WNBA odds, picks, props today: Sunday's WNBA best bets include Liberty vs. Dream

Before locking in any WNBA picks, make sure to see today's WNBA best bets, including a spread pick for the Liberty-Dream game

By Max Meyer

Jun 29, 2025 at 8:00 am ET • 3 min read

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What better way to close out the week than with five WNBA games on Sunday? The only matchup between teams with double-digit wins is the 11-4 New York Liberty taking on the 10-6 Atlanta Dream at 3 p.m. ET. Other notable matchups including the Las Vegas Aces at the Phoenix Mercury at 6 p.m. ET on NBA TV and the Seattle Storm at the Golden State Valkyries at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Do you have an interest in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites? Here are today's WNBA best bets for Sunday, June 29. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.

Today's WNBA picks:

Dream +4.5 -110 (1 unit, DK)
Mercury -6 -108 (1 unit, FD)
Aces/Mercury Over 167 -110 (0.5 units, DK)

Dream +4.5

I have no clue why the market refuses to make a bigger adjustment to the Liberty without Jonquel Jones, but we will continue to fade them when the lines are showing value like this. This current New York team should absolutely not be laying more than a possession on the road against another top contender.

The Liberty are now 1-8 against the spread and 4-4 straight up when Jones is either out or has had to leave early due to injury. With a healthy Jones, New York is 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. One of those games with a healthy Jones came against this same Dream team, and the Liberty still had to rally from a 17-point second-half deficit at home just to eke out a 5-point win (which was one of their two non-covers with Jones).

The Dream are 6-2 this season at home, with the two losses coming by five points to a full-strength Fever team and by four points to a full-strength Lynx team—with those versions being two of the better teams in the WNBA. Atlanta was also up heading into the final two minutes in both of those games before each opponent rallied at the end. I just don't see a Liberty team missing Jones and fellow starter Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket) giving the Dream that same level of challenge.

Mercury -6 and Aces/Mercury Over 167

The Mercury are playing the best basketball of any WNBA team right now, and I think they should be getting more respect than the 6 points they're laying for this contest.

These two teams just met two weeks ago, with the Mercury beating the Aces 76-70 on the road. Now that was without A'ja Wilson, and the Aces are certainly a better team with the three-time MVP in the lineup. Las Vegas is more of an Over team with a healthy Wilson because she's a big boost for the Aces' offense, and the defense has still been a mess even with the all-world defender patrolling the paint.

The only reason why the Over is a half-unit play is because I'm worried about the blowout potential here, meaning a slower fourth quarter and bench players in instead of starters. First-half totals aren't up yet as of Saturday afternoon, or else that would be my stronger look.

I still like the full-game total, though, as the Mercury has been playing with the fastest tempo of any WNBA team of late, and their offense is an absolute flamethrower right now. Over the past four games, the Mercury lead the WNBA in pace, and the Aces are sixth (all with a healthy Wilson). They have an incredible number of scoring options—five different players scored in double figures last game against the Liberty. And that was with Lexi Held (8.7 PPG) out and Monique Akoa Makani (21 points three games ago, also against the Liberty) "only" scoring nine.

The Mercury have scored 100 points in each of their last two games, breaking the WNBA record for most 3-pointers in a two-game span with 35. They also have implemented a tremendous pressure defense, leading to lots of turnovers and fastbreak opportunities. Both of those first halves (against the Liberty and Sky) each crossed the 100-point mark before the half, and both fourth quarters were the lowest-scoring quarter in each contest because of the blowout factor.

So whether it's the first-half Over or potentially live betting the Under if this game gets out of hand, there are other good angles to tackle this total as well.

Overall record: 30-28, +6.22 units