Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for June 12: Ben Rice among best bets for Thursday HR player props
SportsLine's model is up 41.95 units on HR picks in the last 65 days. Use its MLB picks for MLB sportsbook promotions like MLB boosts
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4 min read
The New York Yankees have scored at least six runs in five straight games, averaging 7.8 over that span. Despite Ben Rice ranking third on the team in home runs (12), he hasn't gone deep in any of those contests. Rice, who was a surprising breakout at the start of the 2025 MLB season, only has one home run in June, but Thursday appears to be a matchup where that could change. Rice, a lefthanded hitter, faces a righthanded pitcher, Royals starting Seth Lugo, who has allowed five home runs over his last three starts. Rice has eight of his 12 home runs against righties this season as his home run slump has increased his MLB home run odds to make him a top value for Thursday home runs bets in MLB player props.
The latest MLB odds from bet365 list Rice at +525 to go yard, one of the best values in our MLB home run picks for online sports betting. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 41.95 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 65 days after hitting two MLB home run props yesterday. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Plus, check out our free MLB player props, free MLB parlay for Thursday, and Rangers vs. Twins picks for Thursday's matinee..
Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, June 12:
- Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+475)
- Ben Rice, Yankees (+525)
- Carlos Correa, Twins (+575)
- Parlay these picks for +24157 odds at Bet365 (odds subject to change)
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+475)
Torkelson leads Detroit with 16 home runs this season after going yard against Baltimore in the series opener on Tuesday. He is on a five-game hitting streak with two homers during that stretch, showcasing the power that made him the top overall pick several years ago. The 25-year-old has a favorable matchup against a starting pitcher who allowed five earned runs in his most recent start.
"After allowing 10 home runs in his first 9 starts of the season, Dean Kremer hasn't allowed a HR in his last 4 starts, but he is giving up 7.5 hits/game over those last 4 starts," SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. "We expect regression to kick in terms of some of those hits allowed being HRs." The model sets Torkelson's line at +410 to hit a homer on Thursday. BetMGM joins bet365 with the best price for this prop.
Ben Rice, Yankees (+525)
New York has faced three left-handed starting pitchers in its last four games, but Rice gets to face a righty on Thursday. Eight of his 12 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers, and seven of his homers have come on the road. He has a .265 batting average and a .909 OPS on the road this season, so Thursday's road game against Kansas City is a favorable spot for him.
"Royals' SP Seth Lugo has given up 5 HRs over his last three starts. Lugo has struggled against left-handed hitters, who are are hitting .266 against him and have him 9 of the 12 HRs that he has allowed," Fetner said. bet365 has the best price for this HR prop as well.
Carlos Correa, Twins (+575)
Correa has been successful against left-handed pitchers this season, batting .316 with four home runs in 38 at-bats. He has just one homer in nearly five times as many at-bats against right-handed pitchers, so oddsmakers are not properly accounting for that disparity. The model sets the line at +380 for Correa to homer on Thursday afternoon, providing plenty of value at this price.
"Patrick Corbin has been one of the lone bright spots for the Rangers as of late, but he still has a high HR/9 rate and is much worse against right-handed batters than left-handed batters," Fetner said. "Correa is just 2-9 in his career against Corbin, but he has 4 walks to 2 strikeouts against him. This is a good indication that Correa sees the ball well out of Corbin's hand." bet365 and BetMGM once again have the best number for Correa, and you can use a bet365 bonus code to get free bets or a first bet safety net.
Where to bet MLB props on Thursday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Thursday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets | CBSDYW | |
BetMGM | ||
Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets | No code required | |
bet365 promo code | Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose | CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Thursday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Matt Severance, who is on a 153-79 roll (+2171) on baseball picks. SportsLine's Larry Hartstein is also 12-3-2 (+865) over his last 17 MLB prop picks, and he already has locked in picks for Thursday.
