Week 17 Fantasy Pitching Planner
The only constant about tracking and projecting pitching rotations is change. Eric Mack goes through all 30 staffs for Week 17 in his Pitching Planner.
We go around baseball's rotations every Sunday of the season in our weekly Pitching Planner. We highlight every matchup, recommended two-start options, sleepers and busts and much more.
Arizona Diamondbacks
-
Dan Haren vs PHI Hamels
-
Jon Garland vs PHI Moyer, at NYM Pelfrey
-
Doug Davis at NYM Hernandez
-
Max Scherzer at NYM Perez
-
Yusmeiro Petit vs PHI Happ
Two-starter(s): Garland and Haren. Haren is a must-start, while
Garland is a nice sleeper for deeper leagues, especially with that
favorable second matchup.
Who is getting skipped: None. They
have a Thursday off day, but we don't see Davis, Scherzer or Garland
getting skipped.
One-week sleeper: Garland. He has posted five
consecutive quality starts. Just in time to get traded, perhaps. He is
pitching well and getting a favorable second start, but the potential
for a mid-week trade could scare you off.
One-week bust: Petit.
He probably doesn't belong in the rotation and he might not be if the
D-Backs add young starters to the mix at the trade deadline.
Atlanta Braves
-
Derek Lowe vs LAD Wolf
-
Javier Vazquez at FLA VandenHurk
-
Tommy Hanson vs LAD Schmidt
-
Jair Jurrjens at FLA Nolasco, vs LAD Billingsley
-
Kenshin Kawakami at FLA Johnson
Two-starter(s): Jurrjens. He is a must-start in all leagues,
regardless of the matchups.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Kawakami. He is underowned on CBSSports.com at just 33
percent. He is pitching better than that.
One-week bust: None.
All five of the Braves starters a decent starts this week and most weeks.
Baltimore Orioles
-
Jeremy Guthrie vs BOS Smoltz
-
David Hernandez vs BOS Beckett
-
Bradley Bergesen vs KC Hochevar
-
Jason Berken vs KC Bannister, vs BOS Buchholz
-
Rich J. Hill vs KC Chen
-
Chris Tillman vs KC Greinke
Two-starter(s): Berken/TBD. They are high-risk options even in
the deepest of AL-only leagues. Berken and Hill are going to start
Monday and Tuesday, while Tillman is expected to come up Wednesday to
make his debut as the Orioles temporarily go with a six-man rotation. We
figure Tillman will remain in the rotation with a solid effort, while
the worst of Berken or Hill will be sent to the bullpen or the minors.
Our guess is Berken stays because of his youth, but not because of his
results.
Who is getting skipped: None. But one of Berken or
Hill won't get a second start, while the other will.
One-week
sleeper: Tillman. His first matchup likely won't make him a winner,
but you have to take the flier on him in any league right now.
One-week
bust: Hernandez, Guthrie, Berken and Hill. The former two are at
least safe in the rotation right now, but we don't like their matchup.
Boston Red Sox
-
Josh Beckett vs OAK Cahill, at BAL Hernandez
-
Jon Lester vs OAK Gonzalez
-
John Smoltz at BAL Guthrie
-
Clay Buchholz vs OAK Mazzaro, at BAL Berken
-
Brad Penny vs OAK Anderson
Two-starter(s): Beckett and Buchholz. They are must-starts in all
leagues, although we could see reason to consider Buchholz more
advisable than a must-start.
Who is getting skipped: None.
Penny is on the trading block, though, and could be dealt before or
after his Wednesday start.
One-week sleeper: Buchholz. He was
unimpressive in his second start, but we like his matchups too much to
not advise using the rookie.
One-week bust: Smoltz. He hasn't
been good yet, so consider him more of a risk than the Red Sox other
starters. We still like his matchup, though.
Chicago Cubs
-
Carlos Zambrano vs HOU Rodriguez, at FLA Miller
-
Ryan Dempster vs HOU Oswalt, at FLA Nolasco
-
Rich Harden at FLA Volstad
-
Randy Wells vs HOU Hampton
-
Kevin Hart vs HOU Ortiz
Two-starter(s): Zambrano and Dempster. Big Z is a must-start,
while Dempster is risky coming off the DL. You cannot be sure of his
health or stamina. We would only advise using him in deeper leagues.
