2022 Fantasy Football draft prep: Preseason Week 2 helps highlight ADP concerns and values

Preseason games start to raise questions and reveal ADP values, too

Following the NFL Draft, my ranking of the top rookie running backs when it came to their Fantasy value in PPR was Breece Hall, Ken Walker, James Cook, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. After two weeks of preseason action, that order has changed.

While Hall is still No. 1, I have the guys behind him ranked in this order: Pierce, Brian Robinson, Cook and Walker. Allgeier is now behind that group, but you can make a case that Zamir White should now be No. 6 on this list.

Pierce and Robinson both improved following Week 2 of the preseason. For Pierce, he didn't play in Friday's game against the Rams, which is an indication he won the starting job ahead of Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead. Pierce has the chance to be a borderline starter in all leagues, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 7.

Pierce's Average Draft Position on CBS Sports is RB32 at 83.18 overall. I wouldn't be surprised if that continues to climb.

Robinson's ADP is about to skyrocket from RB44 at 130.2 overall. He started the Commanders preseason game against the Chiefs, with Antonio Gibson working as the third-down back with J.D. McKissic (groin) out, as well as handling kickoff returns. This could be a permanent move for Robinson and Gibson, and Gibson is seeing his ADP slide to RB24 at 72.9 overall.

I'm not drafting Gibson in that range anymore, and I'd rather have Robinson in Round 8. Gibson's Fantasy value could be salvaged if McKissic's injury lingers into the season, but if Gibson is behind Robinson on rushing downs and McKissic on passing downs then he's in trouble.

We'll dive into more ADP data following Week 2 of the preseason games here, but some other winners along with Pierce and Robinson include Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Chase Edmonds, Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Isaiah McKenzie, Joshua Palmer, Jahan Dotson, Alec Pierce and Cole Kmet. 

And some players who could see their ADP decline along with Gibson are Josh Jacobs, Isaiah Spiller, Ronald Jones, Treylon Burks, Skyy Moore and Mike Gesicki.

Quarterbacks

Good value

Lawrence looked good against the Steelers with 14-of-21 passing for 133 yards, along with two carries for 13 yards. He led two scoring drives for field goals, but he showed plenty of promise with his new receiving corps, especially Christian Kirk (five catches for 54 yards on eight targets). Lawrence shouldn't be drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this year, but he is a high-end backup to target in all leagues.

Others of note: Russell Wilson (ADP 72.6, QB12), Trey Lance (ADP 98.3, QB14) and Kirk Cousins (ADP 99.2, QB15)

Bad value

I like Burrow as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this season, but he shouldn't be drafted ahead of guys like Dak Prescott (ADP 59.9, QB9), Wilson or Lance. Burrow has amazing receivers and a revamped offensive line, but I'm concerned about his ceiling. While he closed the regular season with 88 Fantasy points in his final two outings against Baltimore and Kansas City, he also had five games in his final eight contests with 18 Fantasy points or less. I don't know if he has top-five upside and selecting him at QB8 seems like a mistake.

Running backs

Good value

I think we forget that Etienne missed all of last season with a foot injury, and he's adjusting to life in the NFL for the first time. He ran better from his first preseason outing against Cleveland to this week against Pittsburgh with eight carries for 29 yards, which included three carries of 5 yards or more. He didn't catch a pass but ran routes on 10 of 21 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. I hope his ADP stays in this range in PPR because he's a steal. James Robinson (Achilles) has yet to play this preseason, but I don't expect Robinson to ruin Etienne's chances of being a breakout this year.

Dillon didn't play in Friday's preseason game against the Saints, which is great. Keep him healthy and ready for the regular season when he's headed for a breakout campaign. He's going to work in tandem with Aaron Jones, and both Packers running backs should be stars. Jones will be a significant factor in the passing game and is worth drafting in early Round 2 in all leagues. I would draft Dillon in Round 4 in non- and 0.5-PPR leagues and Round 5 in PPR. He could lead Green Bay in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and Dillon will also be involved in the passing game. He's an incredible value at his current ADP.

Edmonds was the lead running back for Miami against Las Vegas in Saturday's preseason game, and he had mediocre stats with three carries for 3 yards, along with two catches for 21 yards on three targets. Raheem Mostert didn't play against the Raiders, so we don't know his role yet in tandem with Edmonds, but Edmonds should work on passing downs. According to PFF, he ran seven routes of the 10 snaps he played. I'm drafting Edmonds as a starter in PPR, and I would look for him as early as Round 5. In non- and 0.5-PPR leagues, he should be drafted in Round 6.

Others of note: Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP 101.7, RB37), Nyheim Hines (ADP 141.4, RB51), Isiah Pacheco (ADP 144.4, RB53) and Zamir White (ADP 156.5, RB61)

Bad Value

Jacobs didn't play in Saturday's preseason game against the Dolphins, but he missed practice time with an undisclosed injury during the week. Hopefully, he's OK, but Jacobs is expected to share playing time with Zamir White on rushing downs and Ameer Abdullah on passing downs (Adbullah was also rested at Miami with the starters). And there's still a chance Kenyan Drake could factor into the rotation. I'm still fine with Jacobs as a No. 2 running back this season, but he shouldn't be drafted in Round 4 based on his ADP, even in non-PPR leagues. I'm not looking at Jacobs before Round 5 in all formats.

