Week 13 NFL DFS: Tournament strategies and player picks for FanDuel, DraftKings
Ben Gretch looks at the Week 13 DFS slate and gives his tournament strategies and top player picks by position.
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Ben Gretch
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1 min read
The Thanksgiving slate was pretty wild, and whether you were on the contrarian plays or had a rough day, Sunday looms with another opportunity. Let's start this week's article by discussing the key features of the Week 13 slate.
Week 13 tournament strategy session
One thing that often happens at this point in the season is the top plays become more clear, and while their salary rises to reflect that, we also know they have floor-to-ceiling ranges that are far superior to other options. That does create opportunities for leverage — something we've talked a lot about in this column this year — but it also makes the hunt for salary saving options a weekly endeavor.
A big leverage point on the Sunday slate is the mid-level running backs. Jonathan Williams and Miles Sanders stand out, while guys like Ronald Jones and Phillip Lindsay make for reasonable pivots.
Then you have the Chiefs, who should be able to put up points on the Raiders. With Damien Williams looking unlikely to be ready by Sunday, LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams appear poised to split the majority of the work. When Damien missed time earlier this season, Darrel seemed to fill his role, handling a strong share of the routes and mixing in at the goal line. He'll be another intriguing pivot.
Getting the running backs in this range right should allow for some lineup flexibility to get up to some combination of Christian McCaffrey at another RB spot, a top quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce at tight end or a high-end wide receiver.
To further help facilitate jamming in those top plays, we'll also need to go bargain hunting, likely at a wide receiver spot. The Bengals get Andy Dalton back, and Auden Tate and Alex Erickson are two cheap options who should run plenty of routes in a passing game that should be improved. Dalton averaged 25.5 completions in eight starts earlier this season; Ryan Finley averaged 13.7 in his three.
Other reasonable cheap wide receivers include Demaryius Thomas and Allen Lazard, who has seemingly displaced Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the Packers.
Let's get into the picks.
Week 13 DFS Picks
Top players
Position
Quarterbacks
We've talked about Murray often in this column, highlighting his dual-threat ability and the upside inherent in it. He still probably hasn't shown his full ceiling in a game yet, but he's rushed for at least 30 yards and thrown for multiple scores in three straight after throwing for no touchdowns in five of his first eight career games. Things are trending up toward the end of Murray's rookie season, as the Cardinals have adjusted their personnel usage toward groupings that feature tight ends, something that has been a catalyst for their success.
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Andy Dalton takes over the Cincinnati offense and offers us an easy salary-saver at quarterback. The matchup with the Jets is great, and Dalton is so cheap that we don't need a monster game for him to make sense as a lineup option. But given he's sure to have a chip on his shoulder, there's probably potential for him to pad stats to post a sort of statement game if things are going in the Bengals' favor.
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While Murray is a great mid-priced option and Dalton offers salary relief, the two names at the top of the pricing charts are still very much in play. I'm highlighting Mahomes here because I expect him to go a little under-owned, even with Lamar Jackson facing off with the 49ers' defense. I'll have lineups with both, but Mahomes hasn't shown us his upside in a few weeks, and I still fully believe he has the potential to break the slate any given week, which means getting him at even slightly depressed ownership in a great matchup is something to note.
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Running Backs
I've mentioned McCaffrey in almost every column, but I've refrained from writing him in as a feature most weeks. But it's hard to refrain here. The Panthers have lost three straight, and they are big home favorites in a must-win game. McCaffrey's receiving role is so valuable that unlike most backs, wins can almost be a bad thing, because he simply passes off expected touches in the passing game to runs. But there's another important trend with McCaffrey lately, and it's that he's been featured in the green zone as much as any back in the league. Early last year the book on him was he couldn't score touchdowns, and then those started to come, but then this year the usage in close has been elite, including a whopping six green-zone touches last week. His upside in all scripts is massive, and he's only a fade in contrarian lineup builds.
