luka-reaves-usatsi.png
Imagn Images

Yesterday, we handed out quarter-season awards for the 2025-26 NBA season. That process is more of a starting gun for the races than a definitive prediction for who will win. At the risk of tarnishing my own credibility, I went 2-for-6 in last year's version of the exercise.

The All-Star and All-NBA picks are a bit different. All-Star voting will begin in a few weeks. Assuming health, we can be reasonably confident in a pretty sizable chunk of the All-NBA teams. Nikola Jokić has a long way to go to win MVP, but a meteor would have to hit Denver to keep him off of anyone's All-NBA ballots. We still have plenty of time left in the season, but All-Star and All-NBA, just by virtue of having more slots, are a bit easier to predict.

So below, I will pick my All-Star and All-NBA Teams to this point in the season. As a reminder, we've had a few format changes to both in the past few years. The All-Star Game, for instance, will be divided between Americans and international players. The American team gets at least 16 players, and the international team gets at least eight. However, that isn't how All-Star teams will be chosen. The rosters will be picked by conference, as they always have, with the commissioner adding choices to whichever side needs them to reach those numbers. There are no longer any positional requirements for rosters. If we want 12 centers, we can pick 12 centers.

Positional requirements have also been eliminated from All-NBA voting. More importantly, the league has added a 65-game minimum for All-NBA eligibility. Given how early it is in the season, though, we'll ignore it for the time being. So long as a player has not missed 18 games, he is eligible for selection. However, just because someone is eligible does not mean that missed time can't be held against them. With all of this in mind, let's make some picks

All-NBA First Team

This is not coincidentally my to-date MVP ballot, listed in order. You can find my rationale for the order in that story, for All-NBA purposes, we're splitting these five players into three tiers.

Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander lead the pack. They're absolute no-brainers. If the season ended today, Jokić would set new NBA records for BPM and PER. Gilgeous-Alexander would set new records for EPM and Win Shares per 48 minutes. Looking for more conventional stats? Jokić is leading the league in rebounds and assists, at least among qualified players. Gilgeous-Alexander is flirting with one point per minute, which only Wilt Chamberlain and Joel Embiid have ever done. They'd have to lose a limb between now and the end of the season to miss out on the First Team.

Dončić is just below them, but a lock all the same. He's on track to join the league's very exclusive list of 35-point per game scorers. Only Chamberlain, Michael Jordan, Rick Barry, Kobe Bryant and James Harden have ever done it. Dončić leads all of them in assists. Our last lock is Antetokounmpo, who would be setting the PER record if Jokić didn't exist. All the same, he's scoring and assisting more per minute than he ever has while posting bonkers rim-protection numbers. He's our most vulnerable candidate yet for the 65-game rule, but that's April's problem. For now, he quite obviously has been one of the best four players in the league.

There are four plausible candidates for the fifth slot. Victor Wembanyama has probably been the best of them, but he's played the least and San Antonio has thrived without him. The real conversation is between three guards drafted in a two-year span: Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Maxey and Anthony Edwards.

Maxey's scoring volume has been downright historic, and so is the sheer magnitude of his workload. He's flirting with 40 minutes per game! He might break the tracking era's touches per game record. He has players on his team who can create shots, but everyone seems more comfortable with this arrangement. After years of playing second fiddle to bigger names, this is Maxey's team now, and he's thriving. He's also pretty vulnerable defensively. You would be too at his size and with his offensive responsibility, but it counts. Edwards is bigger and has a bit more offensive support, so he can expend some more energy defensively. But he's not the playmaker the other two candidates are. He's growing in that respect, but he has the most offensive support of the three, and being better than Maxey defensively isn't saying much.

Cunningham is the most balanced of the three. He's been the best defender, he leads the group in assists and rebounds, and he's probably playing with the least talented offensive roster of them all. So many Detroit possessions, especially late in games, rest on Cunningham getting into the paint. It'd be nice if he was making his 3s, but he's made up for that with great mid-range shooting. And if you're looking for a tiebreaker, a No. 1 seed should more than do it.

All-NBA Second Team

Maxey and Edwards missed out on the First-Team nod, but they're easy picks here. Edwards has seemingly found the ideal shot-diet balance. His 3-point volume isn't quite as high as it was last season, but he's traded those in for more free throws and more shots in the paint. He's not fully dismissing mid-range shots either. It was a reasonable regular-season approach last year as the Timberwolves incorporated Julius Randle, but he's also a superstar, and those are going to be the looks that are available to him late in games. He has to have a bit more comfort taking and making them, and he's developing it.

