2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Picking at No. 5 in non-PPR leagues
After the big four running backs are gone, the No. 5 pick provides a lot of options in non-PPR leagues, writes Ben Gretch.
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Ben Gretch
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Non-PPR draft slot: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
In a non-PPR draft, the No. 5 pick is one of my least-favorite draft slots this year.
Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and I each picked three teams in a 12-team non-PPR mock in order to provide you a blueprint for how to attack a draft from each position. The scoring is standard, and we start three wide receivers and one flex.
After the big four running backs went off the board, I had a decision to make. In PPR, I'm very comfortable with David Johnson in the No. 5 spot. In non-PPR, it gets a little trickier, because a big reason to target Johnson is his tremendous receiving upside. Of course, Johnson is also a bully in the red zone, and it was this trait that ultimately led me to take him here.
Let's look at how the rest of my draft played out.
- 1.5 David Johnson, RB, Cardinals
- 2.8 Todd Gurley, RB, Rams
- 3.5 Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams
- 4.8 O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers
- 5.5 Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
- 6.8 Allen Robinson, WR, Bears
- 7.5 Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers
- 8.8 Corey Davis, WR, Titans
- 9.5 Justice Hill, RB, Ravens
- 10.8 Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings
- 11.5 Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers
- 12.8 Josh Gordon, WR, Patriots
- 13.5 James Washington, WR, Steelers
- 14.8 Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jaguars
- 15.5 Browns DST
In non-PPR, I'm much more likely to start RB-RB than I would in PPR. One of the reasons for that is there are several mid-round wide receivers I really like this season. Mike Williams is one of a slew of upside options I'll target there, while I still believe Corey Davis has room to break out. Robinson is a pick I feel quite confident will beat his Draft Day value, but I have a hard time taking him over the tier of young wide receivers that he goes around. I was happy to snag him as my WR3 here after those sexier names were off the board.
The decision to take Todd Gurley in the second round stands out, and we'll get into that below, but taking Cooks in the third after that pick is also interesting. The way I view it, if Gurley is worth the second-round pick, the Rams offense is probably in good shape, so it would be fine to be starting two key pieces every week. If Gurley isn't... maybe Cooks would actually be in for a bit of an increase in production? Seems possible that if Gurley misses significant time, this offense could go more pass-heavy and rely on their studly trio of receivers, which could unlock some serious upside for Cooks. In a weird way, I sort of handcuffed my second-round RB pick with my third-round WR.
I was pleased with the rest of the RB depth I got in this draft, as Ronald Jones is a player I'm still buying despite some reasons for concern, and Justice Hill, Alexander Mattison, and Ryquell Armstead are all upside rookies I'm glad to get in a non-PPR format as potential late-season contributors.
O.J. Howard is a player with elite efficiency through two seasons who could explode this year if the wide receiver departures open up more targets, and after taking both him and Jones, I was invested enough in the Buccaneers offense that I almost had to target Jameis Winston as my quarterback.
Josh Gordon and James Washington both appear to have very low floors right now as my WR5 and WR6, but both are downfield weapons with more upside in non-PPR than PPR, and either would be easy cuts as two of my last four picks should they look unlikely to contribute. Since I felt good about my earlier WR choices, it was easier to take big swings in the later rounds.
Favorite pick
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If you're confident a player is really good, maybe even elite, and your only concern is whether he'll get the ball enough, that typically indicates a pick worth making. A lot can happen in an NFL season, and volume opens up, but even when it doesn't, the cream tends to rise to the top. Of course, Howard's already in a good spot, with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries leaving behind a combined 179 targets from last year. Howard is obviously early in his career, but his 11.5 career yards per target makes Rob Gronkowski's 9.9 -- easily the top TE mark of all-time among those with significant volume -- look weak. And in two seasons, Howard has elite touchdown rates of 15.4% and 10.4%. All he needs is health and some more volume.
Pick I might regret
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Every time I take Ronald Jones, I know he's the pick I might regret. But I keep on taking him, and maybe even a little early, as his ADP seems to be slipping a bit recently. Jones was of course awful last season, but he returns to what should be a plus offense that didn't add much talent at the position. The Bucs have plenty of incentive to give Jones opportunities to succeed after taking him in the second round as the youngest back in last year's draft. The red flags are well known, but the Draft Day price on Jones makes him a back worth targeting as an upside play.
Make or break pick
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There's no denying Gurley is a risky pick in the second round this year. But especially in non-PPR, I can't shake the reality that he still finished three touchdowns clear of every other player in the league last season despite missing two games and getting no more than 13 carries in four of the final six games he did play in. He also finished three touchdowns clear of the field in 2017. While Gurley's issues cropped up midseason last year, the Rams go into 2019 with more information, and I expect they'll limit his workload throughout the season as a preventative measure. But the red zone work could and perhaps should still be there, and that's a difference-maker in non-PPR.