Reports are that the soft-tissue injury Akers is dealing with is minor, but it's not ideal that he's hurt and missing practice. The good news is Darrell Henderson is hurt also with a similar injury, but Henderson's ADP is 126.3 at RB43. The investment for Akers is more expensive, and it's hard to justify drafting him in Round 4. He's fine in Round 5 or later, and if he returns to practice this week he still has the chance to be a breakout candidate as the lead running back for the Rams. But you don't want to pay up for Akers right now, and Round 4 is too steep while he's not at 100 percent.

Spiller hurt his ankle in Saturday's preseason game against the Cowboys, and hopefully he's OK. But he's been operating as the No. 4 running back for the Chargers behind Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree, and Spiller might not be the handcuff to Ekeler, at least early in the season. I'm still hopeful he can win that job, but he might not be worth a pick in the first 12 rounds as of now. Keep an eye on his health, but you might be better off spending a late-round pick on Kelley instead of Spiller based on the current depth chart.

Wide receivers

Good value

In one drive with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett against Jacksonville, Johnson had a 17-yard reception, and he also had an 11-yard touchdown catch called back due to a penalty. Pickett looks like he's going to win the starting job for the Steelers, and that could be great for Johnson. He should be no worse than a Round 4 pick in PPR and still has top-20 upside. It was also great to see Chase Claypool line up in the slot on 14 of 16 snaps against the Jaguars, and Claypool could be a steal at his current price (ADP 130.7, WR48). George Pickens is now at ADP 114.7, WR41, which is appropriate.

Kirk was the man for Lawrence against the Steelers with eight targets, catching five for 54 yards. This is hopefully the level of involvement we'll see from Kirk all season, and he could emerge as a weekly starter in all leagues. He's a steal at his current price tag, and I'm looking for Kirk as early as Round 6. Lawrence played great against the Steelers, and Kirk was a big reason why with his performance. Let's hope it's a sign of things to come all year.

McKenzie was the main slot receiver for Josh Allen in Saturday's game against the Broncos with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis on the outside, and McKenzie appears locked into that role ahead of Jamison Crowder. McKenzie only had one catch for 10 yards on one target but there's a lot to love about him since he's currently free in the majority of leagues. Davis might also be a bargain at his current price (ADP 71.6, WR27), and I would draft him as early as Round 5 in all formats.

Others of note: Rashod Bateman (ADP 90.1, WR32), Darnell Mooney (ADP 91.1, WR33), Kadarius Toney (ADP 139.1, WR52), Jahan Dotson (ADP 149.9, WR60), Nico Collins (no current ADP data), Joshua Palmer (no current ADP data) and Alec Pierce (no current ADP data)

Bad value

I can't argue about Samuel in Round 2, although I would prefer him toward the back end of the round. But I don't like him as the No. 4 receiver off the board ahead of Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb. I'm concerned that Samuel is going to run less, and we'll see how he adjusts to new quarterback Trey Lance. George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk will continue to command targets, and I expect Samuel to be closer to WR10 than a top-five option, especially in PPR.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Mecole Hardman (groin) out for Saturday's preseason game against Washington, Moore was still behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson. That could change as Moore gets adapted more to the NFL, but it's hard to justify drafting him at his current ADP. Instead, you should draft Valdes-Scantling, who has a better price tag (ADP 133.6, WR51) and likely more upside. Valdes-Scantling had two catches for 14 yards on five targets against the Commanders.

Burks had another rough preseason outing against the Buccaneers on Saturday, and he also injured his left leg. He did have one catch for 4 yards on three targets, but he again played into the fourth quarter with the reserves. We hope Burks is OK, but it's hard to draft him even at his current ADP. Robert Woods is easily the top Titans receiver to draft, and he's at ADP 120.1, WR44. Woods has yet to play in the preseason, but he continues to distance himself from Burks based on how Burks has struggled so far. 

Tight ends

Good value

Kmet was in this spot last week, and he moved up four spots from TE18. But I view Kmet as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, and I would draft him ahead of Dawson Knox (ADP 96.1, TE10), Mike Gesicki (ADP 104.8, TE11), Pat Freiermuth (ADP 112.6, TE12) and Hunter Henry (ADP 127.2, TE13). Kmet played in Thursday's preseason game against Seattle and finished with two catches for 31 yards on three targets, and that's relevant since Justin Fields attempted just seven passes. Kmet has the chance to be a star in PPR this year.

Others of note: Tyler Higbee (ADP 138.9, TE17), David Njoku (ADP 142.7, TE18) and Irv Smith (ADP 151.3, TE24)

Bad value

Gesicki was in this spot last week, and he dropped one spot from TE10. But this is still too soon to draft Gesicki, who appears frustrated in his current role. The Dolphins are using Gesicki more as a traditional tight end and less like a receiver, and he's spending time with the backups during the past two preseason games. It's going to be a struggle for Gesicki to see a consistent amount of targets when Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are healthy, and Gesicki should not be drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this year.