The Chicago Bears are entering the playoffs with a 12-4 record, a plus-138 point differential, and a division crown, all of which came about because of a defense that finished the season ranked first in both points allowed and DVOA. But if the Bears are going to beat the Eagles on Sunday and make a deep postseason run, they'll need the good version of Mitchell Trubisky to show up. 

The Bears' defense playing well on Sunday (and maybe beyond) feels like a foregone conclusion, but it's entirely fair to question how Trubisky will fare in the first playoff action of his young career. In a 14-game regular season, Trubisky completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 95.4 passer rating -- in addition to 421 rushing yards and three touchdowns -- but inconsistency plagued him all season long. There was a six-touchdown outburst against the Buccaneers, but also a three-interception nightmare against the Rams. There was a three-touchdown performance against the Lions, but a two-interception stinker against the Vikings. There were some amazing downfield throws, but also wide-open, jarring misses.

Just look at his passer rating by game. Passer rating isn't the be-all and end-all statistic, but it can be revealing. In this case, it's an easy way to demonstrate some very real consistency issues that Trubisky exhibited in his second season.

  1. 77.2
  2. 83.0
  3. 73.5
  4. 154.6
  5. 122.5
  6. 69.8
  7. 102.7
  8. 76.0
  9. 148.6
  10. 61.9
  11. 33.3
  12. 120.4
  13. 113.5
  14. 85.9

The Bears are favored by six points over the Eagles despite Trubisky's inconsistencies. And with the first of my picks for Wild Card Weekend, I'm taking the Bears to both win and cover. I'm taking the Bears because I'm assuming their defense will do what they've done all season long against a streaky quarterback who is dealing with bruised ribs, and because I think Trubisky will play well. 

The thing about the Bears needing Trubisky to play well is that they don't even need him to play like Patrick Mahomes or Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson or Philip Rivers or Drew Brees. Because their defense is so good, they just need Trubisky to avoid turning the ball over and to hit the open passes NFL quarterbacks are supposed to make nine times out of 10. Both are issues that Trubisky struggled with at times during the season, but over the final three games of the season, Trubisky hit his open passes -- which Matt Nagy draws up on a weekly basis -- and avoided turning the ball over. The Bears went 3-0 in those games, during which Trubisky completed 75.9 percent of his passes, averaged 7.8 yards per pass, threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions, and posted a 109.7 passer rating. Again, that's nowhere near the level of other playoff quarterbacks, but it's good enough. If Trubisky plays that well, the Bears might very well go all the way to the Super Bowl assuming their defense keeps playing the way they've played over the past four months. The Bears lost one game when Trubisky finished with a passer rating above 80. They don't need stellar quarterback play to win. They just need competent quarterback play. 

Maybe the final three games were a fluky hot streak that's bound to end at a moment's notice. Maybe it was due to the schedule the Bears played down the stretch with two of three games coming against below average defenses. Or maybe it's Trubisky taking the next step in his development. Regardless, here's the good news for the Bears: The Eagles' defense isn't all that special. Entering the playoffs, the Eagles rank 23rd in yards allowed, 12th in points allowed, tied for 22nd in takeaways, and 15th in defensive DVOA. They're beatable. 

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On Sunday, I think we'll see the Trubisky we saw for most of December -- in part because he's been showing signs of progress in recent weeks and also because he's facing an average defense. And if he does struggle, which let's face it, is a real possibility, the Bears will still have their defense to lean on. Despite all of his struggles, Trubisky went 11-3 as a starting quarterback this season. In six starts, he posted a passer rating below 80. The Bears still won four of those games. 

The Bears might be able to beat the Eagles without their quarterback playing well. The Bears will almost assuredly beat the Eagles if their quarterback does play well. Trubisky has been playing well in recent weeks. And he gets an average defense on Sunday. That's why I'm taking the Bears to win and cover. 

Regular season record: 49-35-1 

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All odds via Sportsline

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Colts (+1) at Texans 

I've spent nearly the entire NFL season saying the Texans aren't as good as their record, so it'd be weird for me to suddenly stop doing that now. 

