Kentucky vs. St. John's prediction, pick, odds, spread: CBS Sports Classic debut for Rick Pitino, Red Storm
Here's what you need to know when the Wildcats meet the No. 22 Red Storm in the CBS Sports Classic
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3 min read
A giant missed opportunity.
That's what is looming for the loser of Saturday's showdown between No. 22 St. John's and Kentucky at the CBS Sports Classic. For St. John's, it's one last opportunity in nonconference play to notch its first Quad 1 victory of the season. For Kentucky, it's a chance to prove that it can get off the mat after being battered, bruised and tossed aside by Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina and Gonzaga.
Oh, and there's history here. Pitino led Kentucky to the national championship in 1996. The captain of that club? Current UK coach Mark Pope.
Fast-forward 29 years, and Pitino's prized offseason acquisition is former Kentucky forward Bryce Hopkins.
Does familiarity breed contempt? Pope would push back on that fable, but there's so much on the line for two teams that have talent galore but still haven't quite found themselves.
Let's dive into this matchup.
Bracketology: Where Kentucky, North Carolina stand before CBS Sports Classic; conference champions projected
David Cobb
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Where to watch Kentucky vs. St. John's live
Date: Saturday, Dec. 20 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Arena -- Atlanta
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium
Kentucky vs. St. John's: Need to know
Can St. John's guard the ball? Last season, there were no weak links in St. John's defense. That is not the case this season. The gameplan for good guards has been to find the mismatch and put 'em in the action as much as possible. Those targets specifically have been Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon or Dylan Darling, and it's led to big nights for Auburn's Tahaad Pettiford (27 points) and Alabama's Labaron Philon (25 points).
Overall, St. John's is allowing over 32 points per game in pick-and-rolls against high-major competition, per Synergy. Not good enough. The bully-ball gameplan that Kentucky used against Indiana won't work in this matchup against this uber-athletic St. John's frontcourt, but Jaland Lowe will have advantageous matchups at his disposal in pick-and-rolls. If Lowe plays well, Kentucky's got a real chance.
Spotlight on the Bryce Hopkins-Mo Dioubate battle: Pitino has been a burr in Hopkins' saddle after a zero-rebound, three-turnover showing earlier this week against DePaul. I expect a rejuvenated effort from Hopkins against his former team, but Kentucky will very likely sic Dioubate onto him. This matchup could tilt the scales.
Can Hopkins check Dioubate and keep him from ravaging the offensive boards? Can Hopkins make good decisions under pressure and not let Dioubate change the game with takeaways for touchdowns? Can Dioubate defend without fouling? Hopkins is drawing a sky-high 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes. If Dioubate is in foul trouble, the tenor of Kentucky's defense changes dramatically.
Will Jayden Quaintance make his debut, and what does it look like? No Kentucky player has a higher NBA ceiling than Quaintance. Returning to game action 10 months after a torn ACL is remarkable, all things considered, but that's firmly on the table for the Arizona State transfer. The 6-9 big man is one of the best defenders in the country, period.
Quaintance practiced in full this week, but his status for Saturday is still up in the air. Even if he plays just 10 minutes, that's an enormous boon for a Kentucky front-line that will be tested by Hopkins, Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell and Ruben Prey.
Kentucky vs. St. John's prediction, picks
This is an objectively brutal game to handicap. The best version of St. John's shows up in transition when Ian Jackson can show off his jet-like quickness, Mitchell can show off his run-and-jump skillset and Zuby Ejiofor can turn and burn. For the most part, Kentucky's defense has done a good job of limiting transition opportunities, but I don't think that holds in this matchup. Pitino has steered away from playing Mitchell, Ejiofor and Hopkins together lately, but I think this is the spot to unleash it again.
St. John's has totaled a 49.6% free-throw attempt rate and a gazillion shots at the rim when those three guys are on the floor together, per CBB Analytics. There's a path for St. John's to overwhelm Kentucky's consistently inconsistent frontcourt with a barrage of big-boy drives and offensive rebounds. Plus, if they can get Dioubate in foul trouble, it could be a bloodbath on the glass in the Johnnies' favor.
St. John's just knows where its bread is buttered right now more than Kentucky. Pick: St. John's -3.5
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