2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Handicapping the league's most intriguing receiver groups
Who should you draft first in Minnesota? What about with the Rams? Dave Richard evaluates all the non-obvious receiving corps to make a call on who should be drafted first from each one.
There's a difference between a No. 1 Fantasy receiver and a No. 1 real-life receiver. Every NFL team technically has a No. 1 receiver. Most Fantasy squads have at least one No. 1 option -- someone expected to give you, say, 15-plus PPR points per week. Some managers will have two on a team. Some might have none.
What we're setting out to do here is find the No. 1 receiver on every team. There's no question that some NFL rosters have two, even three receivers (Rams, Vikings) who are better than another team's top guy (Miami, Washington). By sorting through the top of every depth chart, we'll have an idea on which receivers have sneaky good value, and which ones don't.
Teams with such obvious No. 1 receivers that we're not going to waste time on them: 49ers, Bears, Browns, Buccaneers, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Jets, Lions, Patriots, Raiders, Saints, Seahawks, Titans
Teams with obvious No. 1 receivers but potentially good (and not obvious) No. 2 options for Fantasy so we'll spend a little time on them: Packers, Steelers, Texans
Los Angeles Rams
Wideouts: Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp
ADP: Woods 45th, Cooks 47th, Kupp 53rd
2018 PPR FP/gm: Kupp 16.5, Woods 15.9, Cooks 14.6
We know Cooks has topped 1,100 total yards and six scores for four straight seasons, though the numbers have come on an uneven basis (15 Fantasy points one week, four the next). We know Kupp is healed from a torn ACL and is a mismatch slot receiver who comes up big in the red zone (8 of 11 career touchdowns inside the 20). Woods is coming off a career year where he lined up all over the place, but he did it in a season where Kupp missed essentially nine games. He actually had more targets than Kupp and Cooks in the first four games of 2018 when all three were healthy, but was third in yardage and second in touchdowns.
The first one I'd draft: Cooks. He's got the pedigree, the track record and the upside to make him start-worthy each week (even if he's not a very consistent receiver). Until Kupp proves he can keep up his production for most of 16 weeks and Woods has another grand season, this is just how it is.
Draft more than one? All three have a very good chance at finishing in the top 24 at receiver. Between late Round 3 and mid-Round 5, all three will get taken. It's asking a lot to choose and start two Rams each week, but they'll only crater your score because of injury, not because of scheme or target share. They all get a lot. If I had to draft two, it would be Cooks and Kupp, both of whom had 12-plus PPR points in the same game five times and eight-plus non-PPR points four times in 2018.
Minnesota Vikings
Wideouts: Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen
ADP: Diggs 38th, Thielen 29th
2018 PPR FP/gm: Diggs 17.0, Thielen 18.7
Diggs is well established as the Vikings' top outside receiver. Over the past two years we saw Thielen thrive in the slot. You'd think he'd stick around there, but the Vikings seem to like up-and-coming wideout Chad Beebe so much that they could give him slot reps and kick Thielen to the outside. That's not a death-knell for Thielen, but it's the slot role that helped him succeed last year. He could certainly lose some target share.
The first one I'd draft: Diggs. This isn't to say Thielen won't be any good, but let's just say I don't expect him to run off eight straight 100-yard games again. Anything Beebe does will take some targets away, but if Dalvin Cook is healthy, he'll suck up touches that were otherwise targets last season. Thielen has just seven games over two seasons where both he and a Vikings runner have posted 15-plus PPR points (and 10-plus non-PPR points). He wasn't nearly as consistent in 2017 as he was in 2018, and my fear is that he reverts to that inconsistency again in 2019.
Cincinnati Bengals
Wideouts: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd
ADP: Green 50th, Boyd 69th
2018 PPR FP/gm: Green 16.0, Boyd 15.4
Normally this is a no-brainer, but Green's late July ankle surgery combined with some other legit concerns have made this worth discussing. He's unlikely to play in Week 1 and no one can confidently say when he'll be back on the field at 100 percent. We also can't confidently say he'll finish the year healthy as two of his past three seasons have ended early because of injury. Worse yet, Green's yards per game average has slid from 80-plus yards per game over five straight campaigns to 67.4 yards per game in 2017 and 77.1 yards per game in 2018. Boyd has mastered the slot role and figures to thrive in Zac Taylor's offense that specializes in using a big slot target.
