2016 MLB team preview: Rotation makes Mets World Series contenders

Spring training is well underway, and Opening Day approacheth! That means we're deep in the heart of “team preview” territory. This year, we're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now the New York Mets have been asked to assume the position.

Previous: ARI | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYY | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WAS

Even though they lost the World Series in five games, the 2015 season was a smashing success for the Mets. The club was mired in mediocrity from 2010-14 -- they won between 74-79 games all five seasons -- and they had not been to the postseason since Adam Wainwright froze Carlos Beltran with one of the nastiest curveballs you'll ever see.

Over the last few seasons GM Sandy Alderson has accumulated prospects and navigated payroll pitfalls to build a promising core, one heavy on power pitchers. It all paid off last year, as the Mets went 90-72, won the NL East by seven games, knocked off the Clayton Kershaw/Zack Greinke led Dodgers in the NLDS, then swept the 97-win Cubs in the NLCS.

The World Series loss was tough, especially with the way Game 5 went down. There's no doubt about it. The 2015 season was not a fluke though. The Mets have a nice blend of young stars and productive veterans, and they are very much a World Series contender in 2016. Last year was only the start for this club. Let's preview their upcoming season.

Syndergaard (l.), Harvey (m.), and deGrom give the Mets title hopes in 2016. (USATSI)

The Lineup

As always, each team's batting order is subject to change throughout the season, and the Mets are no exception. Consider this our best guess at manager Terry Collins' regular starting lineup:

I'm not going to lie, I did not expect the Mets to re-sign Cespedes. Over the last few years ownership has run a tight ship and kept payroll in the bottom third of the league, and Cespedes figured to require a nine-figure commitment. There was no reason to expect the Mets to go that far.

As it turned out, they didn't have to. The outfield market dragged this offseason -- Alex Gordon and Justin Upton didn't sign until after New Years -- and come late January, Cespedes was running low on suitors. The Nationals were after him, offering $100+ million but with heavy deferrals, but he instead took a three-year, $75 million deal from the Mets. The contract includes an opt-out after 2016.

Getting Cespedes back on such a favorable contract is a huge coup for the Mets. He performed at an MVP pace after coming over at the trade deadline, and while I'm not sure you can expect him to repeat that kind of performance in 2016, having him for a full season makes this club much more dangerous.

Remember, only the Phillies (308) and White Sox (292) scored fewer runs than the Mets (310) in the first half last year. Then, in the second half, only the Blue Jays (405) and Rangers (381) scored more runs than the Mets (373). This was their starting lineup as late as July 23:

Yeesh. Going from that lineup in late July to having a top three offense in the second half represents a drastic turnaround.

Of course, it was not all Cespedes. The Mets also called up Conforto, their stud outfield prospect, in late July, so they're going to have a full season of him as well. Wright (back) and d'Arnaud (elbow) missed a bunch time in the first half as well. New York upgraded four lineup spots in the second half and only had to make one trade.

This offseason the Mets did lose postseason hero (and goat) Daniel Murphy to the Nationals, though they adequately replaced him with Walker. Walker and Murphy have different styles -- Murphy's an extreme contact hitter, Walker has more power -- but they're both rock solid. If anything, the Mets upgraded at second base because Walker is so much sure-handed than Murphy.

Shortstop has been a gaping hole for the Mets since Jose Reyes left as a free agent a few years ago. From 2012-15, the post-Reyes years, the Mets received only 7.7 WAR from their shortstops, ranking 21st out of the 30 teams. Cabrera, who has been nursing a knee injury is camp, is an upgrade over what the club has been running out there the last few years.

The Mets are going to have to manage Wright's spinal stenosis all season, meaning cult hero Wilmer Flores will see plenty of playing time at third base. Alejandro De Aza (assuming he isn't traded) and Juan Lagares will be the backup outfielders, and Alderson favorite Eric Campbell figures to hold down the other backup infield job. The latest chatter has Johnny Monell serving as the backup catcher with Kevin Plawecki playing everday in Triple-A.

