Bowl projections: Florida State jumps Texas in College Football Playoff, but Longhorns remain in field
Not all was lost for Texas on Saturday in the Red River Rivalry
By
Jerry Palm
•
2 min read
Texas took its first loss of the season to Oklahoma, 34-30, in the Red River Rivalry, a result that has caused a shift in the College Football Playoff projection. However, despite the Longhorns falling from the ranks of the undefeated, they do not take as dramatic a fall as one might expect.
In fact, the 'Horns remain in the CFP projection as the highest-rated one-loss team, only dropping from No. 3 to No. 4.
The scenario that serves as the basis for this projection: Texas and Oklahoma win out with the Horns getting revenge on the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game and both teams finishing the season 12-1. Ohio State -- also a one-loss team in this projection -- would be 11-1 after falling to eventual Big Ten champion Michigan at the conclusion of the regular season.
Texas gets the spot over Ohio State in this scenario due to being a conference champion (a minor criterion) and having a win over Alabama on the road in nonconference play. Ohio State also has a quality nonconference road win at Notre Dame, but it would be a 12th victory and a conference title short of matching Texas' resume. Oklahoma does not have a quality nonconference game on its schedule.
Florida State moves up from No. 4 to No. 3 with Georgia and Michigan remaining on top. The Bulldogs whipped Kentucky 51-13 on Saturday with the Wolverines similarly annihilating Minnesota 52-10.
College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl New Orleans | Semifinal | (1) Georgia vs. (4) Texas |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Semifinal | (2) Michigan vs. (3) Florida State |
Elsewhere, Tulane is back in the Fiesta Bowl after Fresno State's loss at Wyoming. That also means swapping USC and Washington again to avoid a rematch of last year's bowl game between the Trojans and Green Wave. USC moves back in the Cotton Bowl and Washington moves over to the Fiesta Bowl.
New Year's Six bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Fiesta Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Washington vs. Tulane |
Dec. 30 | Orange Bowl | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | North Carolina vs. Ohio State |
Dec. 30 | Peach Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Alabama vs. Penn State |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | USC vs. Oklahoma |
Air Force is out of place in the ACC's spot in the Military Bowl, but since ESPN controls the bowl schedule and they have shown a willingness to move teams out of their conference spots to create matchups they like, this is a move that could happen. The Falcons would face Memphis in a battle of teams with double-digit wins and it would be nice to have a military academy in that game.
So, when you see a team that is not in one if its conference's bowl slots, that is one reason such a move could happen. It is also likely that conference has more eligible teams than it has bowl slots.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's bowl projections after Week 6.
