Bracketology Bubble Watch: North Carolina, Memphis, Boise State look for key wins on Sunday
In Saturday's action, Kentucky improved its standing while Clemson may have severely damaged its chances
By
Jerry Palm
•
3 min read
Kentucky took another big step toward ensuring a trip to the NCAA Tournament with a win over Tennessee on Saturday as the Wildcats completed a season sweep of the Volunteers. I'm not sure I trust them enough to pull them off the bubble yet, but one more win would do it for sure.
Texas A&M got arguably its best win of the season by completing a sweep of Missouri. The Aggies have also swept Auburn and Florida, although the Gators are not a tournament contender. The rest of the schedule is challenging with home games against Alabama and Tennessee as well as a road trip to the Mississippi schools.
Wisconsin may have taken one home loss too many. The Badgers lost their fifth home game of the season to Rutgers to drop to 3-5 at the Kohl Center against Quads 1-3 teams. Oddly enough, they are 7-6 away from home against that group. It's too late to write them off entirely with their remaining schedule, but you have to wonder if they are up to the challenge.
You can stick a fork in Clemson now after the Tigers lost at Louisville, the lowest ranked team in the NET among power conference schools, to give the Tigers their third Quad 4 loss this season. Clemson is 11-5 in the ACC and in fourth place but still seem to have no realistic shot at an at-large bid. That speaks to both the poor quality of the ACC this season and the damage the Tigers did to their tournament chances in non-conference play.
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on résumé: 12 | Bids secured: 0 | At-large spots remaining: 31
| Conference | Locks | Teams |
|---|---|---|
ACC | 0 | |
Big East | 0 | |
Big Ten | 1 | |
Big 12 | 4 | |
Pac-12 | 2 | |
SEC | 2 | |
American | 1 | |
Others | 2 | Gonzaga, Saint Mary's |
On the cut line
| Last Four In | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 17-9 | 21 |
| West Virginia | 15-11 | 24 |
| Mississippi State | 17-9 | 44 |
| Texas A&M | 19-7 | 31 |
| First Four Out | Record | NET |
| North Carolina | 16-10 | 45 |
| Wake Forest | 17-9 | 75 |
| New Mexico | 20-7 | 53 |
| Penn State | 15-11 | 59 |
| Next Four Out | Record | NET |
| Seton Hall | | |
| Clemson | | |
| Arizona State | | |
| Utah State | | |
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Bubble teams in action Sunday
| 1 |  |
| at NC State, 1 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) – North Carolina is sitting at 0-8 vs Quad 1 opposition, and that is not going to get the job done. This is the first of two or three chances left in the regular season to erase that zero in the win column. One Quad 1 win may not be enough, but zero is definitely not. | |
| 2 |  |
| at Houston, 3 p.m. | ESPN, fuboTV (Try for free) – The Tigers will get two, maybe three chances at Houston over the last few weeks of the season, and they probably need a win in one of those to feel comfortable about securing an at-large bid. They have wins over Texas A&M and Auburn but were swept by Tulane and also lost to Saint Louis and fellow bubbler Seton Hall. Memphis only lost at Alabama by three points earlier this season, so the Tigers are capable of handling their own in a game of this magnitude. | |
| 3 |  |
| vs. UNLV, 9 p.m. | FS1, fuboTV (Try for free) – Boise State has a good NET rating, but the resume does not quite match up. The Broncos' best and only Quad 1 win came against Texas A&M. They are also saddled with two Quad 3 losses. Boise State is not in a position where it can afford to lose home games to non-contenders. | |
All references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to tournaments going back to 1994 with the exception of 2021. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.