Who
is getting skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: Hart. The Ted Lilly injury gives Hart a stay in the rotation and he has
earned it. He is much more capable of being a winner than you might have
thought, especially since the Cubs are due for a strong second half.
One-week
bust: Dempster. Ordinarily we would say start all of the Cubs
starters, but Dempster is a question mark coming off the DL and getting
those matchups.
Chicago White Sox
-
Mark Buehrle at MIN Baker, vs NYY Sabathia
-
John Danks at MIN Perkins, vs NYY Burnett
-
Gavin Floyd vs NYY Mitre
-
Jose Contreras vs NYY Pettitte
-
Bartolo Colon at MIN Liriano
Two-starter(s): Danks and Buehrle. Buehrle has to be active after
his perfect game, while Danks is returning from an injury and is more of
a question mark. We would still take a shot on him in most formats.
Who
is getting skipped: Clayton Richard.
The White Sox needed a six-man rotation last week, but Colon sticks in
the rotation, while Richard will be a lefty in the bullpen.
One-week
sleeper: Colon. He came back with a quality start against the Tigers
and is a sleeper for deeper leagues as long as he stays healthy.
Historically, that isn't long, but you can get a ride out of him this
week.
One-week bust: Richard and Contreras. One is back in the
bullpen while the other has lost back-to-back starts and is facing the
Yankees.
Cincinnati Reds
-
Aaron Harang vs SD Latos
-
Bronson Arroyo vs SD Correia, vs COL Marquis
-
Johnny Cueto vs SD Stauffer
-
Micah Owings vs COL Cook
-
Homer Bailey vs SD Geer, vs COL Jimenez
Two-starter(s): Bailey and Arroyo. Bailey is high risk, while
Arroyo is viable in most formats. He was coming off back-to-back strong
starts before faltering last time out.
Who is getting skipped: None.
A return of Edinson Volquez will bump
Bailey back to the minors, but it doesn't figure to come before the end
of the week.
One-week sleeper: Arroyo and Owings. They are
risks worth taking in deeper formats this week.
One-week bust: Bailey.
It is getting painful waiting for that talent to come through. You can't
count on him.
Cleveland Indians
-
Cliff Lee vs DET Porcello
-
Carl Pavano at LAA Saunders, vs DET Galarraga
-
David Huff at LAA Weaver
-
Aaron Laffey at LAA Lackey
-
Jeremy Sowers vs DET Jackson
Two-starter(s): Pavano. He is a risky option, especially against
a pair of first-place clubs.
Who is getting skipped: None. But
the Indians could go with a four-man rotation for a couple of turns
after Thursday's off day. It could happen if Lee is dealt before Aug. 1.
In that event, Huff would move up for a second start. Also, Fausto Carmona's return looms in Triple-A.
One-week sleeper: None.
We don't trust any of the non-Lee Indians starters right now.
One-week
bust: Everyone but Lee. Sowers had a surprisingly effective return
from the minors, but he draws a tough matchup, too.
Colorado Rockies
-
Aaron Cook at CIN Owings
-
Ubaldo Jimenez at NYM Perez, at CIN Bailey
-
Jason Marquis at NYM Pelfrey, at CIN Arroyo
-
Jason Hammel at NYM Santana
-
Jorge De La Rosa at NYM Niese
Two-starter(s): Jimenez and Marquis. They are at least advisable
in all leagues, perhaps even must-starts this week.
Who is getting
skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: De La Rosa. He has been
on fire and the Mets are a favorable matchup for him.
One-week
bust: Hammel. We would still trust him in deeper leagues, but he is
the one Rockies pitcher that draws a bad matchup this week.
Detroit Tigers
-
Justin Verlander at TEX Feldman
-
Edwin Jackson at CLE Sowers
-
Rick Porcello at CLE Lee
-
Armando Galarraga at TEX Hunter, at CLE Pavano
-
Luke French at TEX Padilla
Two-starter(s): Galarraga. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues,
albeit against a pair of teams that can score runs.
