Since the College Football Playoff was implemented in 2015, Alabama has made at least the semifinals every season but one, and the Crimson Tide will look to continue plowing towards their eight appearance in nine years when they take on the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday. No. 2 Alabama is a 17-point favorite on the road over No. 20 Arkansas (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) according to the latest Week 5 college football odds from Caesars Sportsbook. But after nearly losing as a 21-point favorite in its last road game against Texas, can you trust Alabama enough to include the Tide in your Week 5 college football bets?
No. 4 Michigan would also love to get back into the CFP after an embarrassing 34-11 loss to Georgia in the semifinals last year. The Wolverines are 10.5-point favorites on the road against the unranked Iowa Hawkeyes according to the Week 5 college football lines. Before locking in any Week 5 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Top college football predictions for Week 5
One of the college picks the model is high on in Week 5: No. 18 Oklahoma (-5) goes on the road and covers against TCU at noon ET on Saturday. Oklahoma might have taken itself out of playoff contention with a loss to Kansas State last week but Chris Klieman's Wildcats have generally just had Oklahoma's number the last few years. Kansas State has won three out of four and covered the spread in each of those four contests. The Sooners, however, have largely been dominant against the rest of the Big 12.
Oklahoma owns an eight-game winning streak over TCU and has beaten the Horned Frogs by double-digits in five of the last six head-to-head matchups while covering the spread in six of seven. Dillon Gabriel played well for Oklahoma in the loss to Kansas State, throwing for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He's now thrown for 1,089 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception and the TCU pass defense allows 272.5 passing yards per game and just gave up 373 yards through the air against SMU.
The model is predicting that Gabriel throws for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns on average. It's also predicting that the Oklahoma defense limits TCU quarterback Max Duggan to less than 240 yards passing to help the Sooners cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations.
Another one of the model's top college football picks: No. 13 Oregon (-17) has no trouble covering the double-digit spread against Stanford in Saturday's 11 p.m. ET kickoff in Eugene. The Ducks got off to a terrible start this season with their blowout loss to Georgia, but they have looked like a completely different team since then. They blew out Eastern Washington and then-No. 12 BYU at home in consecutive weeks before going on the road and squeaking past Washington State last week.
Oregon opened as a 15-point favorite before the early betting action came in on the Ducks, but the model still likes them at the current number. Stanford has already lost a pair of games by double digits, including a 40-22 setback at Washington last week. Quarterback Tanner McKee has thrown four interceptions in three games and the model has him throwing two interceptions on Saturday night in the latest simulations.
Ducks quarterback Bo Nix is throwing for nearly 300 yards and at least two touchdowns, while the rushing attack is combining for 200 yards. Stanford does not have enough offense to keep pace with Oregon, which is why the Ducks are covering the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams the model likes here.
How to make college football picks for Week 5
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup in Week 5, and it says a top-10 favorite will go down hard in one of the week's biggest games. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which top-10 favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned more than $3,100 in profit over the past six-plus seasons, and find out.
College football odds for Week 5 (via Caesars)
Saturday, Oct. 1
Oklahoma at TCU (+5, 69.5)
Stanford at Oregon (-17, 62.5)