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The Dallas Cowboys (6-2) unexpectedly lost to the Denver Broncos last week and will now host the Atlanta Falcons (4-4) in an NFC matchup on Sunday. The Falcons have won three of their last four games and took a thriller against the New Orleans Saints their last time out, but few teams have been more dominant than the Cowboys at home in 2021. However, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has had success on the road lately and could challenge the NFC East's top team with a strong showing.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Dallas is favored by eight points in the latest Falcons vs. Cowboys odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 54.5. Before locking in your Cowboys vs. Falcons picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,600 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 10 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-88 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick 'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Falcons vs. Cowboys 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Cowboys: 

  • Cowboys vs. Falcons spread: Cowboys -8
  • Cowboys vs. Falcons over-under: 54.5 
  • Cowboys vs. Falcons money line: DAL -420, ATL +320 
  • ATL: Total has gone over in four of the Falcons' last five games 
  • DAL: Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread in their previous eight games

Why the Falcons can cover

The Falcons are 3-1 against the spread on the road, and only four teams have covered more away from home this year. The Falcons have been productive on offense despite wide receiver Calvin Ridley not playing for much of the season. Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 336 yards and two scores in three of his last four appearances, and two of those performances were on the road. Atlanta has momentum, but Dallas hasn't had a convincing win in a while.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was underwhelming after a one-week layoff, and his struggles against the Denver Broncos led to a 30-16 loss. Dallas won the previous week without him under center, but the Cowboys' last two wins have been by six points or fewer; they've only beaten teams with losing records by double-digits. If Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and others can move the chains and Dallas remains rusty on offense, the underdogs could avoid a double-digit defeat.

Why Cowboys can cover

The Cowboys were 3-0 against the spread and straight-up at home until their loss to the Broncos. Dallas won two of its previous three home games by at least 21 points, and quarterback Dak Prescott has the tools to dominate the NFL's sixth-worst scoring defense.

The Cowboys have top-10 passing and rushing attacks in 2021. They rank first in yards per game (434.3), and only two teams can beat their scoring average of 30.1 points. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tony Pollard are capable of breaking games open, and Atlanta might not have enough playmakers to keep up with such a dynamic group of skill players.

How to make Cowboys vs. Falcons picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 58 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's Falcons vs. Cowboys picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Cowboys? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Cowboys spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on its NFL picks, and find out.