2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Don't wait to pick Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson teased Fantasy owners with bombastic numbers in barely seven games last season. And his recovery from a major knee injury is not going to stop people from targeting him in drafts this summer.
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There wasn't a harder gut-punch last season than when the Texans announced Deshaun Watson had torn his right ACL. The quarterback who averaged 29.8 Fantasy points over his previous five games was suddenly gone, forcing owners to replace him with the likes of Josh McCown, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco.
We couldn't wait to get Watson back -- and we don't have to wait any longer. Watson is one of Fantasy's most popular quarterbacks, sure to be targeted by at least one person in every single league. You could understand why if you extrapolated his rookie numbers over 16 games — he was on-pace for 3,883 pass yards, 615 rush yards and 47 total touchdowns.
The excitement is understandable — even for a guy coming off a torn ACL, and even if it's his second ACL tear in four years (he tore his left one in 2014).
Watson's injury is one of two big knocks on him, but believe it or not, it seems to be a non-issue. As recently as the Texans' mid-June minicamp, Watson not only participated in individual and 7-of-7 drills, but did so without a brace. He threw very well, according to reports, but won't be rushed back into team drills at training camp.
"You can't throw the kitchen sink at him when he comes back just thinking that, all of a sudden, snap a finger and he's back to full-go," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said in June. "I think we'll have a really good plan for how many reps he gets relative to practice, relative to the preseason games. ... I do feel that when it comes from a mental standpoint, I feel really good about what we're going to be able to throw at him from a playbook standpoint."
Easing Watson back into practice does nothing to assure fans he'll last 16 games, but at the very least we know the Texans are acutely aware of Watson's durability. And the coaching staff isn't afraid of it.
How do we know? The other big knock on Watson is whether or not he'll be as prolific as he was in 2017. Twenty-one total touchdowns in seven games? Who does that?!
Well, the Texans hope Watson keeps it up. They've gone as far as to reconfigure their entire offense to suit Watson's strengths. They wouldn't bother doing that if they didn't believe in him or had a plan to keep him upright.
"Our offense is going to be totally different than it's been in the past, even than it was last year," O'Brien told Houston's ESPN 97.5 Radio back in March. " ... We have a different type of quarterback. We have a guy that can do a lot of different things, he plays the game in a very unique way. We've looked at a lot of different things to try and incorporate and we're going to try them out this spring."
The interpretation of this is Houston will continue to threaten defenses with Watson's arm and legs. It should mean plenty of new-school stuff like option plays including RPOs as well as the kind of more traditional schematics you might expect such as play-action and bootlegs. They're making Watson comfortable while making defenses uncomfortable. It's good news.
"My game's not changing," Watson told ESPN in April. " ... A lot of people would think that I'd come back hesitant, but I'm going to make sure I come back more forceful and with a stronger and more intense attitude."
The offensive alterations happen to mesh very well with what's surrounding Watson on offense. The Texans have a receiving corps heavy on speed (Will Fuller, rookie Keke Coutee) but anchored by the vacuumed-handed DeAndre Hopkins. Their run game is just OK — Lamar Miller hasn't evolved into a dominant rusher and second-year back D'Onta Foreman might begin the season on the PUP list. Their offensive line is also just OK, though it should be better than it was last season when Watson was ducking and dodging defenders while making plays downfield.
Better yet, our independent schedule analysis suggests the Texans have the third-best passing schedule this season. Games against the Jaguars twice, the Patriots and the Broncos (three of which are on the road) might make you feel uneasy, but let's not forget about Watson waltzing into Seattle and dropping 402 pass yards and four touchdowns on the Seahawks in his last game.
Watson has potential to finish as the No. 1 overall quarterback in Fantasy, which is why he's considered among the top-four quarterbacks you can draft this summer. In fact, he might be one of maybe three passers who late-round quarterback truthers might draft as an exception.
It would be stunning if he lasted into Round 6 in any league. That's just a freaky good bargain. Round 5 is probably going to be prime Watson-drafting time, especially by those people who didn't intend to take a quarterback early but can't resist Watson's upside.
However, it'll be Round 4 where the people who "have to have" Watson will pounce. I can't say I blame them. The difference between a player in Round 4 and Round 5 isn't that big this year, so it's not going to make or break anyone's Fantasy team by making that little reach for Watson.
Once Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady get picked, be prepared to see Watson go very shortly after, potentially before Russell Wilson. The hype is justified and the risk involved is definitely worth the reward.

