Who is getting
skipped: None. But we could see Porcello getting moved back again.
He has been bad for a while now and the Tigers need to save innings on
his young arm. French would pick up a second start and is a sleeper in
deeper formats right now, too.
One-week sleeper: Galarraga and
French. They are starting at Texas, but they are pitching well enough to
take the shot on them.
One-week bust: Porcello. He could be
skipped and shouldn't be expected to get through five with a lead right
now. He has hit the rookie wall.
Florida Marlins
-
Josh Johnson vs ATL Kawakami
-
Ricky Nolasco vs ATL Jurrjens, vs CHC Dempster
-
Chris Volstad vs CHC Harden
-
Rick VandenHurk vs ATL Vazquez
-
Andrew Miller vs CHC Zambrano
Two-starter(s): Nolasco. He draws tough matchups, but he has
kicked his early season funk and looks like a must-start in all leagues
again.
Who is getting skipped: None. The Marlins were going
with a four-man rotation, but Miller is expected to return from the
minors to start Aug. 1 vs. the Cubs.
One-week sleeper: VandenHurk.
He has been really good since returning, but we figure you only want to
trust him in NL-only formats this week.
One-week bust: Miller.
You cannot be sure what you're getting in his return, especially against
the resurgent Cubs and Zambrano.
Houston Astros
-
Roy Oswalt at CHC Dempster, at STL Wainwright
-
Wandy Rodriguez at CHC Zambrano, at STL Carpenter
-
Mike Hampton at CHC Wells
-
Russ Ortiz at CHC Hart
-
Brian Moehler at STL Wellemeyer
Two-starter(s): Rodriguez and Oswalt. We would consider them
must-starts mostly, but their matchups slot them as advisable.
Who
is getting skipped: None. But Ortiz likely should have been in the
bullpen for prospect Bud Norris by now.
One-week
sleeper: Moehler. We might not want you to look right now, but where
has this guy come from since early June? He is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in
July. He had a quality start victory over the Cardinals earlier this
year.
One-week bust: Hampton. His past three starts haven't
been great, but he draws a tolerable matchup in a tough and crucial week
for the surging Astros.
|
|
||
| Player | % Change | |
| 1. | Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox | 24 |
| 2. | Tommy Hunter, SP, Rangers | 24 |
| 3. | Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Rockies | 18 |
| 4. | Brett Cecil, SP, Blue Jays | 15 |
| 5. | Jeff Niemann, SP, Rays | 14 |
| 6. | Joel Pineiro, SP, Cardinals | 12 |
| 7. | Tim Dillard, SP, Brewers | 12 |
| 8. | C.J. Wilson, RP, Rangers | 10 |
| 9. | Luke Hochevar, SP, Royals | 9 |
| 10. | Jarrod Washburn, SP, Mariners | 8 |
Kansas City Royals
-
Zack Greinke at BAL Tillman
-
Brian Bannister at BAL Berken, at TB Shields
-
Luke Hochevar at BAL Bergesen
-
Sidney Ponson at TB Price
-
Bruce Chen at BAL Hill
,
then perhaps Gil Meche at TB Niemann
Two-starter(s): Bannister. The Royals play seven games this week,
but Meche's return from the DL has been moved back to the weekend series
at least. He will bump Chen from the rotation, when/if ready. That takes
away a two-start week from Chen, who was risky anyway. Bannister is a
useful sleeper this week.
Who is getting skipped: Chen. He
will start Monday, but Meche's return likely sends him to the bullpen
over next weekend.
One-week sleeper: Bannister and Hochevar.
Bannister has a 3.20 ERA in his four July starts, while Hochevar has won
four consecutive starts and struck out 13 last time doing so.
One-week
bust: Ponson, Chen and Meche. The Royals have a decision to make on
whether it's Chen or Ponson going to the bullpen for Meche's return.
Meche's return has already been pushed back once, so we cannot advise
any of these guys.
