Thanks to a dramatic walk-off home run in extras on Sunday, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the National League West champions.
If we went back to March and said that was going to happen, we probably wouldn't get much pushback. After all, the very-talented Dodgers had the top payroll in baseball -- by a landslide -- and were already the three-time defending NL West champs.
And yet, given the journey that the Dodgers had in 2016, they are actually an unlikely division winner. In fact, barring a miracle finish in the AL East, NL East or AL Central, the Dodgers are the most unlikely division champion in 2016, given the proper context.
Yes, I know it sounds ridiculous to suggest the Dodgers might have been some sort of underdog, but let's consider the circumstances.
1. The injuries
Baseball is a regional sport. That is, the overwhelming majority of fans only watch their favorite team. There's nothing wrong with this, of course, but it does lend itself to selection bias. That is, "I've never seen a team have so many injuries!" even when it's not really a drastic injury season for a particular team.
With this Dodgers team, though, it's been the most drastic injury season of all-time.
On Sept. 9, the Dodgers placed pitcher Carlos Frias on the disabled list. He was the 28th Dodgers player of the season to hit the DL. Twenty-eight! Three more than a normal, active roster. This broke the MLB record of 27 players to hit the DL by a team, and that record was held by the 2012 Red Sox, who finished in last place with 93 losses.
Ignoring pitchers, the Dodgers have used 115 total batting orders, and their most common order has only been used seven times. Ten different players have started a game in left field, nine in right. Six players have started at second base, third base and center field, respectively. They have used 15 different starting pitchers. Totals like that are usually reserved for teams in last place.
Yet these Dodgers have won the NL West.
Unlikely? Yes.
2. THE injury
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the world. He was having the best year of his career, too, through June 26. He was 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 145 strikeouts against nine walks in 121 innings. That's an average of roughly 7 2/3 innings per start. Amazing.
The Dodgers were 14-2 in his starts (.875 winning percentage) and 27-34 (.443) without him. So they were playing like a 71-91 team when Kershaw didn't get the ball. Thus, if you at the time declared that Kershaw wouldn't again take the ball until Sept. 9, pretty much everyone would have buried the Dodgers.
Through Kershaw's back injury, the Dodgers actually went 38-24 from June 27 through Sept. 8. They turned everything around without him.
Unlikely? Check.
3. The deficit
Through that June 26 date mentioned above (Kershaw injury), the Dodgers trailed the Giants by eight games in the NL West. That was through 77 games, so in nearly half the season, they had already dug themselves an eight-game hole.
It wasn't much better by the All-Star break, when they trailed the Giants by 6 1/2 games.
Now, the Giants' second-half collapse has helped matters, but the Dodgers also took this thing for themselves. Since the break, the Dodgers have gone 39-26. That's the third-best record in baseball since the break, trailing only the Cubs and Red Sox.
4. The Yasiel Puig drama
During the offseason, we heard that Kershaw wanted Puig traded (even if Kershaw later denied that). Then there was some drama leading up to the trade deadline. Puig was hitting just .254/.315/.375 through July 29. He ended up being sent to the minors. Then there was drama about a video he posted to social media.
Puig was later claimed on waivers but no deal was worked out and he returned to the team.
In the end, most of this was merely a headache, but it's a headache a team with myriad injury woes had to work through nonetheless.
Let's keep in mind that manager Dave Roberts is in his first season as a manager at the professional level. He never even managed a minor-league team (his one game as interim skipper with the Padres hardly counts for much). He has also twice removed pitchers who had a no-hitter going. It has to be tough to navigate the clubhouse and big-city media with decisions like that, but the Dodgers have come through as the division champs.
To reiterate, this isn't an upset through the lens of what we knew heading into the season. It is an upset, however, given what actually transpired through much of the season.
