2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Picking No. 4 overall in a PPR draft you shouldn't shy away from Ezekiel Elliott
PPR isn't Ezekiel Elliott's best format, but if he's there for you at No. 4 you shouldn't pass on him.
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- Picking in PPR from: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
- Picking in non-PPR from: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
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Editor's note: Our latest non-PPR pick-by-pick series was done in June and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Volume is king in Fantasy Football and in PPR target volume counts twice. You're getting the expected receiving yardage from those targets and a point from every pass actually caught. So I understand why running backs like Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley get a boost over Ezekiel Elliott in the format. Just make sure that reasoning doesn't cause you to let Elliott fall too far.
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In his rookie season, Elliott had nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage on 354 total touches. After a six-game suspension, his pace last year was even better. Elliott was less efficient running the ball, but he saw more targets per game (3.8) and averaged over 10 yards per reception for a second consecutive season. In those 10 games he was on pace for 430 receiving yards and in the offseason his team lost Dez Bryant and Jason Witten.
Elliot has played 25 games in the NFL and averaged 129 yards per game. If he gets even a slight bump in targets this year, he's a threat to be the No. 1 running back in Fantasy regardless of format. I was thrilled to land him at No. 4 in this draft, and you should be too, if you're as fortunate.
Here's the rest my team from No. 4 overall:
- 1.4 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
- 2.9 T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
- 3.4 LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF
- 4.9 Marvin Jones, WR, DET
- 5.4 Mark Ingram, RB, NO
- 6.9 Jimmy Graham, TE, GB
- 7.4 Rishard Matthews, WR, TEN
- 8.9 Kenny Stills, WR, MIA
- 9.4 Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN
- 10.9 Kenny Golladay, WR, DET
- 11.4 Philip Rivers, QB, LAC
- 12.9 Jordy Nelson, WR, OAK
- 13.4 Texans DST
- 14.9 Matt Prater, K, DET
Analysis
Favorite pick: Giovani Bernard
A reasonable expectation for Bernard in PPR this year is a No. 3 running back who is more of a bye-week replacement than anything else. If that's the case, I still really like this pick. But it's the upside of Bernard that is intoxicating at later points in the draft. Bernard shared the job with Jeremy Hill from 2014-16 and gave us a pair of top-20 seasons in this format (in 2016 he only played 10 games, but once again had a top-20 pace). I expect Joe Mixon earns a larger share of the load than Hill did, but it's certainly no guarantee. If Mixon struggles or gets hurt, Bernard is likely a top 20 back once again, which makes him a great late-round pick in PPR.
Pick I might regret: Mark Ingram
I don't really believe I'm going to regret this pick, but of the eight teams I drafted in this exercise, this is one of my favorites and I had to choose someone for this section. The path to regret is not a far-fetched one. It involves McCoy (see below) suffering an injury before Ingram has completed his suspension and one of Derrius Guice, Jay Ajayi or Dion Lewis getting off to a fast start.
To be clear, if I was looking for my first or second running back with this pick, I'd have taken one of those guys. But with my No. 3 running back, I'm shooting for the upside of what Ingram should be in the second half of the season. Coming down the stretch with Elliott, McCoy and Ingram would make this team awfully tough to deal with.
Player who could make or break my team: LeSean McCoy
There are a lot to be concerned about with LeSean McCoy in non-PPR, but in this format, age is the only one that actually scares me. Even if the Bills offense is a disaster, I'd expect McCoy will be heavily involved in the passing game as the Bills play from behind. He makes my team if he's once again a top-10 running back in PPR. In that scenario, he and Elliott could do enough damage on a weekly basis to take the pressure off the rest of the squad. But if McCoy goes down in training camp or Week 1, this team could be in a big hole before Mark Ingram returns from his suspension.



















