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Two of the more intriguing stories of this year's College Football Playoff square off with a trip to the national championship game at stake with Miami and Ole Miss squaring off in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night. 

Both these teams entered the playoff amid strange circumstances as Ole Miss lost head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU shortly before CFP play began, while Miami got the nod over rival Notre Dame. The Rebels have kicked off Pete Golding's tenure as head coach with wins over Tulane and Georgia whole the Hurricanes took down Texas A&M and Ohio State, the reigning champs, to advance to the semifinal round. The winner of Thursday's matchup will face either Oregon or Indiana for the title. 

Kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Arizona is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. FanDuel Sportsbook odds have the Hurricanes as 3.5-point favorites, and the over/under for total points scored sits at 52.5. Miami is -166 on the money line (wager $166 to win $100) while Ole Miss is a +138 underdog (wager $100 to win $138). Here are our best bets for this CFP semifinal round, which we've made with the assistance of the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times. 

Ole Miss +3.5

The Rebels opened the CFP with their second resounding win over Tulane of the 2025 season, and they were able to knock off Georgia in a thrilling game last week thanks to some heroics from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Ole Miss is 9-5 against the spread this year and has covered in each of its last three games. The SportsLine model expects more of the same against Miami, with the Rebels covering the spread in 55% of simulations.

Over 52.5

The Rebels have a high-powered offense and the lowest total they've had for a game this year, per SportsLine consensus odds, is 51. Ole Miss is 7-7 to the Over, but the team's offense is clicking well of late with no drop off since Kiffin's departure. Chambliss has been a one-man wrecking crew orchestrating the Rebels' offense as a dual-threat option, and he was a major factor in the Over hitting against Georgia. Miami's defense has been stellar across the first two rounds, but on the other hand, Ole Miss' defense can be had and the Hurricanes have firepower on offense along with a veteran quarterback in Carson Beck. Over 52.5 hits in 57% of model simulations. 

Ole Miss money line

The SportsLine model has this as nearly a toss up. Its final score prediction is Miami 29, Ole Miss 28, but the Rebels win in 47% of simulations, returning plenty of value on the money line at plus money. Either the Hurricanes will play for their first national championship in over two decades, or the Rebels will advance and try and win their first title since the 1960s in a wild run after losing their head coach.