Dolphins vs. Colts odds: 2019 NFL picks, Week 10 predictions from top computer model

The Indianapolis Colts will be without two key offensive weapons on Sunday when they host the struggling Miami Dolphins at 4:05 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts will start Brian Hoyer at quarterback in relief of Jacoby Brissett, who was ruled out with a sprained knee ligament sustained during last week's loss to the Steelers. Instead, Hoyer will trigger a Colts offense that puts up 356.9 yards and 22.8 points per game, and will do so without receiver T.Y. Hilton (calf) for the second straight game. The 1-7 Dolphins won their first game of the season last week against the Jets, but Miami enters Sunday without budding wide receiver Preston Williams (knee). Miami will also be without running back Mark Walton, who begins serving a four-game suspension. Indianapolis is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Colts vs. Dolphins odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Dolphins vs. Colts picks of your own, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 10 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 28-17 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 90-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Colts vs. Dolphins 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

Without Brissett, the Colts lose a player who has thrown for 1,649 yards and 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions. Hoyer makes his first start since 2017 with the 49ers, and the Colts called up Chad Kelly from the practice squad to serve as his backup. Hoyer is 16-21 as a starter. However, the Colts will be helped by the Dolphins being without Williams, who was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury earlier in the week. Williams had caught 32 passes for 428 yards and three touchdowns.

The Dolphins were able to grind out their first victory of the season last week, beating the Jets by a final score of 26-18. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had a big day against New York, finishing with 288 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Wide receiver DeVante Parker also had a strong showing against New York, hauling in four receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown. The 2015 first-rounder has now scored a touchdown in four of his last five outings. 

So who wins Dolphins vs. Colts? And which side of the spread cashes in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Colts spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.

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