Wembanyama is another easy choice. He is averaging more blocks per game alone than any other player is averaging combined blocks and steals. No center is deflecting more passes per game. Oh yea, and he's averaging a cool 26 points, 13 rebounds and four assists per game. Like Edwards, shot-selection has been criticial. He's down from around nine 3s per game to five. That's close to the right number. He can make them, but he's also 7-5 (and that's being conservative). He needed to spend more time in the paint and he's done so. He's shooting 76% in the restricted area. At his volume, only Antetokounmpo is better.

If Stephen Curry is healthy and Currying, he's making an All-NBA Team. All of the old standbys remain true. He leads the league in 3s made per game. Golden State's offense dies when he goes to the bench as usual, but the reserves are at least making up for that defensively. There are signs of aging if you squint for them. He's below 40% from 3 for the second straight season. He's ceded playmaking duties almost entirely to Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. But the guy is 37, and it's not as though every sign of aging is working against him. He has his best free-throw rate in five years and is scoring more in the paint than he has in the last three. All in all, it's a mostly standard Curry season.

Two players fought for the final spot: Donovan Mitchell and Jaylen Brown. Their resumes are eerily similar. As of this writing, they are the NBA's fourth- and sixth-leading scorers. Mitchell has cranked his 3-point volume up to new, almost historic heights. Brown is having one of the most efficient mid-range shooting seasons in recent memory. Can you name the last player besides Kevin Durant to take at least six mid-range shots per game and make half of them? Dirk Nowitzki. Brown is on the borderline right now and reaches the 50% threshold by making two of his next three. He never quite developed a left hand, but he's mastered just about everything else the Celtics ever could have asked for. He's setting a new career-high in assists. He's getting to the line more than ever.

And he's doing this without Jayson Tatum. That's the difference-maker. Mitchell has also done an admirable job of soldiering through injuries, but his front office didn't gut his roster to avoid the second apron. Think about who Brown is missing compared to last season. It's not just Tatum. It's Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Kristaps Porziņģis and Luke Kornet. He has half of a roster. It hasn't mattered. The Celtics have a better record than the Cavaliers thus far. Most of that credit belongs to Brown.

All-NBA Third Team

It says quite a bit that Mitchell has been better statistically this season than he was last by just about any measure, yet he dips from the First Team to the Third. Cleveland's decline has played a part in that. Mitchell is frankly swimming in a different pool than he was last season. His numbers could be hand-waved pretty easily. He was ceding possessions to Darius Garland and Evan Mobley for one of the best offenses of all time. There was never any doubt that he could turn it on when needed. But he got to pick his spots last season, and he deserved credit for being willing to do so. The star who can comfortably fit onto a great team is just harder to find than the star shouldering the burden for the good one.

Jalen Brunson is striking that balance this season. He sacrificed some scoring volume last season to accommodate Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. He's clawed back some of that volume, but even if the numbers say he's the same player he was, the eye-test confirms he's grown in subtle ways. The Knicks have improved from 18th in the NBA in passes per game to 9th. They've completely inverted their shot-profile, jumping from 27th to sixth in 3-point attempts per game. There's so much more intention behind their movement. The cuts are faster. Mike Brown may have implemented all of this, but Brunson's buy-in makes it possible. If the face of the franchise jogs off of the ball and takes the wrong shots, that trickles down to everyone else. But Brunson has done his part, making the subtle changes he's needed to in order to empower his teammates in this bigger shift. He was already an All-NBA player, but that's going to be the ticket to the playoff success he and the Knicks are still seeking.

Austin Reaves is almost Brunson's statistical double. Reaves averages 0.4 more points and 0.3 more assists per game. He's shooting slightly better all over the court. And they've succeeded for largely similar reasons. It's all craft, not speed with their driving games. Where Reaves has stood out this season is his strength. Brunson grifts for his free throws. Reaves does too, but he's added so much bulk that he's much more freely initiating contact and finishing in traffic. Is he better than Brunson? Not quite yet. Brunson has more mouths to feed. He's more of a point guard, managing a game and his teammates with a bit more experience. But Reaves is moving in that direction. Nobody thought Brunson would be an All-NBA player. Reaves reached this level faster. It feels fitting that they've both shared Luka Dončić as a teammate.

