NFL Week 15: Chiefs on brink as playoff races tighten before Falcons-Bucs

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I never thought I'd write these words while Patrick Mahomes was still in the NFL, but here we are: The Kansas City Chiefs could be eliminated from playoff contention this week.

With the NFL season down to its final four weeks, we're devoting some time today to the playoff picture. Not only are we covering the elimination scenarios for the Chiefs, but we're also looking at the three teams that can CLINCH a postseason berth this week (no team has clinched yet). Plus, we have picks and best bets for tonight's Falcons-Buccaneers matchup.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown.

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Falcons at Buccaneers

At 7-6, the Buccaneers are currently tied atop the NFC South with the Panthers, and they can't really afford to slip up here against a Falcons team that has lost seven of its past eight games. The Falcons have already been eliminated from the playoff race, so they have nothing on the line, but they will certainly have the chance to play the role of spoiler if they can pull off an upset.

So can the Bucs avoid the upset?

Why the Falcons can win: The Falcons need to stop overthinking things and just give the ball to Bijan Robinson. The Falcons star running back has topped 140 total yards in five games this year, and Atlanta is 3-2 in those games (1-7 in all others). This matchup should make it easy to keep Robinson involved, mostly because the Buccaneers defense has given up 701 receiving yards to opposing running backs, the most in the NFL. Atlanta needs to ensure Robinson is a focal point in both the running and passing game.
Why the Buccaneers can win: With Baker Mayfield banged up, this is the perfect game for Tampa Bay to lean on its rushing attack. With Bucky Irving back, the Bucs are at full strength on the ground, and the Falcons haven't stopped the run well (131 rush yards allowed per game, bottom 10 in the league). Tampa Bay could also get Mike Evans back -- he's questionable after missing the past six games with a hamstring injury -- and if he's active, it's a major boost. In three full games this season, Evans has averaged 4.7 catches for 46.7 yards.

Jared Dubin has a full preview of the game, and you can check that out here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook):

ONE WR PROP I LIKE: Mike Evans OVER 3.5 receptions (+107): Not only is the number low, but we're also getting plus money. Dating back to last season, Evans has gone over 3.5 receptions in 10 of his past 11 games. The lone miss came when he injured his hamstring early in Week 4 and didn't return. If he's healthy and plays four quarters, he almost feels like a lock to hit four catches.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Zane Gonzalez OVER 7.5 points (+129): Gonzalez has played five games with the Falcons and has averaged 7.8 points. He's topped 7.5 in three of his past four. Since Kirk Cousins took over, the Falcons have had one of the worst red-zone offenses in the league, which typically means more field goal attempts.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 30-28 (13-14 on kicker props and 17-14 on all other props). And now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Pete Prisco's pick: Buccaneers 27-20 over Falcons
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Buccaneers 27-20 over Falcons
Jordan Dajani's pick: Buccaneers 27-20 over Falcons
Jared Dubin's pick: Buccaneers 24-13 over Falcons
My pick: Falcons 23-20 over Buccaneers

NOTE: I didn't mess that up -- Prisco, Sullivan and Dajani all picked the SAME FINAL SCORE. I just checked and you can actually bet on the Bucs winning 27-20. The odds are +9000, so a $10 bet would win you $900. I might have to do it and share none of the winnings with them.

We've got more picks for the game on our CBSSports.com predictions page.

Predicting the entire 2025 NFL playoff bracket and Super Bowl winner as we enter Week 15

John Breech

2. Chiefs could be eliminated from playoff contention this week: Here's how it could happen

The Chiefs have never missed the playoffs during Patrick Mahomes' career, but that run is in danger of ending and it could happen as soon as Sunday. At 6-7, Kansas City is on the cusp of playoff elimination.

