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I'm going to let you in on an insider secret: picking upset alerts is a hard task. 

This has been my favorite piece to write this season, not because it is easy, but because it's a challenge. The potential for upsets is why we love sports. The underdog fantasy is one that we all get wrapped up in at one point or another. But Vegas is Vegas for a reason, and going against it backfires more than it pays off. 

Like every pick, putting teams on upset alert is a little bit of a guessing game and bowl season is even more difficult to predict than the regular season. But for every game that goes chalk, there's a Troy win over LSU. 

Each week throughout the season, I gave you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. I'll continue that for bowl season. As an extra challenge, I try to avoid games in which the lines are well within a touchdown with exceptions being made for cases that warrant them. I'm also going to steer clear of this year's College Football Playoff semifinals since no outcome in either game would be considered an upset by any stretch. 

Las Vegas Bowl: No. 25 Boise State vs. Oregon

When: Saturday, Dec. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Las Vegas, Nevada | Opening line: Oregon -5.5 

Why it's listed: Oregon is up to a touchdown favorite, which makes this a tough game to overlook. Personally, this game feels like it goes one of two ways: Oregon, with health on its side, wins this game by double digits or Boise State pulls out a classic Broncos upset in a squeaker. The promotion of co-offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal to head coach of the Ducks in the wake of Willie Taggart's departure for Florida State, along with the uncertain future of defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, are fascinating focal points. Also, Ducks running back Royce Freeman is sitting out the game. 

Boise State wins if: Running back Alexander Mattison goes wild. Mattison has been hampered with an ankle injury, but still managed to rush for 1,074 yards this year. Beyond that, the Broncos don't have much of a ground game. That's going to be critical in facing a Ducks team that can run and score. 

Oregon wins if: Cristobal keeps the train moving without accidentally trying to take a corner at full speed and derailing the whole thing. This isn't a job audition, but first impressions are important. Oregon isn't ranked, but it's a dangerous team. A healthy Justin Herbert makes Oregon's offense run at a level we're all more familiar with and a good game can launch him into the Heisman Trophy discussion next year. 

Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State vs. Army

When: Saturday, Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Fort Worth, Texas | Opening line: San Diego State -6

Why it's listed: Hey, would you look at that -- Army's actually good! Not just having a nice season, but good good. And when option-based teams are good, they're especially tough to beat. There are a couple things worth noting here: San Diego State is the top team in the Mountain West against the run, but if you look a little deeper, you'll see the Aztecs also faced the fewest rushing attempts in their conference. Football Outsiders rates SDSU's run D as good, but not as stingy as the raw stats say. And Army has been mixing up its looks to incorporate more shotgun-based option attacks with some success. 

Army wins if: It keeps San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny off the field. It's pretty simple. Penny is the nation's leading rusher, but Army controls the clock as well as any team in college football. Penny is also second behind only Bryce Love in explosive running plays of more than 20 yards. He'll get his yards and Army isn't nearly good enough against the run to simply slow him down.

San Diego State wins if: Its defense wins first and second downs. I'm talking negative plays here (meaning three or fewer yards). Army has three games this season in which it didn't complete a pass, and one in which it didn't even attempt one. Army is a big four-down offense so putting them in obvious pass-or-punt situations is a must. 

Cotton Bowl: No. 8 USC vs. No. 5 Ohio State

When: Friday, Dec. 29, 8:30 p.m. ET | Where: Arlington, Texas | Opening line: Ohio State -6.5

Why it's listed: Why would it not be? Two power programs with a near touchdown line? This one is easy ... [/looks around suspiciously] almost ... too easy. Anyway, it's been an uneven season for both programs, but when they're cooking, they're good enough to beat anyone in the country. Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is 10-3 in bowls, but only 2-2 in his last four. 

USC wins if: Its front seven dominates. With any luck, the Trojans will get linebacker Porter Gustin back from a toe injury that's sidelined him for most of the season (don't hold your breath, though). Even still, USC has a solid front that needs to get to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett -- that would be one of the top edge rushers in the nation, Uchenna Nwosu -- and be able to stay with the Buckeyes' speedy receivers. 

Ohio State wins if: Barrett has one of his "good" games. I feel a little bad that we're at Barrett's last game and his legacy is still somewhat enigmatic. When he's on a roll, he's a winner of the rarest variety. His fourth quarter against Penn State earlier this season was what his team needed in the worst way. But, man, the loss to Iowa was some bad, bad J.T. football. USC's Sam Darnold is hailed as a clutch player when it matters, but Barrett trumps him in experience in that category. 

Peach Bowl: No. 12 UCF vs. No. 7 Auburn

When: Monday, Jan. 1, 12:30 p.m. ET | Where: Atlanta | Opening line: Auburn -9.5

Why it's listed: UCF is in an interesting position because coach Scott Frost is moving on to Nebraska, but will coach the Knights in the bowl game. This is a rare move anyway, but it's especially curious given the new early signing period starting Dec. 20. Can he balance both responsibilities? That's what worries me here, but I'll be damned if UCF's players don't run through a brick wall for the guy even though he's leaving them. And the Knights can play up the disrespect card for going unbeaten and not even sniffing the top 10, let alone a playoff spot. 

UCF wins if: It protects up front. Auburn has a formidable defensive line that ranks among the top 10 in the country, per Football Outsiders. However, UCF ranks atop the AAC in fewest sacks allowed. It's going to be that protection and ability to net positive plays (4 yards or more) on first and second downs that will determine the outcome. Remember: the Knights have the No. 1 scoring offense in the FBS. They can win a shootout because they have the speed to do so. 

Auburn wins if: It re-energizes its running game. Trying to work without a healthy Kerryon Johnson was bad news for Auburn in the SEC Championship Game and his status for this game is undetermined as of now. On a larger scale, Auburn's offense is unstoppable when it's creative, but there have been times in which coach Gus Malzahn goes full "NCAA Football" and tries to hit the big play every single time, which rarely works. But the misdirections and short passes, which are an extension of the running game anyway, are where Auburn slices and dices defenses. 

Outback Bowl: South Carolina vs. Michigan

When: Monday, Jan. 1, noon ET | Where: Tampa, Florida | Opening line: Michigan -8.5

Why it's listed: I mean, do you trust the Wolverines to beat an opponent of any quality by more than a touchdown? Michigan doesn't even have a win against a team that finished over .500 on the season. The challenge for South Carolina will be mustering any kind of offense of its own -- offensive coordinator Kurt Roper was just fired -- but this one could be just ugly enough that Michigan messes around and loses this thing because of some hero drive from Gamecocks quarterback Jake Bentley.

South Carolina wins if: It gets two scores off of turnovers. Michigan is -2 in turnover margin and can be charitable with the ball. 

Michigan wins if: It gets two scores off of turnovers. (Seriously.) Bentley has thrown at least two picks in three of his last four games.