Los Angeles Angels
-
John Lackey vs CLE Laffey
-
Jered Weaver vs CLE Huff, at MIN Perkins
-
Ervin Santana at MIN Blackburn
-
Joe Saunders vs CLE Pavano, at MIN Swarzak
-
vacant or Matt Palmer, who we think
will be skipped
Two-starter(s): Saunders and likely Weaver. The Angels likely
will go with a four-man rotation for a couple of turns, since they have
off days Thursday and the following Monday. That gives Weaver a second
start, but he is a must-start even with one start. Saunders has been
struggling mightily and is best avoided if you have alternatives.
Who
is getting skipped: Likely Palmer. We don't have an official
announcement, but the Angels can go with the four-man rotation and keep
Palmer available in long relief.
One-week sleeper: Santana. He
has been a bit risky this season, but we think he has turned the corner
on his injury woes and general struggles. Trust him more than your
normal 6.79 ERA man.
One-week bust: Saunders. We don't know
where it has gone for him, but we do know it just isn't there right now.
Proceed at your own risk.
Los Angeles Dodgers
-
Chad Billingsley at STL Wainwright, at ATL Jurrjens
-
Clayton Kershaw at STL Pineiro
-
Randy Wolf at STL Carpenter, at ATL Lowe
-
Hiroki Kuroda at STL Lohse
-
Jason Schmidt at ATL Hanson
Two-starter(s): Wolf and Billingsley. They are at least advisable
in all leagues still, despite some struggles.
Who is getting
skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: Kuroda. We said he was
underowned last week and he struck out nine. It certainly helps the
Dodgers stand to make him a consistent winner in the second half.
One-week
bust: Schmidt. You should only be trusting his sub-90s stuff if you
like five-inning pitchers who can be beaten up fairly regularly.
Milwaukee Brewers
-
Yovani Gallardo vs WAS Martin
-
Manny Parra vs WAS Mock
-
Jeff Suppan vs WAS Stammen, at SD Geer
-
Braden Looper at SD Gaudin
-
TBD, likely Tim Dillard vs WAS
Balester, at SD Correia
Two-starter(s): Suppan and perhaps Dillard. They are questionable
options, but their favorable matchups make them risks worth taking in
deeper leagues. The Brewers should beat on these teams this week.
Who
is getting skipped: Mike Burns. The
Brewers are leaning toward Dillard as their new No. 5 starter, which
leaves Burns in long relief. They still hope to make a trade for a
front-line starter before the deadline, though, which would alter the
pitching plans.
One-week sleeper: Suppan. Yes, he has been bad
lately, but the veteran should be able to handle those matchups.
One-week
bust: Burns. We don't see a whole lot of negative from the Brewers
this week, except if you were holding out hope Burns would stay in the
rotation. It is pretty safe to consider him out right now.
Minnesota Twins
-
Scott Baker vs CHW Buehrle
-
Nick Blackburn vs LAA Santana
-
Francisco Liriano vs CHW Colon
-
Glen Perkins vs CHW Danks, vs LAA Weaver
-
Anthony Swarzak vs LAA Saunders
Two-starter(s): Perkins. He is a high-risk option after a
disasterous start last time out. He is also dealing with a sore shoulder.
Who
is getting skipped: Perhaps Perkins. Perkins is needed Monday and is
expected to make the start, but off days Thursday and the following
Monday could allow the Twins to go to a four-man rotation a couple of
turns.
One-week sleeper: Swarzak. Somehow he pitched better
than the more front-end guys last time out. His opponent has been
struggling, too.
One-week bust: Perkins. There is no good
reason to trust him after his eight-run debacle.
New York Mets
-
Johan Santana vs COL Hammel
-
Mike Pelfrey vs COL Marquis, vs ARI Garland
-
Oliver Perez vs COL Jimenez, vs ARI Scherzer
-
Jon Niese vs COL De La Rosa
-
Livan Hernandez vs ARI Davis
Two-starter(s): Pelfrey and Perez. You have to be a real
risk-taker to be confident in these guys right now.
Who is getting
skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: Niese. He made a solid
return and might have turned the corner on his young career. Give him a
shot this week as his flyball pitching suits roomy Citi Field.
