2026 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds: Ty Simpson overtakes Fernando Mendoza after Week 9 college football games
There's a new favorite to go first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft

Tuscaloosa was in a state of panic after Week 1 of the 2025 college football season, which saw the Alabama Crimson Tide lose as two-touchdown favorites against the Florida State Seminoles. Two months later, the Crimson Tide are coming off a comeback win over the South Carolina Gamecocks and Ty Simpson is in contention for the Heisman Trophy. Simpson was heavily criticized after Week 1 but now he might cash in on some college hardware and be the first quarterback picked in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Here's a look at the latest odds to go first overall in the April 2026 event from DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 1 pick odds for 2026 NFL Draft (via DraftKings)
- Ty Simpson, Alabama +220 (was +600)
- Fernando Mendoza, Indiana +290 (was +200)
- LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina +600 (was +425)
- Dante Moore, Oregon +750 (was +650)
- Rueben Bain Jr., Miami +800 (was +900)
- Garrett Nussmeier, LSU +2000 (was +1500)
- Jayden Maiava, USC +2500 (was +2500)
- Carson Beck, Miami +2500 (was +2500)
- John Mateer, Oklahoma +3000 (was +3000)
- Arch Manning, Texas +4000 (was +4000)
The favorite
Alabama QB Ty Simpson
Simpson has overtaken Indiana's Mendoza as the favorite to go first overall and might give the Hoosiers star a serious run at the Heisman Trophy as well. The Alabama passer has thrown for 20 touchdowns on the year and the Crimson Tide have rattled off seven straight wins after the Week 1 setback to be in prime position for the College Football Playoff. NFL scouts might need to see more from him against top competition before grading him as the first overall pick, but he's the hottest quarterback in college football heading into Week 10.
Notable slides
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier
The Tigers had not lost to Texas A&M in Baton Rouge since the Aggies joined the SEC. That changed in a big way on Saturday night with the undefeated Aggies blasting LSU 49-25, with Nussmeier managing just 168 passing yards. The quarterback returned to LSU this season in an attempt to boost his draft stock but it's possible he falls to the bottom of the first round or even out of it with his recent play. The Tigers have a huge showdown against Alabama coming up where Nussmeier has to produce big numbers to right the ship.
