Here are the three most plausible scenarios:

1. Chiefs loss (vs. Chargers) + Jaguars win (over Jets) + Bills win (over Patriots) + Texans win (over Cardinals). The Jaguars (-13.5) and Texans (-9.5) are huge favorites, and while the Bills opened as a favorite, they're now 1.5-point underdogs. If the Bills want any shot at winning the AFC East, they have to beat New England, so they'll be extra motivated. If Kansas City loses, this feels like the most realistic elimination path.

2. Chiefs loss + Jaguars win (over Jets) + Bills win (over Patriots) + Colts win (over Seahawks). The Colts just lost Daniel Jones for the season, and there's a good chance they're going to be starting Philip Rivers on Sunday, who just came out of retirement after four years away. The Colts are 13-point underdogs in Seattle, so for this scenario to happen, Indy would have to pull off a big upset.

3. Chiefs loss + Bills win (over Patriots) + Colts win (over Seahawks) + Texans win (over Cardinals). Like the second scenario, this also involves a 44-year-old Rivers leading the Colts to an upset over the Seahawks, which seems like a long shot.

If the Chiefs beat the Chargers on Sunday, there's no way they can be eliminated in Week 15. Although the Chiefs are on the cusp of elimination, they could also still make the playoffs.

3. NFL Week 15 picks: Patriots and Broncos both go down

New York Jets v New England Patriots — Getty Images

It's now time for everyone's favorite part of the newsletter, which is where I round up three NFL writers -- Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan -- and we try to impress you by nailing all of our picks. Last week, I thought the other three guys were getting a little too cocky, so I calmed them down by embarrassing them. I went 10-4 against the spread in Week 14, which was waaaaaaay ahead of Prisco, who went just 6-8 (Sullivan and Dajani finished in between us).

Anyway, you probably know how our predictions work by now: I'll give you one Week 15 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all of their Week 15 selections.

Pete Prisco -- Bills (-1.5) 30-28 over Patriots. "The Patriots are coming off a bye, while the Bills are coming off a come-from-behind victory over the Bengals. Josh Allen was Josh Allen in that one, and that's the way it has to be for the Bills to win. He wasn't the last time these teams met, which is why the Patriots won. This time will be different. Allen wins it with his usual big plays." Prisco's full Week 15 picks are here.
Tyler Sullivan -- Seahawks (-13.5) 30-16 over Colts. "If Philip Rivers gets the starting nod, Sunday will mark 1,800 days between starts. Of course, that's a lot of time, and expecting Rivers to somehow keep it close against a Seattle defense that ranks second in points allowed (17.4), yards per play allowed (4.5), and third-down rate (33%) seems too tall a task. As interesting as Rivers' comeback story is right now, it could be spoiled by halftime and downright sad by the fourth quarter." Sullivan's full Week 15 picks are here.
Jordan Dajani -- Bengals 35-33 over Ravens. "The Ravens have lost two straight, and given the division lead back to Pittsburgh. The Bengals would have defeated the Bills last week if it were not for that mind-blowing fourth-quarter collapse, but this is Joe Burrow's first game back playing in front of his home fans, and Lamar Jackson has not looked like himself recently. For those reasons, give me the Bengals in a wildly entertaining affair." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released on Friday, but you can get a preview here.
John Breech -- Packers (-2.5) 20-16 over Broncos. "We have two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off, which means there's a 50% chance that the final score is going to be 3-0. When I see a situation like this where the two top defenses are playing each other, I tend to pick the team that has the quarterback who I trust more, and right now, that's Jordan Love." You can find the rest of my Week 15 picks here.

For more Week 15 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page.

4. Joe Burrow's bizarre birthday press conference

Wednesday was Joe Burrow's 29th birthday, but he wasn't in any mood to celebrate. The Bengals quarterback sent the city of Cincinnati into a mild panic when he made some interesting comments about his desire to play during his weekly press conference.

Let's take a look at a few of the key exchanges that went down during the 15-minute session.

Does coming back from a serious injury change your competitive fire at all to go out and win? How does the toe injury maybe change the way you view the game?