One-week
bust: Pelfrey and Perez. It would be easier to run them out there
and pray for them to straighten out if the Mets scored runs. They have
to be sitting in mixed leagues.
New York Yankees
-
CC Sabathia at TB Kazmir, at CHW Buehrle
-
A.J. Burnett at TB Shields, at CHW Danks
-
Andy Pettitte at CHW Contreras
-
Joba Chamberlain at TB Garza
-
Sergio Mitre at CHW Floyd
Two-starter(s): Burnett and Sabathia. They are must-starts in all
leagues.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week sleeper:
Pettitte. He hasn't won since the start of the month, but that shouldn't
last any longer.
One-week bust: Mitre. He won't have to be
great for the Yankees to make him a winner. They could consider a trade
deadline acquisition in his place, though. Own him but be wary of him.
Oakland Athletics
-
Dallas Braden vs TOR Tallet
-
Brett Anderson at BOS Penny
-
Trevor Cahill at BOS Beckett, vs TOR Cecil
-
Vin Mazzaro at BOS Buchholz, vs TOR Romero
-
Gio Gonzalez at BOS Lester
Two-starter(s): Cahill and Mazzaro. They are questionable options
due to their youth, inconsistency and tough first matchup.
Who is
getting skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: Anderson. He has
had some moments lately and was great earlier this month at Fenway Park.
One-week
bust: Cahill, Mazzaro and Gonzalez. We obviously are thinking the
Red Sox will get healthy off the A's back-end rookie starters.
Philadelphia Phillies
-
Cole Hamels at ARI Haren, at SF Zito
-
Joe Blanton at SF Sadowski
-
J.A. Happ at ARI Petit
-
Jamie Moyer at ARI Garland, at SF Lincecum
-
Rodrigo Lopez at SF Sanchez
Two-starter(s): Moyer and Hamels. They are at least advisable in
all leagues this week.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Moyer. The veteran had his winning streak snapped, but the
Phillies should be able to make him a winner against those two offenses.
One-week
bust: None. All of the Phillies starters are viable options this
week. The lone exception could be a trade acquisition that bumps Lopez
to the bullpen.
Pittsburgh Pirates
-
Zach Duke at SF Cain
-
Paul Maholm at SF Lincecum, vs WAS Balester
-
Charlie Morton at SF Zito
-
Ross Ohlendorf vs WAS Lannan
-
Virgil Vasquez vs WAS Stammen
Two-starter(s): Maholm. His recent struggles make him a
questionable option, especially with that tough first matchup.
Who
is getting skipped: None. A Thursday off day would allow them to
skip Vasquez, but we see no reason to do it right now.
One-week
sleeper: Morton. He has been pitching well enough to trust in mixed
leagues now.
One-week bust: Maholm. His matchups are the
toughest among all of the rest of the Pirates starters, who we actually
like this week.
San Diego Padres
-
Kevin Correia at CIN Arroyo, vs MIL TBD
-
Chad Gaudin vs MIL Looper
-
Josh Geer vs CIN Bailey, vs MIL Suppan
-
Mat Latos at CIN Harang
-
Tim Stauffer at CIN Cueto
Two-starter(s): Geer and Correia. They are questionable options
best left for NL-only leagues.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Geer. He has a 1-6 record, but you might want take a risk
on him beating the struggling arms he is opposing.
One-week bust: Latos
and Stauffer. The young arms are intriguing fliers right now, but they
are tough to trust in their matchups this week.
San Francisco Giants
-
Tim Lincecum vs PIT Maholm, vs PHI Moyer
-
Matt Cain vs PIT Duke
-
Barry Zito vs PIT Morton, vs PHI Hamels
-
Jonathan Sanchez vs PHI Lopez
-
Ryan Sadowski vs PHI Blanton
Two-starter(s): Lincecum and Zito. A must-start and a
questionable one, although it helps some that Zito is a lefty against
the left-leaning Phillies.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Zito. You can never be sure when to trust him, but he is a
touch safer at home and has been good after the All-Star break.
