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USATSI

When the 2021 NFL Draft kicks off next Thursday, at least five quarterbacks are widely expected to come off the board in the first 32 picks. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones have all been speculated as top-three selections. And that's not accounting for potential surprise first-round QBs like Stanford's Davis Mills, Florida's Kyle Trask or Texas A&M's Kellen Mond. In short, plenty of teams figure to be in the market for rookie signal-callers.

Exactly how many clubs can we count on to add -- or aggressively pursue -- a QB in the first round, though? We decided to assess all 32 teams according to their likelihood of spending a Day One pick on a new passer. Plenty of the teams listed below may very well end up adding a QB after the first round, but here's how we'd sort them for the first night of action:

Stone-cold locks

Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 1): Lawrence is already donating to Jacksonville charities. You can order your jerseys now, Jags fans.

New York Jets (No. 2): They confirmed as much by dealing Sam Darnold. The only question is, will they stun the rest of the league by taking Fields, or fall in line with projections and pick Wilson?

San Francisco 49ers (No. 3): They insist Jimmy Garoppolo is still in their plans, but they moved up to replace him, either now or later. The gut feeling here is that, while Jones is apparently NFL-ready, they'll aim for higher upside in Fields or Lance.

Definitely possible

Atlanta Falcons (No. 4): New coach Arthur Smith may see a two- or three-year window to jump-start Matt Ryan's career, but it's just hard to justify passing on a dynamic successor (Fields? Lance?) when you own a rare top-five pick.

Detroit Lions (No. 7): We're convinced they'd rather move back and collect more picks while letting Jared Goff serve as a high-upside placeholder under center, but if Fields or Lance is there, what's stopping them from pulling the trigger?

Carolina Panthers (No. 8): They seem even more invested than the Lions in their reclamation project (Darnold), but again, in the event Fields or Lance somehow falls into their lap, a rebuilt front office hungry for a QB upgrade would likely be elated.

Denver Broncos (No. 9): New general manager George Paton has admitted he wants more competition for Drew Lock. Unless the Broncos really like Jones, they'd almost assuredly have to move up for another QB. But the hefty price could be worth it.

New England Patriots (No. 15): They haven't drafted a QB above the third round since Garoppolo in 2014. But this offseason signaled an unusual aggression from Bill Belichick and Co., who are desperate to return to form with Tom Brady thriving elsewhere.

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Don't rule them out

Philadelphia Eagles (No. 12): No one knows what the Eagles are doing at QB, where they've shipped out Carson Wentz but refused to commit to Jalen Hurts. Moving back from No. 6 seemed to suggest they were out of the market, but if someone slides ...

Minnesota Vikings (No. 14): Kirk Cousins is the guy through 2021, but GM Rick Spielman has all kinds of ammo for a potential move up. Imagine if he could bring in someone like Lance as the next-generation dual threat for Mike Zimmer's run-heavy attack.

Washington Football Team (No. 19): The only reason they're this low is because it'll likely take a decent trade up to land one of the top-five QB prospects. Is that something Ron Rivera wants to do considering he's built a team ready to compete in the NFC East now?

Chicago Bears (No. 20): Are they really going to ride with Andy Dalton as their only post-Mitchell Trubisky plan? Like Washington, though, they'd need to be willing to part with other assets if they even want a chance at guys such as Lance or Jones, who'd be instant upgrades.

New Orleans Saints (No. 28): No stranger to surprise draft-day deals, they might be genuinely excited for Jameis Winston's takeover post-Drew Brees, but if someone like Jones were to slide within striking distance, you'd have to think they'd consider it.

Crazier things have happened

Las Vegas Raiders (Nos. 17, 48): We're listing their second-round pick, too, because maybe a trade back into the first would make more sense. Derek Carr just turned 30 and has an easily escapable contract. Still, Jon Gruden almost never drafts QBs early.

Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 24): Taking a QB in the first would run counter to their all-in approach for 2021, Ben Roethlisberger's supposedly final hurrah. But what if Mike Tomlin (smartly) has his eyes on the next chapter of this franchise, too?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 32): Like the Steelers, they're far more inclined to add instant help for an immediate return to title contention. And yet, with such a deep roster, perhaps they'd consider an heir apparent to Brady, who'll be 44 in Week 1?

Houston Texans (No. 67): They don't have a first- or second-rounder, so they'd need to move all the way up from the third round to make this happen. But if Deshaun Watson's future in Houston is actually murky, perhaps they'd get crazy bold to replenish the position.

No Chance

Cincinnati Bengals (No. 5): Joe Burrow, baby.

Miami Dolphins (No. 6): Tua Tagovailoa may have lots of room to grow, but he's only one year removed from going No. 5 overall.

Dallas Cowboys (No. 10): You don't pay Dak Prescott $160 million for nothing.

New York Giants (No. 11): They're set on giving Daniel Jones a chance to play with real weapons.

Los Angeles Chargers (No. 13): Justin Herbert, baby.

Arizona Cardinals (No. 16): Their focus is on protecting Kyler Murray, not replacing him.

Indianapolis Colts (No. 21): Before trading for Wentz, they may have been in play. But you don't surrender two premium picks for a 28-year-old former Pro Bowler if you're not serious about giving him a year or two.

Tennessee Titans (No. 22): Ryan Tannehill is 32, but he's essentially tied to the team through 2022. Besides, they're still right in the playoff hunt with him under center.

Cleveland Browns (No. 26): They just exercised Baker Mayfield's fifth-year option, and rightfully so.

Baltimore Ravens (No. 27): Lamar Jackson, baby.

Green Bay Packers (No. 29): Can you imagine if they pulled another Jordan Love this year, just to ensure another angry MVP performance from Aaron Rodgers?

Buffalo Bills (No. 30): Stay tuned for Josh Allen's mega extension.

Kansas City Chiefs (No. 31): You can probably keep them in this section for the next 10 years, barring some kind of catastrophic decline from Patrick Mahomes.

Seattle Seahawks (No. 56): They'd have to move back up first of all. The only way this happens is if they're somehow bent on reigniting Russell Wilson's interest in playing elsewhere.

Los Angeles Rams (No. 57): After surrendering multiple firsts to get Matthew Stafford, the last thing they're going to do is move back into the first for a QB.