Bracketology: Duke stumbles down one seed as top teams hold steady
Not a lot of movement after all top 10 teams won on Saturday
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Despite a lot of action and good games on Saturday, there was not a lot of movement at the top of the bracket. The top 10 teams all won, but three of the next four lost, including Duke, Butler, and Florida.
All three moved down the 1-68 list a little, but only Duke dropped a seed, moving down to a No. 4. Florida State, which beat Miami on Saturday, moved up into the Blue Devils’ old spot.
North Carolina’s win over Duke means that the Tar Heels will hold on to a No. 1 seed entering the ACC tournament next week. The Pac-12 tournament could also have a say in how that top line shakes out, with three contenders in Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA.
Florida lost at Vanderbilt, paving the way for Kentucky to claim the outright SEC title. The Wildcats had to come from way behind again to win, this time at Texas A&M. The Gators do not have a lot of great wins – really just the one over Kentucky at home – but they have played a strong schedule and the committee was impressed with that during the pre-selection show in February.
Butler lost at home to Seton Hall, which finished the season on quite a high note. The Pirates won five of their last six, which also included wins over Creighton and Xavier. Butler continues to build an odd tournament resume. The Bulldogs have ten top-50 wins, including a sweep of Villanova and victories over Arizona and Cincinnati. However, they were also swept by Creighton, lost at home to Seton Hall and Georgetown, and fell at St. John’s and Indiana State. Teams like this are a lot of fun for the committee to figure out.
As we enter the final day of the regular season, only two conferences have yet to finish up. The AAC and the Big Ten tournament brackets will be set by the end of the day. All of the others are ready to go.
One has already completed. Jacksonville State is making its first ever NCAA tournament appearance after beating UT-Martin to win the Ohio Valley Conference as a No. 4 four seed.
Three other champions will be crowned today. Florida Gulf Coast hosts North Florida in the Atlantic Sun final and Campbell travels to Winthrop to try to win the Big South title.
The game that will get all the attention though is the Missouri Valley final between top seed Illinois State and No. 2 Wichita State. Both teams have sketchy at-large profiles, but the winner will not have to worry about that. The loser is hoping for a strong enough showing to keep from having their final impression to the committee be a bad one. They are also hoping for help. The loser, regardless of who it is, will only have two top-100 wins, one of which is against the winner. But the loser will be 1-2 against the winner. Wichita State is the better at-large candidate because the Shockers have no bad losses, but neither is all that great.
















