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The Indiana Fever are back in action Thursday after capturing the franchise's first Commissioner's Cup title Tuesday despite missing superstar guard Caitlin Clark. Clark remains sidelined with a groin injury as the Fever take on the Las Vegas Aces, who have won three of their last four games and are coming into this contest off a win over the Phoenix Mercury. Both teams are .500 ahead of this encounter.

If you're interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props, check out Aces-Fever best bets from experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai before locking in any WNBA picks Thursday.

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).

Here are Barzilai and Wetzel's top Aces-Fever picks for Thursday, July 3:

  • Aces -4.5 (-110)
  • 2x3 "No" (Under 2 or more 3-pointers in the first three minutes, -192)

Aces -4.5

Since the inaugural Commissioner's Cup in 2021, the winners are 1-3 in their next game. That includes the Lynx losing outright as nine-point favorites to Dallas last year and the Liberty losing by double digits the year before.

This year, the Fever are in a tough spot to buck that trend, as they are again without Clark. After a hard-fought upset over Minnesota on the road, they travel back to Indiana to face an Aces team that has had some much-needed time off to turn things around and just traded for NaLyssa Smith to shore up their frontcourt. Look for a Fever letdownhere and ride Las Vegas out of the mini-break.

2x3 "No"

This bet hasn't failed us yet this season, so let's run it back. This bet has still, remarkably, only lost in one Fever game all season, and with Caitlin Clark once again out, that streak is in a position to continue.

Outside of Atlanta, these two defenses are the only ones allowing a 3-point rate below 30% to opponents, and Indiana in particular prefers to pound the ball inside early. If the books are giving this to us in the -100s, we have to take it.