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CBS Sports Graphic

Wednesday could only be called an unmitigated disaster for the bubble teams in action. Each took their worst loss of the season.

Wake Forest lost to Boston College in overtime in the Demon Deacons' first game of the ACC Tournament. Wake Forest likely needed a win over Miami to have a chance to get in, but that meant beating the Eagles first.

Xavier blew a late lead, missed a ton of free throws and lost to Butler in overtime in the Big East tournament. That makes eight losses in the last 10 games for the Musketeers. I still have them in the bracket for now, but in the First Four. I will not be surprised if they are out by Sunday.

Today should fare better since we have a pair of double-bubble games. That means we are guaranteed two winners.

Note – all references to NCAA tournament selection records and trends refer only to pre-pandemic tournaments. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of nonconference games in 2021, those rankings were not reliable enough to be considered.

Here are the "Last Four In" and the "First Four Out" in my latest Bracketology, plus the bubble teams in action Thursday. All times Eastern

Last Four In

Record

NET

SMU

22-7

49

Michigan

17-13

31

Xavier

18-13

40

Rutgers

18-12

78

First Four Out

Record

NET

Florida

19-12

55

Texas A&M

20-11

57

VCU

21-8

51

Indiana18-12
43

Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub  

Thursday's "Double bubble" games

Indiana vs. Michigan

11:30 a.m. | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free) 
Indiana
This is likely an elimination game for the loser. It definitely is for Indiana. The Hoosiers are lacking quality wins, have not done well against the better teams on their schedule and aren't good away from home. They are also below .500 against teams in the top three quadrants.
Michigan
Michigan needs this win to be guaranteed to finish four games above .500, which has been the unwritten minimum standard for an at-large team in a full season. The Wolverines might still get in even with a loss, because they have played a top-five schedule, but I wouldn't want to take that chance.

Florida vs. Texas A&M

Noon | SEC Network, fuboTV (Try for free) 
Florida
The other double-bubble game is in the 8-9 matchup of the SEC tournament, and like the other one, it is an elimination game for the loser. The winner is only guaranteed a chance to beat Auburn. Florida has a home win over Auburn and a neutral-site victory over Ohio State, but not much else. The Gators are 3-9 vs Quad 1 teams, 12-11 vs the top three quadrants and have a home loss to Texas Southern.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M has a similar resume, The Aggies are also 3-9 vs Quad 1 teams, 11-11 vs the top three quadrants and beat Florida at home in their only regular-season meeting. Texas A&M comes into this game on a four-game winning streak, including its best win of the season at Alabama.

Other bubble teams in action
Miami (Fla.)
vs. Boston College, 2:30 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free): The Hurricanes will miss out on an opportunity to get a better win against Wake Forest, but now this game is about avoiding a bad loss. The Canes have a weird resume. They are 4-1 in Quad 1 games, but have five Quad 2 losses and three Quad 3 losses. They are also better away from home. Miami is 4-0 against Duke, UNC and Wake Forest this season. A fourth Quad 3 loss may be one too many, though.
Va. Tech
vs. Notre Dame, 7 p.m. | ESPN2, fuboTV (Try for free): The MOV-based metrics love the Hokies, but their resume does not back that up. They have one Quad 1 win, which is part of a home-and-home split with Miami. They did beat Notre Dame at home in their only regular-season meeting, but that is the entire list of their quality wins. The Hokies need to do more than beat the Irish again to have a shot at getting into the field.