NFL: London Games-Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirby Lee

Entering Week 16, only two NFL teams had clinched a playoff berth. After Week 16, that number is up to 10. From statement wins to devastating losses, it was a massive week across the league. The Detroit Lions' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday officially sent the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers to the postseason. Then, the Indianapolis Colts' loss to the 49ers on Monday clinched playoff berths for the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers.

Add in the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots also clinching and there are only four spots left in the playoff bracket.

In total, 14 teams will have a chance for a Super Bowl, but really we can probably dismiss several of them already. With Christmas just two days away, we're determining which of the playoff teams and projected playoff teams are naughty (not legitimate Super Bowl contenders) and which ones are nice (capable of getting the greatest gift of all -- the Lombardi Trophy).

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (12-3, clinched playoff berth)

Though the Bo Nix experience can be a bit of a roller-coaster ride, teams don't win 11 straight games by accident. The Broncos own wins over the Eagles, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs (with Patrick Mahomes). Nix showed just how good he can be in the win over the Packers, and the defense can be as dangerous as any in the league with the NFL's most sacks and a talented defense led by Patrick Surtain II.

Verdict: Nice

2. New England Patriots (12-3, clinched playoff berth)

When a young quarterback arrives as a superstar, it generally means good news for a team's playoff chances. Drake Maye showed that he can put the team on his back in the playoff-clinching win over the Baltimore Ravens. So, even though the Patriots have significant issues running the ball and stopping the run, New England gets the benefit of the doubt here.

Verdict: Nice

Drake Maye leads first career fourth-quarter comeback, shows how far he can carry playoff-bound Patriots
Zachary Pereles
Drake Maye leads first career fourth-quarter comeback, shows how far he can carry playoff-bound Patriots

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, clinched playoff berth)

It might have been easy to dismiss the Jaguars as "naughty" just a few weeks ago. That's not the case now. The Jaguars have won seven straight games, and Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football, accounting for 10 total touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past two games. Jacksonville cemented its contender status with a road win over the Broncos.

Verdict: Nice

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6; 91% chance to make playoffs, per SportsLine)

Pittsburgh has reeled off three straight wins to take control of the AFC North; it only needs one more win, or one more Baltimore loss, to clinch the division. Aaron Rodgers has settled in and, just as importantly, the defense has made big strides. Here's where the good news ends, though: Pittsburgh is 1-5 against teams that are currently slated to make the playoffs. Though this team could perhaps get the franchise's first playoff win since 2017, it's hard to see the ceiling being much higher than that.

Verdict: Naughty

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, clinched playoff berth)

Seemingly lost amid the rising AFC teams, Los Angeles has won four straight and 7 of 8. Justin Herbert has played at a high level in many of the Chargers' biggest wins and continues to be among the NFL's most talented and toughest quarterbacks. The defense is one of the best against the pass. There are plenty of holes on this roster -- offensive line especially -- but there's little reason to doubt that the Chargers have a shot.

Verdict: Nice

6. Buffalo Bills (11-4, clinched playoff berth)

The Bills are a mess defensively, and their receiver play leaves a lot to be desired. Josh Allen has shown over and over again that he can overcome it all, though, and Buffalo also has James Cook leading a tremendous rushing attack. When you have a quarterback, you have a chance. It's as simple as that.

Verdict: Nice

7. Houston Texans (11-4; 98% chance to make playoffs, per SportsLine)

The Texans' defense is very, very nice. Houston is allowing the fewest points and yards this season. The offense is another story: Houston is 19th in points and yards. We won't go quite as far as to call it "naughty," but it's certainly not up to par with what we would normally consider a contender. The Texans are averaging 23.1 points per game. Since 2009, only two Super Bowl winners have averaged fewer: the 2023 Chiefs and 2015 Broncos. We could see the Texans, who own the NFL's longest active winning streak at seven games, playing the role of the latter.

Verdict: Nice

Though that may seem like a lot of "nice" designations, it's simply reflective of the general consensus around the AFC. It's a wide-open race. Six teams have odds between +300 and +750 to make the Super Bowl, per DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers (+1400) are the only team of the seven above outside that range.

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3, clinched playoff berth)

Seattle is in the driver's seat for the NFC West title and conference's No. 1 seed, though a Week 18 matchup with the 49ers looms large. Still, the Seahawks got a stunning and impressive comeback win over the Rams to take the lead in the conference. Sam Darnold's play can be shaky at times, but he came up big in Week 18, and this defense is among the league's best.

Verdict: Nice

2. Chicago Bears (11-4, clinched playoff berth)

The Bears are the NFL's feel-good story, one with a team-of-destiny feel. Chicago has six wins this season when it trailed in the final two minutes -- most in a single season in NFL history. The running game is a machine, Caleb Williams has been incredible in winning moments and the defense forces a ton of turnovers. Optimists will call it clutch; pessimists will call it lucky. Is it enough? Not quite. The Bears have the feel of last year's Washington Commanders: breakout quarterback, strong running game, opportunistic defense and lots of last-minute wins. Those Commanders won two games before getting throttled in the NFC Championship.

Verdict: Naughty

3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, clinched playoff berth)

The Eagles seem to have rebounded from a midseason dip with consecutive decisive wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington -- hardly the two toughest teams, but important wins for Philadelphia nonetheless. These Eagles have been here before. The reigning Super Bowl champs will put up an honorable defense. But the offense -- especially the running game -- has been underwhelming, and the rushing defense has major issues.

Verdict: Naughty

4. Carolina Panthers (8-7; 54% chance to make playoffs, per SportsLine)

Carolina pulled into the NFC South lead with two weeks to go, but it will likely need a win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth. The Panthers have followed a similar script to the Bears this year, just to a less impressive extent: Carolina has been outscored by 50 points but has a winning record thanks to seven wins in one-possession games. Bryce Young has been clutch, and the running game is hard to stop when it gets going. Still, Young is too inconsistent, as is the defense.

Verdict: Naughty

5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4, clinched playoff berth)

If the 49ers can get past the Bears in Week 17, they will have a chance to play for the No. 1 seed in Week 18 against the Seahawks. The offense has been on fire of late, helping cover for a defense that has slipped to bottom 10 due to injuries. This is truly a team that could fall into either category, especially considering how one Brock Purdy stinker would spell doom -- and he has had more than a few of those. Still, Kyle Shanahan plus Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and potential home-field advantage is a good recipe.

Verdict: Nice

6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4, clinched playoff berth)

The Rams have the NFL's top offense and fifth-best defense when using expected points added. They also have the league's worst special teams, and they've blown a lot of late leads thanks to miscues with that unit and short-yardage struggles. That's a long way of saying this team is still the deserved Super Bowl favorite if it just finds ways to execute in two seemingly minor (but actually significant) areas. Matthew Stafford is the likely MVP. Even as the No. 6 seed, this is an easy one.

Verdict: Nice

7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1; 95% chance to make playoffs, per SportsLine)

We're going to find out a lot about the Packers in the next two weeks. Green Bay looked to be a top-tier contender just two weeks ago. Then it blew a second-half lead at the Broncos and saw Micah Parsons suffer a torn ACL in Week 15. In Week 16, the Packers blew an even later lead in a loss to the Bears, and Jordan Love got concussed. The Packers finish with the Ravens and the Minnesota Vikings. There is still time to get back on track, but this is no longer the overwhelmingly talented bunch that we saw at its peak. There's still a chance because Love can catch fire, but things aren't as sparkly as they once were.

Verdict: Nice