cj-stroud-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

Several key battles take place in Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, including a showdown for first place in the AFC South between the Indianapolis Colts and host Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts (8-4) were one of the biggest surprises during the first half of the campaign as they won seven of their first eight games, but they've lost three of four and quarterback Daniel Jones is playing with a fractured fibula. Meanwhile, Jacksonville (8-4) has won three straight and owns the tiebreaker with Indianapolis.

For Sunday's matchup between the Colts and Jaguars, top sportsbooks have set the passing yards prop for Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence at 208.5 yards while Jonathan Taylor of Indianapolis - who leads the NFL with 1,282 yards - has his rushing yards prop set at 93.5.

Before you play a side on Lawrence, Taylor or any player prop for Week 14 of the NFL season, you need to see what SportsLine player prop expert PropBetGuy has to say. The expert is +922 on his last 33 NFL player prop picks. Here are his picks and analysis.

Darnell Washington Over 20.5 receiving yards (-111, DraftKings)

Washington has emerged as a key piece of the Steelers' passing attack. He's cleared this line in four of his last five games and is coming off a contest in which he saw his highest pass snap rate (88%) of the season.

Even if he sees less snaps against the Ravens, he really does not need much volume (8.6 yards per target this season). Baltimore is allowing the 10th-highest yards per target to tight ends with league-average volume. I see those targets coming, as I have Washington projected with four throws coming his way. I'd bet this up to Over 23.5 yards.

AJ Barner Under 15.5 yards longest reception (-120, DraftKings)

There's a lot to like about this Under. The counting stats support it: Barner has been Under this line in nine of 12 games, including each of the last six, with an average depth of target of 5.5 yards. Of his 44 targets, only eight have traveled more than 10 air yards.

He's facing the Falcons, who rank 10th in DVOA against tight ends (per FTN), and are in the top four in targets, receptions and yards allowed to the position.

Specifically against in-line tight ends (88% of Barner's alignment), Atlanta only allows 16.5 receiving yards per game. Barner also sees his target rate drop against both Cover 3 and single high safety coverages - the Falcons deploy both at a top-five rate.

I'd bet this line down to Under 14.5 yards.

C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards (-113, DraftKings)

Stroud has surpassed this line in six of his eight full games this season. Scrambling at a 7% rate (13th of 39 qualified quarterbacks), he'll face a Chiefs defense that's allowing 2.3 scrambles per game (seventh most) and 17.8 scramble yards per game (10th most).

Stroud should be able to clear this line with just two scrambles but I have him closer to three. While he didn't record a rushing yard last week after returning from a concussion, I do expect a return normalcy by the Texans quarterback.

I'd bet this up to Over 13.5 yards.