The first one I'd draft: Boyd. For Fantasy purposes, I'll take the healthy receiver who figures to see plenty of targets whether he shares the field with Green or not. Boyd averaged 12.8 PPR points over effectively six games without Green, which isn't too bad, and 17.3 PPR points per game with him. That's actually not too far off from the 17.8 PPR point average Green had in his first eight games last season.
Draft both? I don't hate it, but where you draft them matters. They each had at least 15 PPR points in half of their eight games together and could see that floor rise given the scheme. I'm not sure if I even would want both at their current ADPs to make it happen -- if you get Green in Round 5 and Boyd somehow slips to late Round 6 or Round 7, go with it.
Carolina Panthers
Wideouts: D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel
ADP: Moore 77th, Samuel 131st and rising
2018 PPR FP/gm: Moore 9.1, Samuel 9.8 (both were between 11.5 and 12.0 in final seven weeks)
These guys are fairly similar in that they're both yards-after-catch threats. Moore is more polished as a receiver, but Samuel has closed that gap this summer and might have an edge in terms of pure speed. But if both are used the same in the Panthers offense and both have good target volume from week to week, then both can be started each week as No. 2/No. 3 types of receivers in PPR (closer to No. 3 receivers in non-PPR). That happened late last season when over the last seven weeks of last season, both Moore and Samuel had 10-plus PPR points five times.
The first one I'd draft: Whichever one you can draft second. For now that's Samuel, but his stock is rocketing while Moore's ADP is slowly fading. They were so similar toward the end of the year, and if that carries over then taking the value pick of the two makes the most sense.
Draft both? It's a play that's aimed at being safe, but you could do it. Both should combine for over 20 PPR points per week with some upside given their roles. It helps that Cam Newton's passing technique has improved. Both are solid standalone options, but if a Fantasy manager spent his first five picks on three running backs, a tight end and a receiver, taking this duo as your Nos. 2 and 3 receivers in Rounds 6 and 7 probably won't hurt your squad too bad.
Arizona Cardinals
Wideouts: Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, KeeSean Johnson
ADP: Kirk 88th, Fitzgerald 118th, Johnson 150th+
2018 PPR FP/gm: Kirk 9.7, Fitzgerald 11.3, Johnson n/a
Nearly everyone in Fantasyland has hyped up Kyler Murray and this new Air Raid offense the Cardinals are installing. Why not get pieces of the receiving corps?! As things stand in early August, Kirk and Fitzgerald are on-field locks with Johnson leading the rest of the wideout group. You might fear an offense piloted by Kyler Murray, but he's got a great arm with terrific accuracy. Expect Johnson (if he keeps playing well) to man one outside spot with Kirk and Fitzgerald lining up all over the place (Fitzy in the slot more often than Kirk). In this version of the Cardinals offense, all three could find themselves with a chance at four-plus catches per game.
The first one I'd draft: Kirk. Let's face it, he's the youngest and fastest of the three, plus he's not a bad route-runner. A Round 7 choice to get the best receiver in an upstart offense isn't a bad price at all.
Draft more than one? Why not?! If this offense takes off then Fitzgerald figures to be a factor, and he can be had three rounds after Kirk. Collecting both make for low-risk, modest-upside options where one should be helpful in PPR lineups each week. Johnson you could take with your last pick if you wanted to but is better suited to be plucked off waivers.
Denver Broncos
Wideouts: Courtland Sutton, Emmanuel Sanders, DaeSean Hamilton
ADP: Sutton 109th, Sanders 126th, Hamilton 148th
2018 PPR FP/gm: Sutton 7.9, Sanders 16.0, Hamilton 4.5
Playing mostly in the slot last season, Sanders notched nearly 900 yards in 12 games and seemingly put himself back on the Fantasy map until he got hurt. Now there's debate not only about where he'll play, but how explosive he'll be. The good news is that he's seemingly made a full recovery, so there's a chance he can contribute. But Hamilton thrived in the slot last year and feels like the guy who will play there instead of Sanders, who has loads of experience lining up outside. Sutton will also play almost exclusively along the perimeter.
The first one I'd draft: Sutton. As top-100 picks go, Sutton has good value. But when he had the chance to step up last season after the Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas, he struggled. And when Sanders left the field, giving him a bounty of opportunities, he struggled. The pedigree suggests he's a breakout candidate, and Joe Flacco as his quarterback should afford many chances to connect downfield.
