2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Picking No. 1 overall in a PPR draft could give you the best running back stable in the league
It's OK to start your PPR draft with three running backs. It may even be advisable if you have an early pick.
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- Picking in PPR from: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
- Picking in non-PPR from: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
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Editor's note: Our latest non-PPR pick-by-pick series was done in June and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
By now you all should know I'm prone to advising you to zig when others zag. So while I wrote about taking three receivers to start a non-PPR draft from the 11th pick, I'm now here to tell you that in a PPR draft the opportunity may present itself to start with three running backs. Especially if you have one of the first three picks in the draft.
I started this draft by taking Le'Veon Bell, but it's not an easy decision. A legitimate argument could be made for either Bell or Todd Gurley. The tiebreaker for me is volume, and I'm expecting 30 more touches for Bell. Either way you go, you should be ready to pick at least one more running back at the next turn.
In this draft there were only three running backs taken from pick 12 through 23, which I suspect will be fairly common in this format. That meant I had my choice of Devonta Freeman and Christian McCaffrey ... I chose both. Freeman has three straight seasons as a top-13 back in PPR, and McCaffrey, as I'll discuss below, has top-five upside in PPR.
Of course, this approach means you need to hit on receivers later in the draft, and I took five cracks at it from Round 4-9. Here's my team from No. 1 overall:
- 1.1 Le'Veon Bell, RB, PIT
- 2.12 Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL
- 3.1 Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
- 4.12 Michael Crabtree, WR, BAL
- 5.1 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
- 6.12 DeVante Parker, WR, MIA
- 7.1 Jamison Crowder, WR, WAS
- 8.12 Marquise Goodwin, WR, SF
- 9.1 Kelvin Benjamin, WR, BUF
- 10.12 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
- 11.1 Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ
- 12.12 Eric Ebron, TE, IND
- 13.1 Eagles DST
- 14.12 Kai Forbath, K, MIN
I'm going to talk more about McCaffrey, Crabtree and Crowder below, so we can focus on the rest of the picks here. Parker, Goodwin and Benjamin are all three receivers who I drafted in both this draft and the non-PPR version. Why? A combination of upside and value.
For Parker, this is almost entirely about upside. Let's dream for a moment he plays 16 for the first time in his career. That would give him 118 targets at last year's pace, but with Jarvis Landry out of town, let's up that to 130. Over his career, Parker has caught just under 60 percent of his targets and he was at 59.4 percent last year. At that rate he gets 77 catches in 2018 for 1,054 yards at his career average of 13.7 yards per reception. Even if he only scores five touchdowns, he's a top-20 receiver. If he scores eight, he's on the verge of the top 12.
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Goodwin's upside is based more on what he did last year with Jimmy Garoppolo and questions about how effective a 32-year-old Pierre Garcon will be, but Benjamin is almost entirely value. It's just hard to fathom that a receiver with his track record and target opportunity is available in the ninth round. Forget 2017, there's a reason more receivers don't get traded midseason.
The Aaron Rodgers pick was uncharacteristic for me, but there wasn't another receiver I felt great about at that turn, I wasn't taking a fourth running back, and I'd rather use that pick on the No. 1 quarterback than the No. 4 tight end. It did effectively make the decision for me to wait on tight end, which meant I landed another player I drafted in both drafts, Eric Ebron. There is no shortage of low-end tight ends you could draft in this spot, but I love Ebron's upside with Andrew Luck and believe he's the No. 1 tight end in their offense.
Favorite pick: Christian McCaffrey
One way to look at taking a third running back with your third pick is that player is your No. 1 receiver and your second receiver is your flex. McCaffrey certainly fits that bill because his 230 PPR points would have put him inside the top 12 receivers in 2017. And that number isn't anywhere close to his ceiling. In the first half of last season, McCaffrey had double-digit carries just once and finished with only 117 carries on the season. The Panthers have hinted he'll be more involved in 2018 and it's probably fair to assume he'll be more efficient than 3.7 yards per carry. If he's just what he was last year, he's a good value at this pick, but he could be so much more.
Pick I might regret: Jamison Crowder
We didn't get the Crowder breakout we'd hoped for in 2017, and now his quarterback is Alex Smith. Smith is coming off a remarkable year, but his tendencies outside of 2017 indicate trouble for the receiver. Smith relies heavily on his tight end in the passing game, and his legs if no one is open immediately. A Crowder disappointment would be amplified by the fact I was choosing between him Garcon, Rishard Matthews, Allen Hurns and Corey Davis. I expect at least one of those receivers will outperform the seventh-round price tag, so Crowder better as well.
Player who could make or break my team: Michael Crabtree
Let's start by talking about how this pick works. Crabtree is the clear No. 1 in Baltimore, hauls in a ton of targets, continues his ridiculous success in the red zone and finishes as a top 17 PPR wide receiver for the third time in four seasons. That's pretty close to my expectation, to be honest. But I see the danger lurking. Crabtree was pretty terrible in 2017, and Joe Flacco is a downgrade from Derek Carr. Crabtree could be 2017 Mike Wallace, or even worse, Jeremy Maclin. If that happens, this team is counting on two of Parker, Crowder, Goodwin, Benjamin on a weekly basis. That's not exactly a comforting thought.



















