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| His work done, Mike Trout is ready to be judged by history. (US Presswire) |
To the surprise of precisely no one, Angels center fielder Mike Trout has been named AL Rookie of the Year. The ensuing question is not whether he deserved the honor -- only on Opposite Day would he not deserve to be the unanimous choice. Rather, the question is this: In light of Trout's accomplishments, is his the greatest rookie season ever?
Let us explore this very question. In the service of doing so, I'm going to compile a list, which will be authoritative only in its lack of authority.
I'll sort this list of great rookie seasons by FanGraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement (or WAR -- here's a good primer that you almost certainly won't read), which has been the source of much hand-wringing lately. I'm not a WAR evangelist, but it does provide a snapshot of overall value (in that it accounts for hitting, defense, and baserunning and makes all the necessary contextual adjustments) and a starting point for discussions. Its measurements of single-season defensive contributions are dubious at best, but, again, I'm leaning on it as more of a crude indicator rather than something that provides surgical precision.
The other metric you'll see below that may not be familiar is OPS+. OPS+ is simply the more recognizable OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) adjusted to reflect park and league conditions. The higher the figure, the better the OPS+ from the hitter's standpoint. Each point more than 100 constitutes one percentage point better than the league average. For example, an OPS+ of 115 would be a park-adjusted OPS that's 15 percent superior to the league-average OPS (conversely, an OPS+ of 85 would be a park-adjusted OPS that's 15 percent inferior to the league-average OPS). Baseball-Reference.com, the source of these numbers, has a nifty OPS+ primer that you also probably won't read!
I'm also going to take into consideration playing time (plate appearances), defensive "degree of difficulty" (position) and list the player's age. In terms of raw value -- i.e., how productive the player was in the isolated context of that season -- age doesn't matter. But if we're looking at how impressive a given rookie campaign is, then age is an essential consideration. After all, thriving at the highest level as, say, a 20-year-old is substantially more impressive than doing so as a 24-year-old.
With all that out of the way, here are the the top 10 seasons by rookie position players, according to WAR …
| Player, team | Year | WAR | Age | Plate App. | OPS+ | SB/CS | Position |
| Mike Trout, Angels | 2012 | 10.0 | 20 | 639 | 171 | 49/5 | CF |
| Joe Jackson, Naps | 1911 | 9.7 | 23 | 641 | 193 | 41/? | OF |
| Dick Allen, Phillies | 1964 | 8.7 | 22 | 708 | 162 | 3/4 | 3B |
| Ted Williams, Red Sox | 1939 | 7.9 | 20 | 677 | 160 | 2/1 | RF |
| Albert Pujols, Cardinals | 2001 | 7.7 | 21 | 676 | 157 | 1/3 | 3B |
| Al Rosen, Indians | 1950 | 7.6 | 26 | 668 | 145 | 5/7 | 3B |
| Mike Piazza, Dodgers | 1993 | 7.6 | 24 | 602 | 153 | 3/4 | C |
| Tony Oliva, Twins | 1964 | 7.5 | 25 | 718 | 150 | 12/6 | RF |
| Fred Lynn, Red Sox | 1975 | 7.3 | 23 | 605 | 162 | 10/5 | CF |
| Tommie Agee, White Sox | 1966 | 7.2 | 23 | 689 | 127 | 44/18 | CF |
Conspicuous in his absence is, of course, Ichiro Suzuki, who in 2001 claimed not only AL Rookie of the Year plaudits but also won the AL MVP Award. While his rookie campaign remains highly impressive, it doesn't quite stack up to the best of the best over a span of more than a century. In simplified terms, Ichiro, playing in what was very much an offensive era, didn't put up the power numbers by corner-defender standards necessary to place him among the very best. Many other great rookie seasons -- Frank Robinson, Carlton Fisk, Ryan Braun, Nomar Garciaparra, Vada Pinson, to name but a sampling -- also miss out despite their varying degrees of excellence. Rarified air is what this is.
As for those who did pass muster, it's an impressive ledger. In addition to Trout, you've got one inner-circle Hall of Famer in Williams, one should-be Hall of Famer in Allen, one would-have-been a Hall of Famer if not for his judged misdeeds (Shoeless Joe), two future Hall of Famers in Pujols and Piazza, two near-Hall of Famers in Oliva and Lynn and two darn good ballplayers in Rosen and Agee.
For me, though, it comes down to Trout and Jackson, as WAR suggests. Trout and Jackson have, respectively, the second-highest and highest OPS+ of any of the top 10, and Trout of course provided excellent defense at an up-the-middle position and was perhaps the best baserunner in the league. Jackson, meanwhile, holds a healthy 22-point advantage in OPS+ over Trout and a 31 point edge over the next guys in line (more miraculous than Jackson's .408 batting average that season is the fact that he didn't win the batting title -- Ty Cobb hit .420). That's especially significant since hitting is the element of the game that we can measure with the most accuracy.
Jackson's listed position is the somewhat indistinct "outfield," but he spent the vast majority of his time in left. According to contemporary accounts, Jackson was a standout fielder. For his career, he outpaced the league-average fielding percentage at his position, and his throwing arm was widely praised. While there's a substantial difference in being a good glove man in left and being a good glove man in center, Jackson was almost certainly an asset in the field.
As for base running, we don't have Jackson's caught-stealing totals for 1911, but the later parts of his career suggest he was no stranger to running into outs on the bases (over the five seasons for which we have the data, he was caught stealing a total of 81 times). Still, the 202 career thefts in tandem with his high triples totals (thrice he led the AL in three-baggers) suggest Jackson was a plus on the paths.
So, broadly speaking, what do we have? We have a substantial edge for Jackson at the plate, and we have, as best we can divine, modest edges for Trout in the field and on the bases. All facets considered and making some allowances for the statistical "fog" layered upon Jackson's numbers, I'd call Shoeless Joe's 1911 the greatest rookie season of all time, with Trout's 2012 running a close second.
Unless WAR accurately reflects the extent to which Trout beat all comers in terms of defense and baserunning, in which case I'd go with Trout. If we make age a consideration, then I'd also go with Trout.
In other words, I'm comfortable saying that Shoeless Joe Jackson and Mike Trout had the greatest rookie seasons in history, but there's not enough clarity in the statistical record to go beyond that.
And what of the rookie pitchers? As the MVP balloting correctly intuits almost all of the time, a great position player is, as a general rule, more valuable than a great starting pitcher. So it is with rookies. Pete Alexander in 1911, Mark Fidrych in 1976, Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, Dwight Gooden in 1984: That's but a taste of the contenders. In each case, though, none was such that they can compare, in terms of value bestowed, to the best rookie position players of all-time.
The greatest of these, then, is Shoeless Trout.
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