Draft more than one? The Broncos have three interesting receivers, but they also have an intriguing tight end in rookie Noah Fant. They also prefer to be a run-focused offense. Two of their three running backs can make an impact in the passing game. Even though you could snag Sutton and Sanders with two late-round picks, it's hard to see both contributing.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Wideouts: Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, D.J. Chark
ADP: Westbrook 101st, Conley and Chark 150th+
2018 PPR FP/gm: Westbrook 10.4, Conley 5.3, Chark 2.5
The first one I'd draft: Westbrook. A lot of people are overlooking Westbrook. You shouldn't. He's going to work as the Jaguars' slot receiver, which is a primo spot considering Foles has leaned on slot and middle-field targets for years, and new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has also been slot-friendly. He led the Jaguars in targets, catches, yards and receiving touchdowns in 2018 and can easily improve in 2019.
Draft more than one? Nope. Westbrook's the only one worth drafting for now.
New York Giants
Wideouts: Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate
ADP: Shepard 108th, Tate 124th
2018 PPR FP/gm: Shepard 10.8, Tate 11.7 (7.7 after being traded to Philly)
The first one I'd draft: Shepard. Due to Tate's four-game suspension, Shepard is the easy call here. I actually like Shepard as a top-shelf bench receiver in PPR. He should see a steady diet of targets and is capable of lining up all over the field. The broken thumb from the early camp days shouldn't be a factor by the time Week 1 rolls around (not that you'd start him Week 1).
Draft both? Ewww. The Giants are already one of the league's lesser passing units with tight end Evan Engram expected to lead the team in targets. Shepard is serviceable; Tate is tough to believe in after fading so fast with the Eagles. In Detroit he was an extension of the run game in a pass-minded offense; now he's on a run-focused offense. Missing a month of action could set him back, too.
Buffalo Bills
Wideouts: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Zay Jones, Robert Foster
ADP: Brown 150th+ and rising, Beasley 150th+, Jones 150th+, Foster 150th+ and fading
2018 PPR FP/gm: Brown 8.4, Beasley 8.9, Jones 9.9, Foster 7.4
The first one I'd draft: Brown. It's been reported that Brown is blowing away the competition in Buffalo, not only as a deep-ball connection with cannon-armed quarterback Josh Allen but also as a short-range catch-and-run outlet. He's never had more than 102 targets in a season, so there's a chance for him to have a really good year if he can stay on the field. Beasley is destined for the slot, Jones as the third receiver and Foster for the bench.
Draft more than one? We'd need to see one of Beasley, Jones or Foster make a furious improvement as well as believe in Allen as a consistent, accurate passer before recommending two Bills on one Fantasy team.
Baltimore Ravens
Wideouts: Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead
ADP: Brown 133rd, Boykin 150th+ and rising, Snead 150th+
2018 PPR FP/gm: Snead 7.9, Brown and Boykin n/a
The first one I'd draft: Brown. We are seeing some incredible stories on Boykin assimilating into the Ravens offense. We're also learning that Lamar Jackson's accuracy has improved. But Brown's speed is unbeatable; so as long as he's playing, he's got the chance to devastate defenses with a deep ball regardless of opponent. Boykin has almost equal appeal on Draft Day but Brown's upside is greater, which is why I'd take him first. Snead will begin the year as the Ravens' slot receiver.
Draft more than one? If you have the bench space and lots of patience, you could conceivably draft both Brown and Boykin. That makes a lot of sense in Best Ball drafts but not quite in regular seasonal leagues where you only have five or six bench spots.
Miami Dolphins
Wideouts: Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, DeVante Parker
ADP: Stills 150th, Wilson 150th+, Parker 150th+
2018 PPR FP/gm: Stills 8.5, Wilson 13.4, Parker 5.3
The first one I'd draft: Wilson in PPR, Stills in non-PPR. No one's rushing out to draft any Dolphins receivers, but if ex-Patriots assistant Chad O'Shea brings a semblance of his New England background to the Dolphins playbook, Wilson should be a poor man's Julian Edelman. Stills, meanwhile, is certain to get some deep targets from gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick and would make for a boom-or-bust player.
Draft more than one? Look, you're barely considering drafting one Dolphins receiver. Let's not think about drafting two.
