2020 Fantasy QB Breakouts: Big things coming from Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and more
Which quarterbacks are ready to take the next step? The Fantasy Football Today team gives you their top picks.
By
Chris Towers
•
1 min read
Who qualifies as a breakout pick for Fantasy is always an interesting question. Does it have to be a player who has never played at a star level before — your Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, or Josh Allen types? Or can the likes of Deshaun Watson and Jared Goff fit in? Some folks will tell you the latter won't qualify — "They've already broken out," they'll shout!
Don't listen to them. As with anything else in Fantasy Football, it's all about finding value, and if you believe there's value in Deshaun Watson and Jared Goff finding a new level, go ahead and call them breakouts.
As part of our QB preview week, we've already taken a look at the state of the position, a comprehensive breakdown of the position, top late-round targets, and updated tiers and strategies, and now we're looking for sleepers, breakouts, and busts. The Fantasy Football Today team has their breakout quarterbacks here to help you find those values, and both types are featured — the young guys ready to make the jump to superstardom and the established stars with the potential to go even higher.
But before we get to that, here are a few breakout options I like who didn't get any love from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, or Ben Gretch:
- Matthew Stafford: Alright, so I'm not necessarily saying this will be Stafford's best season ever — he did have that 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown season back in 2011. But I think it's going to be the best we've seen from him since. A change in the offensive personnel around him has led to a more efficient and dangerous approach, and he should be able to sustain that with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and breakout tight end candidate T.J. Hockenson leading the way.
- Teddy Bridgewater: Bridgewater could just as easily qualify as a sleeper, but I'm expecting a big step forward from him this season. He's always been an effective passer, but not one with much upside for Fantasy. However, with a group of weapons that can make big plays happened off short and intermediate passes and a few dynamic deep threats, Bridgewater is perfectly set up for a career year — and a defense that probably won't slow anyone down only helps.
Jamey Eisenberg's QB Breakouts
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I had Allen as a breakout candidate before the Bills added Stefon Diggs this offseason, so that addition only enhances his value. Allen will hopefully continue to improve as a passer, but we don't want him to stop running. He was third among quarterbacks in 2019 behind Jackson and Kyler Murray (another breakout candidate this year) with 510 rushing yards, and he led all quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns. He needs better passing stats with just 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season, but adding Diggs to a receiving corps of John Brown and Cole Beasley should obviously help. I also expect more from Allen in his third year as he continues to develop, and hopefully he'll attempt more than 461 passes in 2020. Allen has top-five potential, and he's worth drafting with a mid-round pick in all leagues.
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When Jones was on last year, he was really on, scoring at least 35 Fantasy points in four of 12 starts. But he also had six games with 14 Fantasy points or less, and that ratio has to change if he's going to become a starting option in all leagues. There are two reasons to like Jones this year. The first is the weapons around him with Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. That's a stellar group with plenty of upside. The other reason to like Jones is his rushing ability, which might have gone unnoticed last year. He was on pace for 372 rushing yards over 16 games, which would have been good for fifth among quarterbacks in 2019. If he can increase that total and become a more consistent producer -- and cut down on the turnovers (23) -- we could be looking at a steal in Round 10 or later.
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Dave Richard's QB Breakouts
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After throwing the 10th-most red-zone passes (and finishing with only 13 touchdowns), Murray gets DeAndre Hopkins to join his wide receiving corps. That should perk up his touchdown production, and he's already proven to be adept at deep passing and running the ball. He should only get better in his second season.
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If Jones can just hang on to the dang football, he should be fantastic for Fantasy even though he has a brutally tough schedule. The change to Jason Garrett's offense should prove to be helpful, but really it's his mobility combined with a deep receiving corps that should help Jones' numbers pop. He's the best late-round breakout Fantasy quarterback candidate this year.
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Heath Cummings's QB Breakouts
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Allen was actually better than Murray on a per-game basis last year, despite another poor year as a passer. The positive is that he improved in his second year, and another small step could vault him into the top five because of what he does with his legs. If his efficiency improves as much in 2020 as it did in 2019, we should expect an additional 400 passing yards and seven more passing touchdowns assuming the Bills loosen the reins a little more. The addition of Stefon Diggs should certainly help in that pursuit.
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So this may not make much sense with Watson losing DeAndre Hopkins, but the fourth-year quarterback should be expected to set career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2020. The loss of Hopkins hurts, but the addition of Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and David Johnson gives Watson one of the deepest (and most diverse) set of weapons in the league. The Texans' porous defense should make sure Watson throws plenty, and he's averaged more than 80 Fantasy points per 16 games with his legs. It should not surprise anyone if Watson is one of the top two Fantasy quarterbacks at the end of the season.
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Ben Gretch's QB Breakouts
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Murray threw zero touchdowns in five of his first eight career games, which were also the first eight career games for head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They got things squared away in the second half of 2019, and Murray's touchdown rate more than doubled, suggesting his 20 passing touchdowns are something of a floor for 2020. DeAndre Hopkins helps, and Murray's passing numbers should improve in Year 2, but his big rushing value already made him a top-10 quarterback in most formats last year.
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The Rams should throw plenty, and Goff has multiple high-ranked pass-catchers but a low ADP himself. That's mostly explained by his 3.5% touchdown rate in 2019, but he eclipsed 5.5% in each of his first two seasons under Sean McVay. Goff did get things turned around late last year during Tyler Higbee's strong run, throwing for at least 280 yards and two scores in each of the final five games. Expect the touchdowns to bounce back and Goff to provide solid late-round value with upside.
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