One-week
bust: Sanchez and Sadowski. Back-end starters against the Phillies
typically are not a good idea.
Seattle Mariners
-
Felix Hernandez vs TOR Romero, at TEX Hunter
-
Jarrod Washburn vs TOR Rzepczynski, at TEX Padilla
-
Ryan Rowland-Smith vs TOR Halladay
-
Jason M. Vargas at TEX Millwood
-
TBD (Garrett Olson or Brandon Morrow ) at TEX Holland
Two-starter(s): Hernandez and Washburn. King Felix is a
must-start, while Washburn is an advisable one.
Who is getting
skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: Washburn. He could be
dealt before the trade deadline, but that was said late last July, too.
One-week
bust: Rowland-Smith, Vargas and No. 5 TBD. The Mariners rotation is
in flux. We cannot be sure who will start, much less will they help any.
St. Louis Cardinals
-
Chris Carpenter vs LAD Wolf, vs HOU Rodriguez
-
Adam Wainwright vs LAD Billingsley, vs HOU Oswalt
-
Joel Pineiro vs LAD Kershaw
-
Kyle Lohse vs LAD Kuroda
-
Todd Wellemeyer vs HOU Moehler
Two-starter(s): Carpenter and Wainwright. No-brainer must-starts,
even with those matchups.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Pineiro. Guru Dave Duncan has turned this guy into a
must-start ace, if you haven't noticed in small mixed leagues.
One-week
bust: Lohse and Wellemeyer. They haven't been good of late, so don't
use them outside of NL-only leagues this week.
Tampa Bay Rays
-
James Shields vs NYY Burnett, vs KC Bannister
-
Scott Kazmir vs NYY Sabathia
-
Matt Garza vs NYY Chamberlain
-
David Price vs KC Ponson
-
Jeff Niemann vs KC Meche
Two-starter(s): Shields. He is at least advisable in all leagues.
Who
is getting skipped: None.
One-week sleeper: Niemann. The
rookie is hot and a solid option in all leagues now.
One-week
bust: Price. He is up-and-down and tough to gauge. We still have to
advise you start him in that matchup, though.
Texas Rangers
-
Kevin Millwood vs SEA Vargas
-
Vicente Padilla vs DET French, vs SEA Washburn
-
Scott Feldman vs DET Verlander
-
Derek Holland vs SEA Bedard
-
Tommy Hunter vs DET Galarraga, vs SEA Hernandez
Two-starter(s): Hunter and Padilla. They are questionable options
best avoided out of AL-only leagues this week, especially in their
hitter's park.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Feldman. He had been surprisingly effective and able to
beat some aces. Verlander is next, perhaps.
One-week bust: Padilla.
It will be hard to expect much from him coming off the swine flu.
Toronto Blue Jays
-
Roy Halladay at SEA Rowland-Smith
-
Ricky Romero at SEA Hernandez, at OAK Mazzaro
-
Brian Tallet at OAK Braden
-
Marc Rzepczynski at SEA Washburn
-
Brett Cecil at OAK Cahill
Two-starter(s): Romero. He is a solid option for any league this
week.
Who is getting skipped: None. The Blue Jays do have off
days coming up Thursday and the following Monday, but a potential
Halladay trade will keep them from being able to plan a four-man
rotation.
One-week sleeper: Cecil. The rookie is 3-1 and
facing another rookie that is below .500. A Matt Holliday-less A's team can't scare you.
One-week bust: Tallet.
He has been skipped before and could be skipped again.
Washington Nationals
-
John Lannan at PIT Ohlendorf
-
Craig Stammen at MIL Suppan, at PIT Vasquez
-
Collin Balester at MIL Dillard, at PIT Maholm
-
Garrett Mock at MIL Parra
-
J.D. Martin at MIL Gallardo
Two-starter(s): Stammen and Balester. They are high-risk options
even in the deepest of NL-only leagues.
Who is getting skipped: None.
One-week
sleeper: Lannan. He is the staff ace and draws the most favorable
matchup of all the Nationals starters.
One-week bust: Everyone
except Lannan. The Brewers are going to rough up the Nationals young
arms.
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