Even accounting for Wright's back and Cespedes' likely step back from Superman level, the Mets have a far deeper lineup heading into 2016 than they had heading into 2015. It's not even close. The Mets do lack team speed -- ZiPS does not project any regular to steal more than eight bases in 2016 -- but they make up for it with power. They can do damage one through nine eight.

As for the defense, well that might be a little questionable. With Lagares on the bench, their best defensive regular is probably Wright, and he has his back problems. Cespedes is a left fielder playing center, and the rest of the team is loaded with average defenders at best. If the Mets have a weakness, it's their defense. Good thing their pitching staff piles up strikeouts, eh?

The Rotation

Oh goodness, the rotation. As improved as the offense is, the starting rotation is the lifeblood of the Mets. If it's not the best rotation in baseball, then it's definitely the best collection of young power arms in the game. Look at this fivesome:

Colon sticks out like a sore thumb, though his stint in the rotation will only be temporary if things go according to plan. Zack Wheeler, another young power arm, is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is expected back in midseason. In a perfect world Wheeler returns and Colon shifts to the bullpen, where he was quite excellent last postseason.

Harvey and deGrom are bonafide aces -- deGrom's wife is expecting the couple's first child in early April, which is why he's slated to start the third game of the season and not the second -- and Syndergaard pitched at that level after being called up in mid May. There isn't another team in baseball with three elite level pitchers. We're potentially talking three top 10-15 pitchers in MLB in 2016.

Because Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard aren't enough, the Mets also have Matz, one of the very best pitching prospects in the game. (He is still Rookie of the Year eligible in 2016.) Matz had a 2.68 ERA in 50 1/3 innings last year, including the postseason. Including Wheeler, deGrom is the oldest of the team's five stud starters at 27, and they're all under team control through at least 2018.

There is very little reason to believe the Mets won't have one of the very best rotations in baseball this season, if not the best. But, for the sake of being different, let's play devil's advocate and look at some reasons why the Mets' rotation might not live up to expectations. After all, it was only a year ago we were talking about the Nationals having one of the best rotations ever, right?

First and foremost, Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard all threw way more innings in 2015 than they ever had before -- Syndergaard eclipsed his previous career high by 65 2/3 innings (!) -- and there could be a hangover effect in 2016. In fact, deGrom is missing some velocity in spring training.

deGrom’s velocity 91-93 today, not much different from last time out. Could mean something. Could mean nothing. It’s spring, after all.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) March 21, 2016

Secondly, as entertaining as Colon is on the field, he's a below-average pitcher. He had a 4.16 ERA (89 ERA+) in 2015 and has a 4.13 ERA (86 ERA+) in two years what the Mets. Colon turns 43 in May. Third, Matz has a scary injury history. He missed three years in the minors due to Tommy John surgery and subsequent setbacks, and last year a lat strain sidelined him for two months.

And fourth, counting on Wheeler to come back and have an instant impact following Tommy John surgery is dubious. Lots of guys return from elbow reconstruction and need some time to get all the way back. Wheeler had a 97 ERA+ in 2014 as well, his last full healthy season. Going from a 97 ERA+ one year to Tommy John surgery the next to impact pitcher the next is not a common path.

Now, all that said, I fully expect the Mets to have a dynamite rotation in 2016. Wheeler coming back will give them a chance to use a six-man rotation on occasion to give their starters extra rest -- Logan Verrett and Rafael Montero are quality depth arms who could be part of a six-man rotation even before Wheeler returns -- and aside from Colon, these guys are all young and built like horses.

You could nitpick all you want. The fact of the matter is the Mets have the best collection of power arms in baseball, and these guys are going to run roughshod over the National League. It's easy to stop losing streaks and extend winning streaks when you have a starting staff this electric.

The Bullpen

Do you remember who got the save for the Mets on Opening Day last year? It was Buddy Carlyle. He closed out the win because Jenrry Mejia, who started the season as closer, was unavailable due to an elbow issue. Times have changed. Carlyle was released a few days ago and Mejia was recently banned for life after failing his third performance-enhancing drug test in the span of 10 months.

