Week 4 NFL DFS: Tournament strategies and player picks for FanDuel, DraftKings
Ben Gretch looks at the Week 4 DFS slate and gives his tournament strategies and top player picks by position.
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Ben Gretch
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3 min read
Each week this season, I'll go through some tournament strategies for that week's slate, then give out some picks I like at each position. Let's start this week's article by discussing some strategies to consider to differentiate tournament lineups in Week 4.
Week 4 tournament strategy session
This season has produced mixed results for the top-end Fantasy options across positions, and it's reflected in the DFS pricing.
Each week, it seems top-end options are underpriced to what we'd expect in prior seasons. With all the injuries, there also seem to be plenty of viable options at the lower end of the pricing spectrum. That's created an atmosphere where it can feel like anything goes, and scores are reflecting it.
With more value than ever and plenty of top plays hitting, Week 3 was a reminder of an important DFS tournament reality — how lineup construction can dictate who wins tournaments.
Early this year, many of the second tier running backs have been shaky. That meant a popular lineup format last week was to pay up for multiple star backs with locked-in workloads, especially given the value receivers available across the board, plus options like Kyle Allen as a viable $4,000 quarterback on DraftKings.
Using DraftKings as an example, the four running backs with the highest ownership percentages in the Millionaire Maker were all among the higher-priced at the position, and each of Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey scored at least 15 points, with Cook and McCaffrey hitting higher-end outcomes at 27.3 and 30.8. Nelson Agholor had nearly double the ownership percentage of any other wide receiver, and he posted 24 points at a dirt cheap salary, while Phillip Dorsett, another reasonably popular cheap wide receiver, scored 18.5.
And for a $4,000 quarterback, Kyle Allen's 25.3 was a big win, especially since his highest-owned pass-catcher (excluding McCaffrey), Greg Olsen, went for 25.5.
Lineups following a popular construction to pay up at running back and down at other positions fared well in a vacuum. But they didn't take down many big tournaments in Week 3, because something else happened. That thing was two high-priced wide receivers, Mike Evans and Keenan Allen, posting 48 and 46.6 points on DraftKings. Both were in at least 10% of the Millionaire Maker lineups, meaning there were plenty of lineups featuring both. And the two of them were so far out in front of all other popular options — the next best non-QB total for a player in at least 6% of lineups was McCaffrey's 30.8 — that they were essentially required to bring down a big tournament.
And if two high-priced wide receivers were required, that meant a different construction than what was popular, even though the popular structure was indeed successful. Both the Millionaire Maker winner and the winner of the $500K Slant featured that receiver duo plus Phillip Lindsay, a $4,300 running back who went off for 29 points. Both lineups also featured Julio Jones as a third high-priced wide receiver, which were the only commonalities across the two lineups other than the Panthers defense, which at 13 points wasn't a difference-maker.
It's a reminder that DFS is a game of unique outcomes, and even if you can't see a way a certain construction will fail, it might fail even while it doesn't; it might be successful but another path might be even better. Put differently, fading a player or a specific construction doesn't necessarily require that path to fail outright. It's entirely possible it's successful but there was still leverage in another option having a higher ceiling.
If you're going to put multiple lineups into large-field GPPs, it's useful to mix up your roster constructions, especially when there seems to be a clearly favored path. Let's get into the picks.
Week 4 DFS Picks
Top players
Position
Quarterbacks
There's not nearly as much clear value this week as there was in Week 3, but you still have to find room in your tournament portfolio to pay up for Mahomes in some lineups as he plays his first career game in a dome. Chiefs stacks are expensive and aren't the surest way to build a high-upside lineup — finding a cheaper quarterback with upside is — but there's potential every week for Mahomes to post such a ridiculous number that he breaks the slate.
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Goff has been a disappointment thus far, but he's played just one home game and it featured an early Drew Brees injury that allowed the Rams to slow things down a bit. Goff is traditionally better in SoCal, and this week he gets a very beatable defense and an opponent that will take to the air as well. This game has shootout potential, and I love Goff stacks that feature Robert Woods given he's also underperformed to date and will likely go lowest-owned of the three Rams' receivers.
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The Giants-Washington matchup is one of my favorite second-tier games to stack, as it features a high over/under, two bad defenses and affordable options on both sides. Jones is coming off a huge game in his first start and is likely to carry decent ownership because of that, but stacking this passing game is an interesting way to fade Wayne Gallman, who will be very popular. I even think stacking Jones with his top pass-catchers and including Gallman is in play here.
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Running Backs
This one's simple: With Justin Jackson out and Melvin Gordon unlikely to play, Ekeler is in line for a huge workload and the Chargers know they have Gordon back next week so they won't need to shy away from giving Ekeler all he can handle. Given the matchup with the Dolphins, the projected volume is enough to make him difficult to fade.
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The Giants didn't activate a third running back until Thursday, and they made the low-impact move of bringing UDFA rookie Jon Hilliman up from their practice squad. There will only be three running backs active, and one will be fullback Elijhaa Penny. It seems very clear Gallman will be in line for a huge workload, something similar to last week when he played every snap after Saquon Barkley was injured. Washington's run defense is just gravy.
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Darrel Williams isn't cheap, but with Damien Williams looking doubtful again and LeSean McCoy a limited participant in practice all week after re-tweaking his ankle in Week 3, Darrel becomes an intriguing option. Darrel led the backfield in snaps by a good margin in Week 3 due to McCoy's injury, and notably kept Darwin Thompson off the field. He caught all five of the passes he saw for 47 yards, and has good size at 225 pounds if he should get called on for some heavy lifting. This pick is largely contingent on McCoy's health — and it was McCoy who got both running back touchdowns for the Chiefs in Week 3 — but the upside's there.
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Wide Receivers
Fantasy's top receiver thus far, Allen is lined up for another big role Sunday even in what might become a blowout. Both Justin Jackson and Mike Williams are out for the Chargers, meaning things will again be concentrated around Allen and Austin Ekeler. There's little reason to get off the hot streak now.
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Woods has been a major disappointment thus far, but part of that is due to some bad luck. In Week 2, Woods had three catches and a touchdown negated by penalty, and he's still running a full set of routes and plenty involved. His day will come, and if you're on Rams stacks this week, it's a great time to bet on that given Woods is the cheapest of the three receivers and also likely to be the lowest-owned.
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Coming off a week where he saw eight targets but totaled just two catches for 17 yards, Golladay is affordable and might go a bit overlooked. He's still plenty talented, and both he and Kerryon Johnson are good guys to be on when the Lions are likely to be playing more up tempo, as they should in Week 4 with the Chiefs in town. Expect Golladay to pile up second half targets if the Lions trail, and he's a great option to pair with Mahomes and Chiefs pass-catchers in a game stack.
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Tight Ends
Waller's price has skyrocketed, but it's for good reason. Through three weeks, Waller's 30% target share of his passing game is five percentage points higher than any other tight end. He's clearly a focal point, and while the Colts will treat him as such, they'll have their hands full without linebacker Darius Leonard or safety Malik Hooker, who will both miss Week 4. They also just got gashed by Austin Hooper to the tune of 7-6-66-2 last week.
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There's an argument to be made that Dissly is worth fading in some contests because he hasn't played a full snap share since his return from a patella tendon tear last year. I'm not really buying that, because he's continued to be productive even in a part-time role so far this year after a famously hot start to his career in 2018 that was quickly cut short by the injury. Dissly now has five touchdowns in seven career games, and simply the potential for him to play more after the trade of Nick Vannett is enough for me to take the plunge against a Cardinals defense that has allowed more points to the tight end position this year than any team by a considerable amount.
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