What a delightful slate of Thanksgiving games we got on Thursday. The best part? Recording a Turkey Day recap podcast immediately after. You should subscribe to the pod if you haven't already -- we have eight shows a week and don't take holidays off! Plus, you'll learn all kinds of crazy information, such as the cat-related nugget John Breech dropped on Thursday night. 

As it turns out, ever since the black cat ran on the field during the Giants-Cowboys game on Monday night in Week 9, teams with cat mascots are WINLESS. That's a combined record of 0-12 since the curse took effect. We're going into our fourth week of cat mascot NFL teams failing to win games. It's quite bizarre.

Week 10: Bears 20, Lions 13; Ravens 49, Bengals 13; Packers 24, Panthers 16 -- (0-3)
Week 11: Falcons 29, Panthers 3; Cowboys 35, Lions 27; Colts 33, Jaguars 13; Raiders 17, Bengals 10 -- (0-4)
Week 12: Steelers 16, Bengals 10; Saints 34, Panthers 31; Redskins 19, Lions 16; Titans 42, Jaguars 20 -- (0-4)
Week 13: Bears 24, Lions 20 (0-1)

Good luck this weekend, Panthers, Jaguars and Bengals! What's wild about these games is not all of them were obvious losses. The Panthers had a chip shot to beat the Saints. The Redskins had to win for this to happen. For more facts like that make sure and subscribe. You can also fire up the player below to get plus tons of picks against the spread from our Friday show. We finally hit TWO PARLAYS last week and we're about to get a second one this week. Check those out below. 

49ers +6 at Ravens

Everyone and their brother is going to be betting on the Ravens in this spot, with Lamar Jackson taking control of the MVP race and appearing not to look back. Here's my thing though: the 49ers are a really good football team too. I can't back the idea they should be a six-point dog, even on the road against the Ravens with an east coast early start time. The Rams were obliterated by the Ravens, but it could have been a better matchup if a) Aaron Donald didn't get eradicated and b) the Rams could run the ball effectively. You can't wipe out the 49ers by taking out one player, because the defensive line is too deep and the 49ers will be effective in the run game. They also have a better quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, which is not something I expected to say this time a year ago. If the weather is bad -- and it looks like it will be all over the east coast on Sunday -- I think that favors the 49ers a little bit. It could force Lamar into running the ball more and not being as efficient passing the ball, which leads to the 49ers being able to stack the box more. I basically just want to get in front of a freight train with a little bit of value on my side. 

Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 13 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine now to see their Week 13 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.

Buccaneers -1 at Jaguars

I'll talk more about the weather below in a very weird "best bet" breakdown that I don't really love, but the Buccaneers were one of my favorite bets of the week the second the lines dropped. Tampa Bay continues to play a motivated brand of football and Bruce Arians is fully checked in and motivated to pile up wins and justify bringing everyone back in 2019. Every win is enormous for Tampa Bay's coaching staff, front office and Jameis Winston's future. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are coming off a brutal beatdown in Nashville against the Titans, where Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill eviscerated them. Teams giving up 100 yards to Derrick Henry since he entered the NFL are 1-5 straight up the following week, which feels a little like a "steal their soul" factor. Additionally, the weather in this game looks like it could be extremely sloppy, which is chasing me off the over of 48.5. But a ton of rain and wind would, surprisingly, play into the Buccaneers in this game. With Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea on the interior, the Bucs have established themselves as one of the best run defense teams in football. The Jaguars have Leonard Fournette, but I don't think they'll be able to move the ball effectively on the ground. Tampa Bay doesn't have a great run offense, but Ronald Jones has been better and this is a favorable matchup. If the Jaguars are checked out on a 4-7 season at all, Tampa could roll in this one. A comeback in bad weather would be extremely difficult, and if Tampa can get a lead, the Jags might pack it in. 

Browns -2 at Steelers

Another short road favorite as the Browns and Steelers get set for a revenge game. I jumped on this at -1 and should have grabbed it as a pick 'em when it opened. No Mason Rudolph is annoying, because he's worse (I think) than Devlin Hodges. I guess I'm a little worried this is an obvious public play. However, more money is on the Browns, even though people are loaded up on them here. Yes, the Steelers should be motivated to beat the Browns and get revenge. I get that. But there's no Maurkice Pouncey in this game due to suspension. That's a big problem for a young quarterback in a sloppy game with some questionable weather. Getting JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner back is huge, but the Steelers aren't going to be aggressively pushing the ball down the field either way. Cleveland's defense is still good without Myles Garrett and the Browns' offense is worlds better. Cleveland knows it needs to win out if it wants a shot at the playoffs and this game is an absolute must-win. The Browns are finding their stride and are about to take off on a nice little run that starts Sunday in Pittsburgh.

Jets -3.5 at Bengals

Full disclosure: I took this before it was announced the Bengals were going back from Ryan Finley to Andy Dalton. And I definitely think Dalton is worth more than a half point over Finley. So I'm surprised it moved this much. It's also very annoying to have the whole team rallying around Dalton with nice tweets being sent out. However, let's make a couple of things clear here. One, the Bengals are still terrible. People (aka John Breech) are trying to suggest Cincy benched the QB too soon because they need him to win games. Well, uh, the Bengals were 0-8 when Dalton was benched. It's not like they were on a roll or anything. TBD on whether A.J. Green plays here -- I could see him going, but Bryant McFadden said on the Pick Six Podcast there's no chance Green suits up, likely for the rest of the season. It makes sense, given he's a free agent. The Bengals will need to run to win, but the Jets snuff out the run. Le'Veon Bell has been itching for a big game and the Bengals do not stop the run. Sam Darnold has been dealing and I don't expect that to stop in this game. The one big issue might be the weather, with heavy winds and rain potentially set to cause some problems, but that should affect both teams. The Jets are the better squad. We'd like Finley here but we'll take Dalton. Try to get -3 if you can. 