"It certainly doesn't change my desire to win. If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it. I've been through a lot, and if it's not fun, then what am I doing it for? That's the mindset I'm trying to bring to the table."

How much fun are you having right now? Is it difficult to have fun given the season and what you've been through physically and emotionally?

[One-word inaudible answer.]

Winning is always fun, but in general, was it as fun before you got hurt?

"I wouldn't say I viewed it that way."

What was the turning point?

"I'm not sure there was a singular moment. It's just a reflection on a lot of things I've done and been through in my career. I think I've been through more than most, and it's certainly not easy on the brain or the body, so I'm just trying to have fun doing it again."

Is there a level of frustration you're dealing with right now? You seem like there's something on your mind.

"There's a lot of things going on right now."

Football-related or personal?

"All of the above."

What's it like balancing your well-being vs. wanting to come back as quickly as possible?

"It's something you have to think about. That's life as a professional athlete. It's no different in basketball, MMA or baseball. It's what we chose. We make a lot of sacrifices and your body is often one of them."

I was at the press conference, and Burrow definitely sounded a little down in the dumps. That being said, it should be noted that after the Bengals lost to the Bills on Sunday, Burrow sounded like someone who planned on playing football as long as possible. "I love what I do and I'm going to continue to do it."

5. NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 15: Three teams can secure a postseason spot

There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL, and NONE OF THEM have been clinched yet, which marks the first time in 11 years that we've made it to Week 15 without a single spot being clinched. However, that could change this week, and that's because there are three teams that could end up punching their ticket to the postseason: the Broncos, Patriots and Rams.

There are multiple playoff clinching scenarios this week, but we're just going to take a look at the simplest one for each team.

PATRIOTS (11-2)
Easiest path: If the Patriots want to clinch their first playoff berth in four years, all they have to do is beat the Bills. If they pull out the win on Sunday, they'll clinch the AFC East, which means they'll be guaranteed at least one home game in the playoffs.

BRONCOS (11-2)
Easiest path: The Broncos haven't made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning was in Denver, but that could change this year. This team got in the postseason last year, and if they want to clinch a return spot, all they have to do is beat the Packers.

RAMS (10-3)
Easiest path: The Rams can clinch a playoff spot on Sunday with a win over the Lions. Not only would Matthew Stafford get revenge on his old team, but he'd put the Rams in the postseason for the fourth time in his five years with the team.

If you want to check out all 13 clinching scenarios, including the ones that involve ties, you can do that here.

Super Bowl Survivor: Which two teams are left standing in one of the NFL's most unpredictable seasons?

Douglas Clawson

6. Extra points: Philip Rivers could actually start this week

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Colts might actually turn to Philip Rivers on Sunday. Rivers has only had one practice with the Colts this week, but there's still a chance he could start against the Seahawks. "We'll see how the week goes," Colts coach Shane Steichen said Wednesday. "We'll get to the end of the week and make that decision." The good news for Rivers is that he isn't learning a new offense. When Rivers was with the Chargers, Steichen was his QB coach for four seasons (2016–19), so he's familiar with what Steichen likes to do. Rivers explained this week why he decided to return, and you can check out his answer here.
NFL returning to Munich in 2026. The league announced that Munich will host a game next season, marking the city's third NFL game after hosting in 2022 and 2024. The NFL now has five international games set for 2026 -- one in Munich, one in Melbourne (Australia), one in Rio de Janeiro and at least two in London.
Lions and Falcons will both host an international game. For the fourth time in six seasons, the Falcons will be headed abroad in 2026. The team announced they'll be serving as the home team in an international game next year, although they didn't announce where they would be playing. Last month, the Falcons lost to the Colts in a game that was played in Berlin. In more international news, the Lions will also be serving as the home team in an international game for the 2026 season, according to the Detroit Free Press. We also know the Rams will be the home team for the game in Australia. Each NFC team will be playing nine home games next year, so you can bet that we'll be seeing NFC teams hosting most of the international games. The only AFC that might host would be the Jaguars.