No. 1 Alabama's 26-14 loss at No. 6 Auburn has ended the Crimson Tide's hope for an SEC championship and done serious, but not fatal, damage to their College Football Playoff hopes. Auburn will now face Georgia next week for the SEC title and a spot in the playoff.
The loss by Alabama has not changed the conference representation of the projected CFP teams, but it has changed the order with the SEC dropping from No. 1 to No. 3 as the ACC and Big 12 each move up a spot.
2018 College Football Playoff
| DATE | GAME / LOC. | TIME / TV | MATCHUP | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | 8 p.m. | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | 5 p.m. | Semifinal | (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Georgia |
Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | 8:45 p.m. | Semifinal |
Strength of schedule still figures to hold down Wisconsin, but as I have said before, I do not believe an undefeated, major-conference champion will ever get left out of the playoff. Note that if Auburn beats Georgia, you can also expect the Tigers to be in the No. 3 slot.
Alabama still has a chance at the playoff, though. The Crimson Tide will be the top one-loss team out of the playoff projection above. It will be interesting to see what the committee does with the Tide this week. However, being the top one-loss team does not mean that Alabama could not be jumped by a two-loss team.
Let's take a look at the adjusted selection committee bowl games. My full updated bowl projections will be released on Sunday.
Selection committee bowl games
| DATE | GAME / LOC. | TIME / TV | MATCHUP | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Peach | 12:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Ohio State vs. UCF |
Dec. 30 | Fiesta | 4 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | USC vs. TCU |
Dec. 30 | Orange | 8 p.m. | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND | Miami vs. Alabama |
Dec. 29 | Cotton | 8:30 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Penn State vs. Auburn |
Notre Dame's loss to Stanford has dropped the Irish out of the New Year's Six bowl projections in favor of TCU, which will be coming off a projected loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. That's a close call.
Ohio State was in the Fiesta Bowl last two years, so the Buckeyes will most likely not be sent there again. USC played Penn State in the Rose Bowl last year, and a rematch of last year's game is also something the committee will try to avoid. The Peach will probably be disappointed to not get an SEC team, but the Buckeyes are not a bad substitute.
We now have 79 teams eligible to play in bowl games but only 78 spots for them. Two other teams, Florida State and New Mexico State, are projected to become eligible next week, which would make the total 81. UL-Lafayette could also join the list if it upsets Appalachian State. This is the first time in three years that there will be no need for a 5-7 team to fill a bowl spot.
I have Buffalo from the MAC, along with Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky from Conference USA, all 6-6 and staying home. The Frisco Bowl holds the key to that. It will choose a team from either C-USA or the MAC for its game. I have it taking 8-4 Ohio, but if the bowl decides on a team from C-USA instead, then the Bobcats or 8-4 Northern Illinois could be left out, while Middle Tennessee or WKU plays somewhere. Western Michigan, at 6-6, is most likely to get the open spot left by the Big Ten in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, even if Ohio becomes available, because Kalamazoo, Michigan, is so close to Detroit.
Click here to check out my entire set of bowl projections following Week 13.
