NFL Week 15 betting power ratings: NFC West takes top two spots, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 15 matchup in the NFL
The top two teams in the league both reside in the NFC West, and I don't think it's possible to argue otherwise. The Seahawks lead the league in point differential, and the Rams are 42 points ahead of third place, which belongs to a Patriots team that has played the easiest schedule in the league. With a small gap between Seattle and L.A., plus the latter playing a much more difficult schedule, the Rams are our top team in betting power ratings.
The third best team in the league for me right now is the Packers, less for their point differential and more due to winning two tough games against division rivals to take control of the NFC North. The offense finally has Christian Watson and Jayden Reed on the field at the same time, and with Jordan Love playing like a darkhorse MVP candidate, I'd have trouble making anyone other than my top two a pick 'em against Green Bay on a neutral field right now, especially with one of the teams right behind the Packers being the Lions, who they beat on Thanksgiving in Detroit.
The Lions appeared to get back on track against the Cowboys last Thursday, and with Amon-Ra St. Brown playing in that game I'm comfortable making Detroit tied for fourth with the Bills. They aren't far enough back to justify being 6-point underdogs at my top-rated team, so I've locked in a play at that number over at SportsLine.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 15 power ratings
| Team | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 7 | 6 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| SEA | 6.5 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| GB | 5 | 4.5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| BUF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 5 |
| DET | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 |
| NE | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | 4 | 3.5 |
| HOU | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DEN | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| KC | 2.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 7 |
| PHI | 2 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| DAL | 2 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| JAC | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 |
| SF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| BAL | 1 | 2.5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| CHI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| LAC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -5 |
| PIT | 0 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 |
| CAR | -2 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4 |
| MIA | -2 | -3.5 | -4 | -4 | -4.5 |
| MIN | -3 | -6 | -3 | -2 | 0 |
| ARI | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3 | -2.5 | -2 |
| ATL | -3.5 | -3 | -3 | -5 | -1 |
| NYG | -3.5 | -4 | -2.5 | -3 | -3.5 |
| WAS | -4.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| CLE | -4.5 | -6 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| NO | -4.5 | -7 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| IND | -5 | 2.5 | 5 | 6 | 5.5 |
| LV | -7 | -7 | -6 | -5.5 | -4 |
| NYJ | -8.5 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -9 | -7.5 |
| TEN | -8.5 | -9 | -8.5 | -9 | -8 |
I made significant adjustments to the Texans and Chiefs to get the former above the latter after the Sunday night win. The Chiefs offensive line is a major issue right now, to the point that I'm not sure why we should have significant separation between them and the Chargers, their Week 15 opponent. I still have a 1.5-point gap there but it feels a bit much.
The Eagles also fall significantly after a third straight loss, and I'm not sure how we can trust their offense at this point. Sure, Jalen Hurts isn't going to turn the ball over five times in a game again, but every point they've scored in their last five games aside from the first half against Dallas feels like pulling teeth, which is surprising considering the talent on hand.
Throw the Ravens in the pile of supposedly top-tier offenses that look broken even as they were able to run for 217 yards against the Steelers. Lamar Jackson isn't playing anywhere near an MVP level right now, and they'll need to avoid a third straight loss to stay in the playoff race. The Chiefs, Eagles and Ravens all feel like teams that could be at their best in the second tier behind our top two alongside the Packers, Lions and Bills, and at their worst in the tier just ahead of our bottom tier of awful squads.
I have been somewhat aggressive moving ratings around, particularly with the below-average teams, as I try less to stick to my normal strategy of don't move a team too far from where you had them last week and focus more on which team I would take right now on a neutral field. That led me to bump the Browns and Saints up from the basement and put them next to the Commanders, while the Colts had to sink below that group with their current QB situation.
Full Week 15 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | TB | -5.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | |
| BAL | CIN | +2.5 | +2.5 | -0.5 | |
| ARI | HOU | -6.5 | -9.5 | -7.5 | Huge move off lookahead |
| BUF | NE | -1 | +1 | -0.5 | Why would line flip after close BUF win? |
| CLE | CHI | -7 | -7.5 | -7.5 | |
| LAC | KC | -5.5 | -4.5 | -3 | OT availability for both teams key |
| LV | PHI | -12.5 | -11.5 | -10 | |
| WAS | NYG | +2 | -2.5 | -2 | |
| NYJ | JAC | -8.5 | -11.5 | -11.5 | |
| IND | SEA | -3.5 | -13.5 | -12.5 | Is Daniel Jones worth 10 points? |
| GB | DEN | +1.5 | +2.5 | -0.5 | |
| CAR | NO | +2.5 | +2.5 | +1 | |
| DET | LAR | -4.5 | -5.5 | -4 | |
| TEN | SF | -12.5 | -12.5 | -12.5 | |
| MIN | DAL | -7.5 | -6 | -6 | |
| MIA | PIT | -3 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home-field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an auto play, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
