Drew Brees is running away with league MVP as the Saints destroy every team in their path, but Patrick Mahomes has a chance to make up some ground on Sunday when the Chiefs head to Oakland to take on the Raiders. 

After 12 weeks, Brees is CBS Sports' unanimous choice for league MVP while Mahomes is our unanimous runner-up. With only five weeks remaining, Mahomes appears to be the only player capable of catching Brees, but considering the gap between them already, Mahomes will need to close out the season on an absolute tear to defeat Brees, who hasn't been willing to let Mahomes back into the race on his own.

It's a good thing then that Mahomes will face the Raiders on Sunday and again in Week 17. The Raiders will give Mahomes a chance to erase the lead that Brees has built, because that's how bad the Raiders have been and will continue to be for the remainder of the season. The Raiders present an opportunity for Mahomes to put up historic single-game stat lines that could change the MVP race.

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Through 12 weeks, the Raiders defense ranks 26th in yards allowed per game (390), 30th in points allowed per game (29.7), and 29th in DVOA. They can't apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks evident by their league low 10 sacks. They can't stop the run. They're surrendering the fifth-most yards per carry (4.9). They can't stop the pass. They're allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt, the highest figure in football. All of this is just a long-winded way of saying, the Raiders are a terrible team, especially so on defense, and the Chiefs are going to carve them up. 

The Chiefs have dropped two games this season, but they haven't been stopped offensively. They're the league's third-best offense in terms of yardage (434.3 per game), second-best offense in terms of points (36.7 per game), and the best offense in terms of DVOA. It's rare to find a mismatch of this proportion during the course of a season, but we'll be treated to it twice down the stretch. And it's just what Mahomes needs to catch Brees.

If Mahomes is going to make the MVP race interesting, he'll need to submit the kinds of performances that had him out in front of Brees earlier this season. In Mahomes' first four games, he threw 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions while averaging 300 yards per game. In the seven games since, he's thrown 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while averaging 346.9 yards per game. It's the interceptions that have doomed him. In a normal year, those numbers would've established him as the clear MVP frontrunner. After all, he's on pace to finish with nearly 54 touchdown passes and 5,277 passing yards. But this isn't a normal year. Brees has thrown only two interceptions this season to go along with his 29 touchdowns. 

Mahomes himself seems to understand that he needs to cut down on the giveaways down the stretch.

"You have to know when to take the chances and when not to," Mahomes told USA Today. "I have to make those tight-window throws and trying to make those plays is the reason I have had success. But at the same time, it's the reason I've had turnovers as well. I just try to learn from every mistake that I make so that I never make them again."

Luckily for Mahomes, two games against the Raiders (assuming he plays in Week 17) await him. It's the exact kind of matchup he needs to improve an already gaudy stat line. With all this in mind, it should come as no surprise to hear that I'm taking the Chiefs to win big over the Raiders with the first of my five weekly best bets.

Last week: 3-2
This year: 36-23-1

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Footage via E! / GIF via The Ringer

All odds via SportsLine 

Chiefs (-15) at Raiders

Taking a team to win a road game by more than two touchdowns isn't easy, but we don't often get a mismatch quite like this. The Chiefs aren't just one of the best teams in football going up against one of the worst teams in football. They're also coming off a bye with Andy Reid.

Take it away, Kostos:

The Chiefs are 8-2-1 against the spread this season. I've picked them nearly every week. Fifteen points on the road won't scare me away from them. The Raiders, on the other hand, are coming off a long trip to Baltimore where they lost their ninth game of the season. More than half of their losses have come by more than 14 points. They're 2-7 now against the spread as an underdog. And they've yet to face the Chiefs. 

By DVOA, this is a matchup between the league's best team and the league's second-worst team. I have no earthly idea how they'll stop Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. And I fully expect the Chiefs' pass rushers to bother Derek Carr enough over the course of the game.

Saints (-7) at Cowboys

Thursday night's have been brutal for me, but I'm giving it one final shot here by taking the Saints to throttle the Cowboys on the road. The Cowboys have improved significantly since the acquisition of Amari Cooper, who has vaulted them to the top of the NFC East, but there's a difference between beating teams like the Redskins, Falcons, and Eagles and hanging with a Saints team that looks like the best team in football by a decent margin.

The Saints have won 10 straight games. They've won their past three games by an average margin of 30.7 points. They're 9-2 against the spread, including 9-0 after Week 2. By DVOA, they're the third-best team. The Cowboys slot in at 21st by DVOA even after their three-game winning run.

The Cowboys will likely try to keep the ball away from the Saints by featuring Ezekiel Elliott, but once the Saints break away, the Cowboys won't be able to keep pace with them. The only way I see the Cowboys hanging with the Saints is if they generate a few takeaways, but the Saints have turned the ball over only nine times (tied for the fewest in football). Don't count on it.

Result: Well, my run of bad luck on Thursday's continues. Cowboys 13, Saints 10

Bears (-4.5) at Giants

There's a ton of uncertainty surrounding this game due to Mitchell Trubisky's shoulder injury, but even if the Bears are forced to start Chase Daniel for a second straight week, they should be able to handle a very bad Giants team. Based on what he did a week ago against the Lions, Daniel is serviceable. So long as he can avoid turnovers and hit the majority of the openings that Matt Nagy schemes open week after week, the Bears' offense should be able to do its job.

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But really, the Bears will win this game by at least five points because of their defense. The Giants aren't going to be able to contain the Bears' defensive front, which is spearheaded by fringe MVP candidate Khalil Mack. The Giants have the 26th-ranked offensive line in terms of pass protection, per Football Outsiders' metrics. The Bears' defense is sixth in the NFL with 34 sacks. The Giants have the 26th-ranked offensive line in terms of run blocking, per Football Outsiders' metrics. The Bears' defense is allowing a league-best 3.6 yards per carry. While Saquon Barkley has been remarkable, he's often being asked to shed tacklers and create huge plays out of nothing. He might not be able to do that against a Bears defense that has been exceptionally disciplined.

If Trubisky doesn't play, the Bears defense should lead them to a comfortable win. If Trubisky does play, this might be a blowout.

Seahawks (-10) vs. 49ers

I've been writing for a while now that the Seahawks are a pretty dang good football team. They've certainly looked like one in recent weeks with wins over the Panthers and Packers and close losses to the Chargers and Rams. It's safe to say the 49ers are not like any of those teams named in the previous sentence. They're trotting out Nick Mullens at quarterback. A week ago, they went on the road and lost to the Buccaneers by 18 points. Seattle will be an even more hostile environment for Mullens and the 49ers.

Seahawks win big at home against an inferior team lacking an NFL-caliber quarterback. 

Browns (+6) at Texans

Haven't you heard? The Browns are America's new team. They're not just fun. They also might be kinda good. At the very least, they're competitive. Since Hue Jackson got fired, Baker Mayfield has gone 65 of 88 (73.9 percent) for 771 yards (8.8 YPA), nine touchdowns, one pick, two sacks, and a 129.5 passer rating. The Browns have also won two straight games for the first time since 2014. 

The Texans are on an improbable eight-game winning streak and I think they'll push it to nine on Sunday, but Mayfield is dangerous enough to keep the margin of defeat down to around a field goal. Texans win, but Browns cover.