Alderson spent some capital -- both money and prospects -- to beef up his relief corps since last March. Here is the bullpen Collins will likely have at his disposal on Opening Day:

Closer: RHP Jeurys Familia
Setup: RHP Addison Reed, LHP Antonio Bastardo
Middle: LHP Jerry Blevins, RHP Hansel Robles, RHP Jim Henderson
Long: LHP Sean Gilmartin

Familia was tremendous last season. He was outstanding as a setup man in 2014, but he took his game to another level in 2015, saving 43 games with a 1.85 ERA (200 ERA+) and 86 strikeouts in 78 innings. Familia throws hard and has a power slider, and by the end of the season, he added a splitter PitchFX says averaged 93.4 mph. Look at this thing:

That's absurd. The guy was already throwing 98 with a 90 mph slider, then he adds that? Familia has video game stuff. It is absolutely stunning he blew three saves in the World Series last year. (To be fair, Murphy's defense was to blame for one blown save, and twice Familia entered the game with the tying run already in scoring position.)

Reed lost his closer's job with the Diamondbacks last year but had a successful run as a setup man with the Mets, allowing only two runs in 15 1/3 innings. He seemed to add the famed "Warthen Slider" after coming over, which is why he went from 7.5 K/9 with Arizona to 10.0 K/9 with the Mets.

(The "Warthen Slider" is a slider taught by Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen. It's thrown very hard, usually around 90 mph, and it has sharp late break, almost like a cutter. Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Familia all picked up the Warthen Slider after reaching MLB, which is why they've all outperformed expectations. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs has done some great work on the Warthen Slider.)

Bastardo and Blevins give Collins two reliable left-handed options for those tough NL East lefties like Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman. Robles struck out 61 batters in 54 innings last year and could emerge as a setup option of Reed falters. Henderson is returning from shoulder surgery and has looked great at times this spring, and very bad at others.

Beyond the presumed Opening Day bullpen arms, the Mets have nice depth in righty Erik Goeddel and lefty Josh Smoker. Goeddel had a 2.43 ERA (153 ERA+) with 34 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings last year. Smoker signed out of an independent league last offseason and had a 3.49 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 49 minor league innings. Verrett and Montero could factor into the bullpen equation as well.

The bullpen is not as good as the rotation -- how could it be? -- though the Mets have a solid relief crew heading into the new season. I firmly believe Familia is a championship level closer (last year's World Series results notwithstanding), and the rest of the bullpen features all sorts of different looks. This bullpen is certainly better than relying on Carlyle and Mejia.

The Outlook

The Mets are absolutely a World Series contender for the 2016 season. They have a strong lineup, a dynamite rotation, a solid bullpen, and depth. And if they need help at the deadline, Alderson still has tradeable pieces in Montero, shortstop prospects Amed Rosario and Gavin Cecchini, and outfield prospects Brandon Nimmo and Wuilmer Becerra, among others. Even Wheeler too. Remember, he was part of the failed Carlos Gomez trade last July.

Our SportsLine projections have the Mets going 92-70 in 2016, which is actually behind the Nationals (94-68) but good enough for a Wild Card spot. I'm more bullish on the Mets and think they are the best team in the NL East at the moment. They were the best team last year and now they're going to have full seasons of Syndergaard, Cespedes, and Conforto.

The young rotation ensures the Mets will be a threat for years to come, but their very best chance to win a championship is right now. The rotation is cheap -- it'll start getting really expensive next year, when deGrom and Wheeler join Harvey in arbitration -- and they have Cespedes signed to team friendly terms. Also, veterans like Granderson and Wright are productive now, but won't be forever.

Alderson did the smart thing last season by going for it and getting the help his team needed at the trade deadline. He would be wise to do the same this year. The Mets have a truly special rotation and they're a very dangerous club. You do not want to face those starters in a short postseason series.

Coming Tuesday: The defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals, the final entry in our season preview series.