We round out our All-NBA Teams with two players from arguably the second-best team in the league. The two support one another quite a bit. While Sengun's finishing near the rim has thankfully improved after last year's bizarre swoon, everything else inside the arc has been a bit underwhelming. Space is at a premium in Houston, so that isn't terribly surprising, but having another elite scorer next to him eases that burden meaningfully. On paper, this looks like any other Kevin Durant season. He's averaging 25 points and flirting with 50-40-90 shooting while playing strong defense. But his isolation efficiency is down to the 55th percentile league-wide. It hasn't gotten that low since 2009, his second season in the league.

They balance one another out. Durant has never been at his best running an offense, but Sengun's playmaking and the style his size and rebounding facilitates allows Durant to focus more on what he does best: making shots. And having Durant there to make shots opens up those tiny little nooks and crannies near the basket that weren't there a year ago, and Sengun has taken advantage. They're a great match, and together, they've made the Rockets a genuine championship contender.

Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starters

  • Cade Cunningham, Pistons
  • Tyrese Maxey, 76ers
  • Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
  • Jaylen Brown, Celtics
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

Reserves

We don't need to spend too much time with the starters since we covered them above. The only debate was Mitchell vs. Brunson for the final slot, and it wasn't an especially difficult one. Mitchell's just been a hair better across the board. More has been asked of him from the somewhat depleted Cavaliers, yet he's been more efficient across the board, and he's always been the superior defender. The advanced metrics prefer him. Brunson's only meaningful edge is in the standings, but it's far too early and the Cavaliers have dealt with far too many injuries to hold that against Mitchell.

Things get more interesting afterward. There are only two, no doubt about it locks. The first is Jalen Johnson. I'll be honest, I never figured him for a 50-40-90 candidate, but right now, it's only the free throws holding him back. That's how well-rounded he's been this season. We always knew he'd be a beast in transition, but he's never been this complete an offensive player. The guy who averaged 2.2 assists per game in college never struck me as an eventual point guard replacement for Trae Young, but he's generating more points off of assists (20.5) than he scored in any season prior to this one. His rim scoring is predictably awesome. The only thing he's really missing at this point is the ability to create and make his own jumpers inside of the arc late in games. He's developed everything else, so who knows, maybe we'll check back in a year and he'll have that too.

Towns is having a down shooting year, but he's made up for it was a reasonably strong defensive season by his standards. The defensive metrics strangely adore him. He has the same D-EPM as Dyson Daniels and Draymond Green, and while that's a stretch to say the least, his rim-protection numbers have improved markedly on last season. Does that mean he's improved substantially and there won't be issues in the postseason? No. But he's fitting in, at least. After last year's rumblings about him going off-scheme, that's an improvement. If only he'd stop fouling everything that moves.

The last four slots get a bit harder to figure out. I ultimately gave one of them to Franz Wagner, who would have been a lock before his high-ankle sprain set him up to lose potentially a month. For the second consecutive season, Wagner has kept the Magic afloat after a Paolo Banchero injury. This time, there's really no ambiguity. Wagner has been the best player on the team. He's outpaced Banchero in just about every respect, and now that he's making 3s again, there's a bit more reason for optimism in their long-term partnership. If the shooting and foul-drawing sustain, he's not going to cede this All-Star spot for a long, long time.

The first time Scottie Barnes made an All-Star team, it came during a suspicious jump in 3-point percentage that had already begun to slip. I'm a bit more optimistic about this year's shooting improvement. It's coming all over the floor. The long 2s might not be sustainable for anyone, but when you're having your best 3-point, mid-range and free throw shooting seasons of your career at the same time, well, that suggests you changed something significant. I can't deny someone shooting this well and defending at the level Barnes is. 

Three players fought for the last two spots. One of them was a Piston, Jalen Duren. Two of them were... Heatles? Heats? What do you call a singular member of the Heat? Anyway they were Bam Adebayo and Norm Powell. This creates a classic All-Star conundrum: can you take two players from one good team when you only have one from a great team? I tend to believe that you can. Teams can win for different reasons. The Pistons aren't necessarily the No. 1 seed on the strength of two players. It's a group effort. I'm open to the concept of taking both Powell and Adebayo. I just couldn't ultimately get there.

Powell is having a remarkable scoring season. He's been better than he was during last year's All-Star push with the Clippers, and with Tyler Herro injured, the importance of that scoring can't be understated. But isn't the point of Miami's revamped offense to create mismatches for everyone? The Heat have five 15-point scorers. Everyone is making their 3s. I just can't help but feel as though the system deserves just as much credit as the players for Miami's offensive success here. We can't just dismiss Adebayo either. Is Powell that much more important offensively now that Adebayo is consistently making 3s? Because Adebayo makes Miami's defensive success possible. He's the organizational culture-setter. I just can't shake the idea that as well as Powell has played, this team works because it has Bam Adebayo. There are more guards that can do what Powell can do than there are bigs that can do what Adebayo does.