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I mentioned the Chiefs in the intro, and if Damien Williams sits, there is a lot of value here. In a projected plus script, we should see plenty of room for production, and the backfield touches would likely be split between just two guys: LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams. When Damien missed time earlier this year, Darrel seemed to handle his role, running a lot of routes. Darrel's also had a solid green zone role whenever he's been involved in the game plan. Add in that there's plenty of running back value in clearer situations in the same pricing range as these guys, which should keep their ownership down a bit, and there's plenty of reason to target one of McCoy or Darrel Williams.
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Jay Ajayi's debut didn't really impact Sanders, who played 85% of the Eagles' backfield snaps for the second straight game in Week 12. Ajayi did take six carries, but he played just eight snaps. There's room for that to grow against Ajayi's former team, but it seems clear Sanders will be the lead back, as Jordan Howard had still not been cleared for contact as of Friday. That makes Sanders a pretty sweet value in a great spot against Miami, where the Eagles' sputtering offense has plenty of get-right potential.
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This pick is more about the Packers needing to get right than anything in the recent numbers. Jamaal Williams has been playing about 50% of the snaps the past two weeks and is dominating the RB targets, but the Packers have also looked incompetent offensively in two of their past three games. I'm not sure that has as much to do with a lack of Jones touches as most seem to believe — running back value is overrated, and it's likely more a correlation than a causation thing here — but what is clear is that Jones is the more dynamic back and you could certainly see the Packers buy in that more of him will help. That's the hope, at least, in a week where Jones will likely carry limited ownership and he makes for a solid pivot play off Davante Adams, who should be popular at wide receiver.
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Wide Receivers
If there's one thing we've learned with the upside in the Bucs' passing game, it's that it swings back and forth and it makes a lot of sense to target the cheaper option who didn't go off the week before. Evans figures to draw plenty of A.J. Bouye, but the Jags also have a strong slot corner in D.J. Hayden, who will cover Godwin frequently and has actually graded out better than Bouye this year at PFF. Both of these guys are good enough to beat difficult matchups, and I'm not particularly concerned given we know there will be plenty of passing volume overall.
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Simply put: D.J. Moore is still underpriced. Moore has blossomed into a full-fledged star, and he led the NFL with 54 targets in five games from the Panthers' Week 7 bye through Week 12 (though of course several other players had byes in that stretch). Last week, Moore proved an ability to haul in a deep target for a long score, plus score in the red zone with a short touchdown reception. He also showed off his trademark yards-after-catch ability, creating a second 50-yard catch from a short throw. An elite prospect who was highly productive in college, Moore's ascension shouldn't be a surprise, but his DFS pricing simply hasn't caught up to how good he is.
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Tyreek Hill's hamstring injury in Week 11 didn't look all that serious, and he had the Week 12 bye to rest up and is practicing in full ahead of Week 13. If I'm high on Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this week, you can bet I'm going to be rostering Hill at his egregious $8,300 price tag on FanDuel, a full $600 cheaper than DraftKings despite FanDuel's higher salary cap.
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I mentioned several cheaper wide receiver options in the intro, but Tate is my favorite. After a scary-looking injury in Week 11, Tate returned to a full snap share in Week 12, despite his limited productivity. But the return of Andy Dalton should help that, as Tate has averaged 7.9 targets in games Dalton played in this season versus just five in Ryan Finley starts. If Tate can get eight targets, he should easily pay off his depressed price tag.
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Tight Ends
Let's add one more Chief to the list. Sammy Watkins missed practice this week with a sickness, and while he very well could play, a ceiling Mahomes game this weekend feels more likely to go through Hill and Kelce. Kelce's price is obviously prohibitive in some situations, but if you can find the salary to get up for him, his upside is just vastly superior to any of the other options at the position.
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With Eric Ebron out, Jack Doyle figures to see an expanded receiving role. Depth TE Mo Alie-Cox has not practiced this week with a thumb issue, while T.Y. Hilton has been ruled out for Week 13. While Parris Campbell could be back, this is a Colts team that still lacks reliable weapons in the passing game. Ebron hasn't missed a game since coming over to the Colts in the 2018 offseason so it's not entirely clear whether the Colts might utilize a depth TE in his place, but all signs are pointing to potential double-digit target upside for Doyle. He is an especially good play on full-PPR site DraftKings given a discounted salary there and Doyle's high-reception profile.
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