Washington Redskins
Wideouts: Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn, Josh Doctson, Kelvin Harmon, Paul Richardson
ADP: Everyone is barely on the ADP radar
2018 PPR FP/gm: Doctson 7.0, Richardson 8.0, Quinn 7.0, McLaurin and Harmon n/a
The first one I'd draft: None. Quinn seems settled into the slot role and might provide around 10 PPR points per week. McLaurin does have a chance to become a late-round flier with some strong preseason highlights after picking up a bunch of glowing camp reports. Harmon might take a while to see regular playing time. Fantasy managers don't feel so hot about trusting Doctson or Richardson.
Draft more than one? LOL.
Who's No. 2?
Green Bay Packers
Wideouts: Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
ADP: Adams 9th, Allison 116th, Valdes-Scantling 140th
2018 PPR FP/gm: Adams 21.6, Allison 12.0, Valdes-Scantling 6.4
Adams may have had the season he did because Allison got hurt and the rest of the Packers receiving corps was so inexperienced that Aaron Rodgers went full YOLO and peppered him with targets. Side note: It worked. But it's been revealed through training camp that Rodgers is starting to trust Valdes-Scantling on the outside while Allison gets comfy with his big slot receiver role. You only have to go back to 2016 and 2014 to see Rodgers is more than capable of turning two wideouts into top-12 Fantasy superstars.
The first one I'd draft after Adams: Allison. Put it this way: Allison is safer. Slot receivers rarely have massive volume under Rodgers, but at least Allison should have a locked-in role with a good dose of targets each week. Valdes-Scantling might go missing for weeks at a time. Allison's a decent get in Round 9, while MVS is equally interesting in Round 10, and they might flip-flop draft spots by the time the preseason ends.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wideouts: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, James Washington, Diontae Johnson
ADP: Smith-Schuster 16th, Moncrief 134th, Washington 134th, Johnson 150th+
2018 PPR FP/gm: Smith-Schuster 18.1, Moncrief 7.8, Washington 2.9, Johnson n/a
Smith-Schuster will take over as the top target in Pittsburgh. Who's next? Moncrief seems to have the upper hand on that camp battle, which makes some sense since he's the veteran of the group and has proven to be a capable receiver with good quarterbacks before. Washington slimmed down and had some good moments in training camp while the rookie Johnson has flashed as well. It helps that Washington and Johnson are faster than Moncrief.
The first one I'd draft after JuJu: Moncrief. The key in the reporting from Pittsburgh is that Ben Roethlisberger is developing trust in Moncrief. That means a lot. Expect to see him begin the year as the Steelers' No. 2 receiver while Washington works his way into three-receiver sets. But the reality is that Moncrief isn't anywhere close to as good as Antonio Brown was. It's not a mistake to take him in Round 10 or so, but it'll be a miracle if he tops 800 yards and seven touchdowns.
Draft more than one? I'd steer clear. Washington and Johnson have potential but as long as their path to regular playing time is blocked, they're just not going to be useful parts of a Fantasy team. If things change in the preseason, be ready to move on them.
Houston Texans
Wideouts: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee
ADP: Hopkins 7th, Fuller 85th, Coutee 134th
2018 PPR FP/gm: Hopkins 20.5, Fuller 14.7, Coutee 10.0
This isn't about who's No. 1; you already know it's Hopkins. And you are probably ready to buy into Fuller as second-best. That's fine -- in the 17 games he's played since 2017 he's delivered 100 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of them. When he's healthy, he's a difference-maker with top-12 weekly upside. But Coutee deserves some attention too as a slot-destined speedster who's long past the hamstring issues and rookie inexperience that slowed him down. He's received high praise from his coach and his quarterback for running smoothly and flashing his explosive play. He's a candidate for 60 catches if he can stay healthy.
The first one I'd draft after Hopkins: Fuller. His brittle body makes him a risky seventh-round choice, but you'll confidently start him for however long he's healthy. Coutee is among my favorite PPR bench receivers, worthy of being taken before 100th overall in PPR formats and more like 110th overall in non-PPR.
Draft more than one? I really dig the idea of drafting Fuller and Coutee as a pair. You'll use Fuller when he's speeding downfield and pivot to Coutee when Fuller isn't available. Coutee's target share would obviously ramp up in those contests.

















