Friday Five: College football teams least likely to turn their seasons around
These teams are off to bad starts, and they may not be able to rebound
Every Friday, the Friday Five ranks something in the world of college football -- anything and everything from the logical to the illogical. This week we rank five teams that are off to rough starts and may not be able to turn things around.
The thing about preseason expectations is that, for every team that meets or exceeds them, there's always a team that doesn't. So far, the 2016 season doesn't seem to have a shortage of teams that are off to rougher starts than they anticipated.
If you just look around the Power Five conferences, there are a number of teams who already have at least two losses: Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, Iowa, LSU, Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, TCU and USC. These were all teams that entered 2016 with thoughts of competing for a conference title, or maybe even a playoff spot, and now we're here in mid-October and those hopes are already squashed.
Still, that doesn't mean some of these teams aren't going to turn it around and have successful seasons, but not everyone will. So for this week's Friday Five, I've decided to rank the five teams from this list I think are most likely to have a disastrous season.
Now, by disaster, I don't mean 2-10. I'm talking about finishing like 6-6, or possibly missing a bowl game altogether.
So let's get to it.
5. USC: The Trojans are definitely off to an ugly start, as they're 2-3, but if we look at the teams they've lost to (Alabama, Stanford and Utah), it's not like they're falling to horrible teams. Also, ever since turning to Sam Darnold at quarterback, the offense has seemed more capable. Why I'm including them on this list, though, is because there are still a few difficult games left on this schedule. The Trojans play a revitalized Colorado team this weekend, and later this season they'll have to face Oregon, Washington, UCLA and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. A 4-3 finish to the season isn't exactly impossible.
4. Northwestern: The Wildcats have begun the year with two wins in five games. Losses to Western Michigan and Nebraska aren't really anything to be ashamed of, but that Illinois State loss hurts. What concerns me about this Northwestern team more than anything is its offense. This is a team that averaged only 19.5 points per game last year, and is at 20.6 points per game this season. It's hard to win that way, and with games on the schedule against Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin, things won't be getting that much easier.
3. Auburn: Honestly, as I wrote about in The Fornelli 50 earlier this week, I'm actually a bit more optimistic about Auburn right now than I had been before the season. I still have to be pragmatic here and include them on this list. The Tigers are 3-2, but still have games remaining against Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. Of those games, only Arkansas will be on The Plains. That doesn't leave much room for error.
2. Michigan State: OK, so now we're getting to the portion of this list where I have legitimate concerns. That's what happens after you watch Michigan State get pasted at home by Wisconsin only to follow that up with a loss to Indiana. When we look at Michigan State's two wins, we see one over Notre Dame, which doesn't look nearly as impressive when Duke shows up in South Bend the next week and does the same thing. The other win was a struggle against Furman. So we're looking at a Spartans team that's had to claw its way to just get to 2-2, and still have games remaining against Michigan and Ohio State. There's also games left against Northwestern, Maryland and Penn State teams that the Spartans just don't seem to be much better than this season. Even during this run where Michigan State has won at least 11 games in five of six seasons, there was that 7-6 sandwiched in between in 2012. I'm thinking we could have another one of those 2012 situations going on here.
1. Oregon: Things have already been bad for Oregon this year. The Ducks started 2-0 with wins over Cal-Davis and Virginia, but even in those wins, there were warning signs as the defense allowed 780 yards and 54 points in those games. Since then, things have only gotten worse! The Ducks have lost to Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State, allowing 557.3 yards per game and 42.3 points per game in the process. The defense is awful, the offense is out of sync and this week the Ducks could be turning to a freshman quarterback as they prepare to take on a Washington defense that just tore Stanford to shreds. Oh, and aside from that Washington game, the Ducks still need to play Stanford, USC and Utah. I still believe Oregon will find four more wins this year and get to a bowl game, but honestly, if they end up 5-7 or worse, I won't be surprised either. I just haven't seen anything from this team to convince me the situation will improve this year.
















