Predicting College Football Playoff overreactions: Kalen DeBoer in hot water, the Group of Five belongs

There should be plenty to overreact to as the College Football Playoff commences on Friday

The College Football Playoff is (almost) here. This is what the entire 2025 season has been leading towards. Over the next month or so, the 12 best teams in the nation will battle it out for the sport's top prize. 

This will be the second year of the 12-team format, though it will look a little different. The playoff is transitioning to a straight-seeding model where the top four teams -- regardless of if they won a conference championship or not -- earned a first-round bye. 

Even so, No. 2 Ohio State is the only top-four seed without a title to its name. No. 1 Indiana, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech all won their respective conferences. That's a testament to how strong the Buckeyes, who will be defending their 2024 national title, were this season. 

They're still seen as a favorite to repeat. But you play the games for a reason. Though the College Football Playoff isn't as wild as other tournament formats around the world of sports, it can still lend itself to chaos. 

So, with the first round approaching, it felt appropriate to take a stab at predicting some overreactions we will have once the dust from this weekend settles. 

The Group of Five belongs

This may seem silly to include as an overreaction, especially since the current College Football Playoff format encourages Group of Five participation. There's a spot reserved for at least one Group of Five school and, thanks to some ACC tomfoolery, we even get to see two programs from that level test their luck on college football's biggest stage this season. 

But the arguments are already starting. On social media and even on television, you will find a fair few fans and pundits alike arguing that No. 12 James Madison and No. 11 Tulane do not belong. They cite an apparent talent gulf between the Group of Five and the Power Four. 

That gulf does exist. It's why a true Cinderella run, the likes of which we see during March's NCAA Tournament, seems improbable in college football. Group of Five schools don't have the same resources that Power Four programs do and, thus, have a more difficult time acquiring and retaining talent. 

That alone isn't sufficient reason to bar them completely from competing for the sport's biggest prize. Just because a James Madison or Tulane national title seems improbable, that doesn't mean it's impossible. 

The crowd against Group of Five teams in the playoff will likely grow this weekend. Both the Dukes and the Green Wave are three-score underdogs in their respective first-round games. 

The Group of Five deserves a chance, regardless. It should not be completely eliminated because of a handful of blowouts or hypothetical projections. If those are the criteria for a playoff, only a select few elites should make it on a yearly basis, and the actual accomplishments leading up to the playoff don't matter. 

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Kalen DeBoer's seat gets scorching 

Alabama fans are already uncertain about coach Kalen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide were, frankly, lucky to make the College Football Playoff after an embarrassing performance against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. 

That 28-7 defeat put a bow on a rough close to the 2025 campaign for Alabama. The Crimson Tide went 2-2 in their last four games against FBS opponents. Both of their losses came against currently ranked opponents. The wins -- against LSU and Auburn -- were largely uninspiring. 

Now Alabama has to travel and play an Oklahoma team that it lost to at home on Oct. 25. The Sooners are a nightmare matchup for Alabama's ailing offense. 

The rematch will go about the same way as the first game, which will make the noise surrounding DeBoer's future at Alabama even louder. He's a very good coach with a proven track record and perhaps a change of scenery could benefit both sides if things go south Friday night. Maybe Michigan provides a lifeline for DeBoer. 

Ole Miss won't miss Lane Kiffin...

... for now, at least. Look beyond the playoff and things look more perilous, especially since a majority of Ole Miss' offensive staff will follow Kiffin to LSU at the end of the season. It's seems like almost a sure thing that some prolific players will tag along, as well. 

Ole Miss fans will happily watch Kiffin go if it means a deep playoff run. He got them to this point. Now it's up for those left behind -- including new coach Pete Golding -- to finish the job. The Rebels are capable of doing that. 

They'll come out Saturday and get another statement win to set the tone for what could be a deep run. Ole Miss shouldn't have any trouble against a Tulane team that it beat 45-10 in the regular season. 

From there, the Rebels get Georgia. The Bulldogs are good, but they aren't as unstoppable as they have been in the past. Ole Miss had a 35-26 lead against Georgia entering the fourth quarter of their Oct. 18 showdown. The Rebels crumbled in the fourth quarter, but perhaps Golding and Co. learned some crucial lessons that could help them this time around. 

Ole Miss' roster is still in tact, including star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and All-SEC running back Kewan Lacy. Most of the coaches are staying in place, for now.

Pull a couple wins and Kiffin will be a distant memory.  

Round 1 sets stage for SEC embarrassment 

This writer has long predicted that the 2025 College Football Playoff will be rough for the SEC. Nothing about the last month or so has changed that projection. 

Texas A&M whiffs of fraudulence. The Aggies got exposed a bit in their regular season finale, as they were eliminated from SEC contention with a 27-17 loss to Texas. Though that was their first setback of the year, it did shine a light on A&M's flaws. 

All seven of their conference wins came against teams with a losing record. They beat four SEC opponents that fired their coaches midseason. A&M could have a tough time against Miami. 

It probably doesn't matter who wins between Oklahoma and Alabama. Neither looks like anything more than fodder for top-seeded Indiana. 

Ole Miss will probably get to the quarterfinals and, in that scenario, the SEC would be guaranteed a semifinal team since the Rebels would play Georgia. At least the SEC has that going for it.