this season. However, he has been healthy lately,
and is doing exactly what we expected coming into the season, providing
solid scoring for a team that is totally desperate for it. He is
averaging 16.2 points and 2.8 assists per game over the last five games,
despite playing just 27.8 minutes, and should remain a primary option
for this Pacers squad. Given his current role, Stuckey is a worthwhile
investment if you need guard help.
Donatas Motiejunas, F, Rockets (25 percent owned), worth $2
FAAB bid
Motiejunas has lingered as an intriguing option for the
Rockets as frontcourt depth, but has failed to do justify any current
day value before the last few weeks. However, with Dwight Howard dealing with a knee injury, Motiejunas has stepped up
lately, dropping 20 points in two of the last three games while
averaging 14.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game over the last five.
Motiejunas probably won't do much when Howard is around, but he is
establishing himself as a solid handcuff option, at the very least, and
makes for some solid depth.
Lou Williams, G, Raptors (20 percent owned), worth $10 FAAB
bid; Greivis Vasquez, G, Raptors (26
percent owned), worth $5 FAAB bid; Terrence Ross,
F, Raptors (61 percent; owned), worth $5 FAAB bid
Sorting through the
potential DeRozan replacements is going to be a chore, because his
absence leaves such a huge hole in the team's plans. DeRozan was 12th in
the league in usage rate prior to his injury, so the Raptors are going
to have to figure out how to live without him, something they've rarely
done, as DeRozan has missed just 11 games in his career. Williams has
already been stepping up his play recently, and seems to be the most
natural fit to step up, since he is arguably the team's best scorer
left. However, both Vasquez and Ross should see more responsibility, and
are well worth taking a flier on.
Droppable players
Jeremy Lamb, G, Thunder (45 percent owned); Anthony Morrow, G, Thunder (15 percent owned)
Morrow and Lamb
had their chances to prove themselves with Russell Westbrook out, but neither showed enough consistency to make
Fantasy owners take much note. Both players have the ability to get hot
and drop 15-18 points on any given night, but they just don't do enough
to make up for the nights when the shot isn't falling. With Westbrook
out, Reggie Jackson should see plenty
of time at shooting guard, and the looming return of Kevin Durant is only going to further push Lamb and Morrow down the
team's hierarchy.
Chris Copeland, F, Pacers (45 percent owned)
Even before
David West returned, Copeland's value was starting to fizzle. Copeland
got hot early in the season and was a solid scoring option for the
Pacers, but his Fantasy value always seemed to have an expiration date.
With West back from a lingering injury, Copeland has played just 40
minutes in the team's last two games, and that should be about what we
expect from him moving forward. In deeper category-based leagues, his
shooting still has some value, but Copeland probably has no worth in
standard Fantasy scoring leagues.