Truth be told, when I first started writing this section, I thought I was going to pick the Texans since they're at home and they won 11 games -- nine games in a row at one point. I started writing about how bad teams can't accidentally win nine games in a row and how we've gone from overvaluing them to underappreciating them. And then I realized the Colts won 10 games, including nine out of their past 10, which is pretty much as good as a nine-game winning steak. Furthermore, it's the Colts who outrank the Texans in DVOA (eight compared to 11th).

I think the Colts can neutralize J.J. Watt and the rest of the Texans' pass rush. They allowed an NFL-low 18 sacks during the regular season in part because Frank Reich's offensive scheme forces Andrew Luck to get rid of the ball quickly and also because the Colts' offensive line ranked second in pass protection, per Football Outsiders. On the other side, the Texans allowed an NFL-high 62 sacks during the regular season. Their offensive line ranks dead last in that same metric and Deshaun Watson hangs onto the ball longer than nearly every other quarterback in football. And about the two quarterbacks: While Watson has been exceptional in his second season, he hasn't been as good as Luck. By Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, Luck ranks three spots ahead of Watson.

I'm expecting a close game. Because I'm expecting a close game, I'll take the team with the better offensive line (by a wide margin) and the better quarterback (by a smaller margin). 

Pick: Colts

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Seahawks (+1.5) at Cowboys

This will sound simple, but I just think the Seahawks are better. They've got the better quarterback by a substantial margin. Russell Wilson finished 11th in DYAR and Dak Prescott came in 25th, and Wilson has Prescott beat in terms of postseason experience. While Ezekiel Elliott is undoubtedly the best running back in this game, the Seahawks actually own the league's best running game. The Seahawks have the better group of receivers. Defensively is where the Cowboys have the Seahawks beat (ninth compared to 14th in DVOA), but the gap isn't that substantial. The Cowboys allowed 1.4 fewer points per game than the Seahawks. Overall as a team, the Seahawks are ranked 12th in DVOA. The Cowboys are 21st.

In a game between Jason Garrett and Pete Carroll, I'm taking Carroll. In a game between Prescott and Wilson, I'm taking Wilson. In a game between the Seahawks and Cowboys, I'm taking the better coached team with the better quarterback.

Pick: Seahawks

Chargers (+3) at Ravens

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These two teams played two weeks ago and the Chargers lost 22-10, but the final score is a little misleading. It never really felt like a 12-point game. With less than three minutes remaining, the Chargers trailed by six and were driving to win the game, which is when Antonio Gates fumbled and the Ravens returned the fumble for a touchdown to ice the game. It's not that the Ravens didn't deserve to win the game. They absolutely did. It's just that in order to win, they needed Philip Rivers to submit his worst game of his otherwise splendid season and Gates to fumble for the eighth time in his 16-year career.

I don't think we'll see Rivers submit another stinker. Besides that Ravens game, Rivers has been phenomenal and while he won't have an easy time against the Ravens in Baltimore, I think he'll play closer to his normal standards. The point I'm trying to make here is that the Chargers barely lost to the Ravens a couple weeks ago when Rivers played his worst game of the season. What happens if he plays a normal Rivers game? 

The Ravens' run-heavy offense with Lamar Jackson has been fascinating to watch, but they'll run into problems if they are forced to overcome an early deficit. The Chargers are good enough to do that. They're also good enough to slow down the Ravens' rushing attack. By DVOA, the Chargers' defense is 10th against the run.

Pick: Chargers

Bears (-6) vs. Eagles

One final note about the Bears: finally rediscovering their running game just before the playoffs is almost just as important as Trubisky playing turnover-free ball. Over their past five games, they're averaging 134.2 rushing yards per game. In Week 17, right guard Kyle Long, who excels as a run blocker, returned from an injury that knocked him out for half the season. Don't overlook just how much of an impact he'll have in helping the Bears' running game get going.

Pick: Bears