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Now we're getting into the thick of it. November is underway, which means conference title races are heating up and the playoff picture is becoming clearer. 

That also means elimination games are coming. The Bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State counts as one in the playoff race. Sometimes, though, they come where you least expect them. This week's upset alerts group looks at three CFP Top-25 teams on the road against unranked opponents. 

Each week, we give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. As an extra challenge, we try to avoid games whose lines are within a touchdown with exceptions being made for cases that warrant them.

No. 9 Wisconsin at Indiana 

When: Saturday, noon ET | Where: Bloomington, Indiana | Opening line: Wisconsin -10

Why it's listed: I've listed Indiana as a team capable of pulling off an upset a couple of times this season. The Hoosiers have come close in varying degrees, but for one reason or another, they've suffered brutal disappointments. That's Indiana, though: good, but never quite good enough. However, this team is different, and tougher to beat at home. The Badgers' schedule is Charmin soft, but this is an underrated tough road game for them. This is also an interesting matchup between Wisconsin's offense and Indiana's defense as you'll read below.

Indiana wins if: It can win on standard downs. Advanced stats from Football Outsiders show the Hoosiers have a top-25 defense on standard downs while showcasing an elite defense in obvious passing situations. Well, Wisconsin is a run-first team. That's evident not only in that it leads the Big Ten in rushing yards per game, but also in the fact that it runs 75 percent of the time in first-and-second down situations. With star running back Jonathan Taylor listed as questionable, there's a chance for Indiana to knock Wisconsin's offense out of sync. 

Wisconsin wins if: It keeps beasting up front. The Badgers lead the Big Ten with 27 sacks as a complement to their stellar ground attack. In other words, Wisconsin smashes you in the face and asserts itself in a style that is slow and painful -- as you'd expect. This is a team that simply doesn't have many weaknesses to exploit. They can run, they can stop the run, they're good on third downs and they're outstanding in red zone defensive situations.  

No. 14 Auburn at Texas A&M

When: Saturday, noon ET | Where: College Station, Texas | Opening line: Auburn -12.5

Why it's listed: This should be the time of year when Texas A&M starts collapsing in on itself like a dying star. The Aggies might have actually started that process a week early against Mississippi State. But I don't like the idea of using a pre-existing narrative to explain one loss against a good team when Sumlin has quietly done an overall decent job this year. Not yet, anyway. Also, it's been tough to tell exactly what you're going to get out of Auburn's offense this season. 

Texas A&M wins if: Quarterback Kellen Mond rebounds and Christian Kirk has a big day. Mond has completed just 16 passes and at an average of 32 percent over the last two games with zero touchdowns and three picks. That's undone the growth he's made as a passer. Kirk remains one of the most electrifying athletes in open space in all of college football. Those two need to light it up.  

Auburn wins if: The passing game is efficient enough to create balance. Running back Kamryn Pettway is out indefinitely with a fractured scapula, so one piece of the Tigers' one-two punch at running back behind Kerryon Johnson is gone. Overall, the ground game should be fine but when there's no threat of the pass -- or an all-too-predictable, chuck it deep threat -- the efficiency and creativity of this offense goes into the sewers. 

No. 18 UCF at SMU

When: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET | Where: Dallas, Texas | Opening line: UCF -13

Why it's listed: Because every good team has that one bad game, and we haven't seen UCF play it yet. In addition to having the nation's best scoring offense, the Knights have a tremendous defense ... but SMU can score, too. A road shootout could get tricky. There's also the possibility coach Scott Frost is unable to make the trip because of the birth of his first child. The Knights won't be lifeless or without a script if Frost doesn't make the trip, but it's something to keep in mind. 

SMU wins if: UCF is off its game. To get an upset over an opponent of this caliber, SMU has to play its best and catch a few breaks. The Mustangs, like UCF, have a good turnover margin and have the AAC's best red zone defense. Hidden yards and less conventional stops will be key. 

UCF wins if: Its defense steps up. With all the talk about the No. 1 offense, the defense doesn't get its due. UCF leads the AAC in touchdowns allowed (19) and points per game (19.7) while ranking second in yards per play allowed. SMU's best chance to win is in a shootout while UCF has a better shot with defense. 

Texas at No. 8 TCU

When: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET | Where: Forth Worth, Texas | Opening line: TCU -7

Why it's listed: TCU should have been on upset alert last week against Iowa State, but the Frogs had been so good on the road that I talked myself out of it. The 14-7 loss was a combination of TCU running into a defensive buzzsaw (the Cyclones have the most improved defensive unit in the Big 12 from a year ago) and shooting itself in the foot (11 penalties for 104 yards and three turnovers). As it turns out, Texas offers a lot of the same defensive matchup problems as Iowa State does. 

Texas wins if:  Its quarterback is healthy enough to move the ball. That's the main question here, because it's not clear who will start: Shane Buechele or Sam Ehlinger. This has been the theme pretty much all season long. Ehlinger is the better overall fit for the offense, but Buechele was rock solid in the win over Baylor (and he looked healthier than expected). As crazy as it may sound, if Texas trots out a healthy quarterback, I'd give it the edge over TCU at that position because both teams have excellent run defenses. Kenny Hill is at his best when he doesn't have to do everything for TCU. 

TCU wins if: KeVontae Turpin is the game changer. Otherwise, Texas has a lot of answers for TCU's running attack. Coach Gary Patterson has already said he needs to get Turpin more involved on offense. Since Turpin represented the only score for the Frogs last week -- a non-offensive touchdown, at that -- that would be a smart move. As of now, Turpin is getting an absurdly low six touches a game. You can't overwork Turpin since he's a small guy, but he's low-key one of the shiftiest and most difficult players to defend in the country. 

No. 22 Arizona at No. 17 USC

When: Saturday, 10:45 p.m. ET | Where: Los Angeles, California | Opening line: USC -9

Why it's listed: Have you watched Khalil Tate over the past month? He led all rushers with 840 yards in the month of October, averaged 210 yards on the ground on a mere 14.75 carries per game. No runner averaging at least 10 carries a game came close to his 14.24 yards per rush average. The market will correct on those numbers eventually, but he remains statistically the most explosive player to touch the ball on every single play. To be a touchdown dog with that type of talent out of nowhere absolutely puts the Trojans on alert. 

Arizona wins if: If you know who takes over another game. USC quarterback Sam Darnold has a reputation for being the guy you want with the ball down a score with two minutes left in the game, but at this point, Tate has proven no one can stop him. He's the key to this game, and the next game, and the game after that, and so on. 

USC wins if: Good Darnold shows up. It's no secret this has been an up-and-down year for the preseason Heisman candidate, but there are still flashes of that potential No. 1 overall NFL draft pick that was the talk of the offseason. Darnold can be great on the run and he'll place some throws where few can. But he needs to carry over a good October (11 TDs, 2 INTs) into November.