Chiefs -9.5 vs. Raiders

ANDY REID, OFF THE BYE! ANDY REID, OFF THE BYE! The Cowboys may have killed my moneyline parlay, but I'm still going to get involved with the Chiefs this week, because they're just capable of destroying the Raiders in this spot. Reid hasn't been as impressive off the bye since coming to Kansas City, going just 3-3 in post-bye games since taking over the Chiefs. You know what's crazy, though? Reid has been on the road in every single one of those games. This is his first home bye game since 2012! The point is, Andy Reid has two weeks to prepare for a divisional opponent at home. He's 26-13 ATS in the AFC West since 2013. Reid is just 3-4 against the spread as a double digit favorite at home since 2013, which is a little concerning. But maybe the most important thing here is Derek Carr's struggles in cold weather. He's 0-4 in those games with a significantly depressed stat line when the temperature is below 40 degrees. 

The Raiders could be a problem for the Chiefs with their run game, but if Kansas City can score early -- and they should be able to -- then you'll see Oakland become one-dimensional and struggle to get vertical with the ball. I don't see Reid letting his foot off the gas in what amounts to an AFC West championship game against his old buddy Jon Gruden. 

Vikings-Seahawks Over 49

These teams are considered conservative defensive teams, right? Well, they're not. Actually both Pete Carroll and Mike Zimmer might prefer being conservative, and that could be an issue for the over in this one, but both Minnesota and Seattle have struggled to slow down opponents' passing attacks this season. The Vikings are a top-10 defense by DVOA, but they're just 16th against the pass. Seattle has played much better in recent weeks but they are just 16th overall in DVOA. Dalvin Cook should be able to have his way on the ground and in the air against the Seahawks. Russell Wilson, now armed with Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Josh Gordon, should have plenty of vertical shots available to him against a Vikings secondary that has struggled. People think Kirk Cousins will fade here because it's prime time, but he's proven people wrong this season on a big stage and I think he can take down Russell, the way he did with Michigan State over Wisconsin back in 2012. Either way I see a ton of points coming. This line is already up to 50 (-115) as of Friday morning, so I would go ahead and jump on it. I think it could close above 51. One stat, via some podcast listeners, to concern you: Clete Blakeman is reffing this game and he is now 10/10 to the under in games he's reffed this year. If you like the under and want to ride that angle, let it keep going up and jump on it Sunday night or Monday morning maybe. Primetime overs typically keep climbing.

Buccaneers-Jaguars Over 48.5

OK so starting to get a little nervous about this pick I made on the podcast. I would not take the over in this game right now until I saw what the deal was with the weather. I'm putting it here because I want to have full disclosure on it as a potential best bet that Pete Prisco holds me to regardless of the weather (he wants me to lose so he can catch me in the standings) but I would pass on this right now. 

Here's my theory on the over really quickly if the weather was good: Jacksonville ran Leonard Fournette a lot last week, so he won't be a squeaky wheel guy this week. Nick Foles should throw a ton against the Buccaneers, who serve as a pass funnel. The Buccaneers are not scared of chunking it around and putting up points. The Jaguars defense is not good. 

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE: Here's why I'm worried about this bet. There is a current forecast that basically calls for a huge storm to roll into Jacksonville at 1 p.m. ET, which will feature a ton of rain basically from noon until 8 p.m. ET and also feature 22 mph winds. 

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That is a TON of wind. Jameis has a strong arm, but 22 mph wind is going to create issues here. This will be a run it out, sloppy game between two Florida teams if the weather forecast holds. This will end up looking like an SEC game. 

If this forecast ends up holding, I'm going to probably bail on this as a best bet and actually look to the under instead. What I would do here, if you're inclined, is take the Tampa/Jacksonville under 48 and see what the number does. I think it could drop down to like 45 if there's a ton of bad weather in the forecast. In that case, you could potentially buy back on the over and give yourself a window to hit both or just let the under ride. 

Hold off on hitting the over, but I still like the Buccaneers a lot in this game. 

Season record

Week 12 best bets ATS record: 6-1, +5u
2019 best bets ATS record: 43-30-2, +13u

Pick Six Parlay of the Week

We finally hit one! The parlay came through! Wonderful. Love it. Feeling good, Lewis. Looking good, Billy Ray. Now let's go hit another one. This was initially going to be a four-game parlay, and we mentioned it on the podcast but I'm going to bump it down to a three-game parlay here because of the weather issues we mentioned above in Jacksonville. Instead we just have three sides that you can take together.

Cardinals +3
Chiefs -9.5
Patriots -3

.5u to win 2.5u

Season record: 1/12, 0u

Moneyline Parlay of the Week

Finally hit one of these too. It took a bunch of big favorites and a miracle situation in New Orleans, but we got there. Let's be a little more conservative with this one as well and get into the plus money for the season. We're not even going to use a dog here, just get teams we believe will win outright.

Buccaneers -135
Eagles -500
Chargers -170
Chiefs -500

.5u to win 1.49u
Season Record: 0/11, -0.38u