Duren feels just as irreplaceable for Detroit. This team wins in the paint. Period. End of story. They outscore opponents by 13 points per game there. Duren is the backbone of that interior dominance, and he's a bigger part of that offense than most realize. Over 40% of his field goals are unassisted. That's better than Caris LeVert, a guard who came into the league as an individual creator. At the end of the day, Duren and Adebayo felt like good scorers and more complete players than Powell, a great scorer with less to offer elsewhere. But hey, if Wagner drops out due to missed games, Powell is certainly ready to fill in.

Western Conference All-Stars

Starters

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
  • Stephen Curry, Warriors
  • Luka Doncić, Lakers
  • Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
  • Nikola Jokić, Nuggets

Reserves

As usual, the West is a good bit deeper than the East. Only six of our All-NBA slots went to Eastern Conference players, which means we've already covered nine of our 12 Western Conference All-Stars. The only meaningful distinction between Wembanyama and the other Second-Team choices starting above him is games played. If he closes that gap between now and February, he'll deservingly make the jump into the opening five.

As for the three players left, they slot in pretty neatly. One was obvious. The next was relatively easy. The final slot was difficult. Chet Holmgren is a no-brainer and likely would've been my first All-NBA alternate. He's still only scratching the surface of what he can do as an individual creator, but man, has he gotten better at feasting on the looks his teammates give him. He's shooting over 80% on shots within three feet of the rim and over 60% between three and 10 feet of the rim. Give him the ball near the basket and good things are going to happen. Give someone on the other team the ball near the basket and he'll prevent them from scoring. Toss in his team's nearly spotless record and he's an easy pick.

Deni Avdija wasn't quite as simple, but he's got a leg up on the four candidates we'll cover fighting for the 12th slot. There are just no blemishes on his resume. An ultra-efficient 26 points per game while playing point guard in place of Jrue Holiday and doing his part defensively? The only thing working against him is his team's record, but the on-off numbers wipe that away quickly. Portland wins the Avdija minutes and gets slaughtered when he rests. His free throw rate has jumped almost 15 percentage points. He's having the best 3-point shooting season of his career by both volume and percentage. There's just no compelling reason to leave him off, even with more famous candidates behind him.

That leaves one slot left for Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, Lauri Markkanen and Jimmy Butler. Markkanen is the Western Conference equivalent of Powell. Incredible scorer. Not doing enough other stuff to qualify in the better conference. Butler, as always, is the metrics darling of the group. He's helped sustain the dominant defense Golden State built after the deadline a season ago as well, and I'm pretty sure he's the only Warrior I've seen attempt a free throw this season. But I can't get over how far the offense falls when Stephen Curry rests. Adding another star was supposed to make the bench offense at least somewhat viable. Even Butler couldn't fix it. 

As the one constant in Phoenix, it feels a bit unfair not to reward Devin Booker for the turnaround the Suns are enjoying this season. The tangible numbers just aren't there, at least in relation to Jamal Murray. They're scoring roughly similar amounts. One is doing so just above 50% effective shooting and the other is doing so just below 60% effective shooting. If this were Booker carrying the team in other ways, that might give him an edge, but the Suns have been better when he's been on the bench this season, and it's far easier to credit Dillon Brooks for the culture improvement considering his track record in Houston. So that leaves Murray to become the first All-Star teammate of Jokić's career.

For those of you keeping track, our demographics are a bit out of whack. We need 16 Americans, but even if we assume Towns, who has played for the Dominican National Team but grew up in New Jersey, counts as American, we're still one short. Now, in reality, this creates a potentially very messy situation. Why? Because we haven't accounted for the possibility that LeBron James gets voted in yet. If he does, everyone in the West gets knocked down a slot, meaning Murray, the 12th man, gets bumped without an international slot open to be filled. Now, the obvious counter to that is that Wagner may miss too much time to get chosen, opening an international slot for him to sneak into on the other side, but for our purposes, we're going to ignore all of that. Our list was one American short, so we're going to pick one American.

So that's how we'll reward the Suns for their feel-good start to the season. Booker may not have been an original Western Conference choice, but he'll sneak onto the team here. Now, does that mean he'll make it in reality? The James factor is complicating, but we also haven't accounted for injury-related absences. When the dust settles, there's a good chance he's ultimately selected. If he's not, well, it's probably because the Suns have regressed to their preseason expectations.